Daily Morning Report

Friday, May 26–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor attitudes are a bit more upbeat to end the trading week, on reports that U.S. lawmakers are moving closer to a deal to raise the U.S. government’s debt limit. The Wall Street Journal reported Republican and Democrat leaders are narrowing their differences and are zeroing in on a two-year spending deal that would raise the debt limit for two years. Lawmakers are hoping to see a deal pass through Congress next week.

A feature in the marketplace Thursday was the big rally in Nvidia stock following its strong earnings report. Some stock analysts and fund managers are saying the Nvidia stock rally is a wake- up call: artificial intelligence (AI) will have a bigger impact on global society than the advent of the internet nearly 30 years ago.

The U.S. data point of the day is the personal income and outlays report for April, including the important personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price indexes. Personal income is seen up 0.4% from March. The PCE core price index is seen up 4.6%, year-on-year, which is the same as seen in the March report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker on a corrective pullback after hitting a two-month high Thursday. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $72.25 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.783%. 

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes durable goods orders, the advance economic indicators report and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,200.00 and then at the May high of 4,227.25. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,114.00 and then at the May low of 4,062.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly slightly in early U.S. trading and near this week’s eight-month high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 14,150.00 and then at 14,300.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 13,803.00 and then at this week’s low of 13,566.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer on short covering after hitting a 2.5-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 126 16/32 and then at 127 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 125 10/32 and then at 125 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a nine-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 113.12.5 and then at this week’s high of 113.30.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 112.27.0 and then at 112.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer on short covering after hitting a two-month low on Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0800 and then at this week’s high of 1.0848. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0721 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

July Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $74.73 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $70.67 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight. Risk aversion has abated late this week and that’s a positive for the grain markets. Short covering was featured overnight. The near-term technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, wheat and corn futures are all still overall bearish. However, corn bulls have momentum to suggest a market bottom is in place. It appears speculative bulls are already doing some early positioning for the first weather market scare of the growing season in corn and soybeans.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, May 25–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed to firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is getting more anxious as U.S. lawmakers and the Biden administration have not come to an agreement to extend the government debt limit. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has said the government could run out of money by June 1.

Reports said the Fitch credit-rating agency put the U.S. on watch for a possible downgrade. “Fitch still expects a resolution to the debt limit before the X-date (1 June),” the credit agency said in a report. Both Fitch and Moody’s currently rate the U.S. debt at top AAA and Aaa, respectively, while S&P ranks it at AA+ after a downgrade in 2011 amid debt-ceiling negotiations during that time.

In other overnight news, Germany’s economy, the workhorse of the European Union, slipped into recession in the first quarter. Germany’s 1Q GDP was revised to -0.3%. The German economy contracted by 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2022.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer hitting another two-month high overnight. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $73.25 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching around 3.7%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Chicago Fed national activity index, the second estimate of first-quarter GDP, pending home sales and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,200.00 and then at the February high of 4,244.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,114.00 and then at the May low of 4,062.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,979.25 and then at 14,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,566.50 and then at 13,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a 2.5-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 127 even and then at this week’s high of 127 24/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 125 29/32 and then at 125 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a nine-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 113.12.5 and then at this week’s high of 113.30.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 113.00.0 and then at 112.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower and hit a two-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0770 and then at this week’s high of 1.0848. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0700 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

July Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $74.73 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of $71.71 and then at this week’s low of $70.67. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Risk aversion in the marketplace over the U.S. debt-extension impasse and worries about rising Covid cases in China are bearish for the grains. The near-term technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, wheat and corn futures are all still bearish. However, corn bulls have momentum to suggest a market bottom is in place.       

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, May 24–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. A report Tuesday afternoon said President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy have not made much progress on the U.S. debt-ceiling extension discussions. Another report said government spending is the main divisive issue between Republicans and Democrats. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen this week reiterated the U.S. government could run out of money by June 1 if no new debt-extension deal is reached.

In a rare development, traders and investors are shunning shorter-term U.S. Treasury bills (less than one-year maturities) over fears of a U.S. government default on that debt. This has caused high-grade U.S. corporate bonds to trade at a yield discount to U.S. Treasury bills. U.S. Treasury debt up to now had been considered the safest investment in the world.

Meantime, one report said Covid-19 is flaring up again in China and infections will get worse before they get better. The report said up to 65 million new cases a day could occur in China this summer. China government officials months ago stopped giving the public information on the Covid situation.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher and hitting another two-month high overnight. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $74.50 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.684%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the FOMC minutes and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,166.25 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,120.00 and then at 4,100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback after hitting an 8.5-month high Tuesday. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,979.25 and then at 14,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,628.25 and then at 13,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a nine-week low Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 127 24/32 and then at 128 6/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 126 18/32 and then at this week’s low of 126 6/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a nine-week low Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the this week’s high of 113.30.0 and then at 114.05.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 113.13.0 and then at this week’s low of 113.04.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker and hit a two-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0848 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0750 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

July Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of $71.71 and then at this week’s low of $70.67. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. Risk aversion in the marketplace over the U.S. debt-extension impasse and worries about rising Covid cases in China are bearish for the grains at mid-week. The near-term technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, SRW wheat and corn futures are all still bearish. HRW wheat is now also bearish.       

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, May 23–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Reports said President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy on Monday afternoon had productive talks on the U.S. debt-ceiling extension. Both are scheduled to meet again this week on the matter. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has reiterated that the U.S. government could run out of money by June 1 if no new debt-extension deal is reached.

In overnight news, the Euro zone May composite purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 53.3, which was slightly less than expectations. The April reading was 54.1. A number above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector.

Gold prices are down today and near the recent two-month low as the U.S. dollar index surges and as Federal Reserve officials are generally still leaning hawkish on U.S. monetary policy.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher and hitting a two-month high overnight. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $72.20 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.72%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes, the U.S. flash manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indexes, the Richmond Fed business survey, and new residential sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the May high of 4,227.25 and then at the February high of 4,244.00. Support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 4,186.50 and then at 4,161.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early U.S. trading after hitting an 8.5-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 14,000.00 and then at 14,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 13,794.25 and then at 13,628.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a nine-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 126 28/32 and then at Monday’s high of 127 24/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 126 9/32 and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a nine-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 113.17.0 and then at Monday’s high of 113.30.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 113.00.0 and then at 112.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0848 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at the May low of 1.0778 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

July Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $73.89 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $70.67 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Short covering was featured Monday. The near-term technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, SRW wheat and corn futures are all still bearish. HRW wheat is now also bearish. Seasonal price studies at present favor the grain market bears. Weather in the U.S. Midwest remains generally bearish for corn and soybeans and neutral for wheat.      

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff