Daily Morning Report

Friday, May 12–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is not robust to end the trading week. Regional banking turmoil and the specter of the U.S. government running out of money by June 1 loom over the marketplace. Reports said a planned meeting between President Biden and congressional leaders set for today has been pushed into next week.

There are also growing concerns about a U.S. and/or global economic recession. News out of China adds to those concerns. Broker SP Angel reports: “China to export deflation as manufacturers overproduce into falling local demand.” Data alongside anecdotal evidence suggests the ramp-up of manufacturing, post Covid Lockdown, has been met with poor local demand. “Discounted goods will be increasingly sold into international markets, indicating a return to the export of product deflation around the world. Worse still, a proportion of Chinese workers are reported to be paid per unit produced, indicating the threat of lower production will hit local demand,” said the broker.

Copper futures prices hit a 5.5-month low overnight. Less demand for copper, a leading global commercial construction component, also hints of a slowing world economy.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $71.00 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.412%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes import and export price indexes and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,173.25 and then at the May high of 4,206.25. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,112.25 and then at last week’s low of 4,062.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher and hit another eight-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,600.00 and then at 13,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,202.75 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 132 8/32 and then at the May high of 133 even. Shorter-term support lies at 131 even and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 116.07.0 and then at this week’s high of 116.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Thursday’s low of 115.24.0 and then at 115.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at this week’s high of 1.1080. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $73.89 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight. On tap today is the monthly USDA supply and demand report. Trading has turned choppy in the grains this week. Generally good planting and growing weather in the U.S. Midwest is bearish for the grains. The technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, SRW wheat and corn futures are bearish. HRW wheat is bullish.    

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, May 11–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are still monitoring the U.S. debt-limit-extension rhetoric coming from lawmakers. President Biden meets with congressional leaders again Friday, after little progress was made in a meeting earlier this week. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said its doubtful the Biden administration could avoid a government default without Congress agreeing on a plan to deal with the debt matter.

The U.S. data point of the day is the producer price index report for April, which is seen coming in at up 0.3% from March and compares to a drop of 0.5% in the March report, month-on-month.

The Bank of England met on its monetary policy today and raised its main interest rate by 0.25%, as expected.

In overnight news, China’s inflation fell to the lowest level in two years, as the April consumer price index rose 0.1%, year-on-year. That compares to a rise of 0.7% in the March report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $73.00 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.42%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,206.25 and then at the February high of 4.244.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,112.25 and then at last week’s low of 4,062.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher and hit an eight-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,500.00 and then at 13,650.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,202.75 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 131 13/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at this week’s low of 129 18/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 116.00.0 and then at 116.12.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 115.20.0 and then at 115.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at this week’s high of 1.1080. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $73.89 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $71.04 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mostly lower overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Trading has turned choppy in corn and soybeans. Generally good planting and growing weather in the U.S. Midwest is bearish for the grains. The technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, SRW wheat and corn futures are bearish. HRW wheat is bullish. The price spread between HRW and SRW is at a record high.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, May 10–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. data point of the week is Wednesday morning’s April consumer price index report, which is expected to come in at up 5.0%, year-on-year, which would be the same as reported in the March CPI. The April core CPI is forecast up 5.5% versus up 5.6% in the March report.

Meantime, President Biden on Tuesday afternoon met with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders to discuss raising or suspending the U.S. debt ceiling. No agreement was reached but the lawmakers and the president will meet again Friday. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently said the U.S. government could run out of money by June 1 if the debt ceiling is not raised. As the month of May winds down and if no U.S. debt extension is agreed upon, general marketplace anxiety will ratchet up.

In other news, China is expanding its gold reserves and may be abandoning the U.S. dollar. Nigel Green of deVere Group says such may be occurring after news that China’s gold reserves increased by 8.09 tons in April. Total gold stockpiles in China reached 2,076 tons after that nation added 120 tons in the five months through March. “Historically, China has been a major buyer of U.S. Treasuries, but this has seen a marked cooling off as Beijing swaps them out in favor of gold.”

Green said this strategic move will limit China’s dependence on the U.S. dollar, as trade and political relations with the U.S. deteriorate. “Buying gold rather than dollars may also signal moves by China that it is eventually seeking to replace the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Building stocks of the precious metal and allowing the Chinese yuan to be traded freely would weaken the U.S. dollar’s dominance as the global reserve currency.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $73.00 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.501%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, real earnings, the monthly Treasury budget statement and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,206.25 and then at the February high of 4.244.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,100.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,062.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 13,370.25 and then at 13,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,150.00 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 131 13/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 129 18/32 and then at the May low of 129 2/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 115.27.5 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 115.00.0 and then at 114.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1080 and then at the April high of 1.1129. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0966 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. A bullish V-bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart, to suggest a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $73.78 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $71.04 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker again overnight. Bulls are fading some more this week. Generally good planting and growing weather in the U.S. Midwest is bearish for the grains. The technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, SRW wheat and corn futures are bearish. HRW wheat has turned bullish.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, May 9–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Trading has turned choppy and sideways in the stock indexes.

President Biden today meets with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders to discuss raising or suspending the U.S. debt ceiling. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told lawmakers last week the U.S. could default on its debt as early as June 1 if Congress does not raise or suspend the debt limit before that time. No progress at today’s meeting would likely cause at least a bit of marketplace anxiety.

The U.S. data point of the week is Wednesday morning’s April consumer price index report, which is expected to come in at up 5.0%, year-on-year, which would be the same as reported in the March CPI. The April core CPI is forecast up 5.5% versus up 5.6% in the March report. A Federal Reserve banking lender survey released Monday showed bankers have curtailed loans to customers, which is likely to help tame inflation.

In other news Bitcoin prices are tumbling on reported blockchain network congestion that caused Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, to temporarily halt withdrawals.

Reports said China’s imports dropped 7.9% in April, which is a much larger decline than expected. China’s exports rose 8.5%–a bit stronger than forecasters expected.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $72.50 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.488%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and retail chain store sales reports, the NFIB small business optimism index and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,206.25 and then at the February high of 4.244.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,100.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,062.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 13,370.25 and then at 13,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,150.00 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 131 13/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 129 26/32 and then at the May low of 129 3/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 115.27.5 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Monday’s low of 115.05.0 and then at 115.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1080 and then at the April high of 1.1129. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0972 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. A bullish V-bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $73.69 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $71.04 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. Less risk aversion in the general marketplace this week is friendlier for the grains. The technical postures for soybeans and corn futures have improved a bit lately. HRW wheat has turned slightly bullish. However, SRW wheat and soybean meal and bean oil futures remain firmly bearish.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff