Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, May 16–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian stock markets were mixed overnight and European shares were mixed but mostly lower. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Focus today is on the scheduled U.S. debt-limit extension talks. Congressional leaders and President Biden will likely meet at the White House. The U.S. government could run out of money as soon as June 1.

In overnight news, China, the world’s second-largest economy, got a generally downbeat data dump Tuesday. Industrial production rose 5.6%, year-on-year, in April–short of market expectations for a 10.1% growth rate. Industrial production rose 3.9%, year-on-year in March. Fixed asset investment was also lower than expected at 4.7%, year-on-year, compared to expectations of up 5.2%. Chinese electricity output fell in March by 8.2%, year-on-year. Aluminum output weakened in March and steel output has been declining. Gas output for March also declined as did coal mine production.

The Eurozone reported its first-quarter GDP at up 0.1% from the fourth quarter and up 1.3%, year-on-year. Those numbers were right in line with market expectations.

The International Energy Agency has raised its 2023 global crude oil demand by 100,000 barrels per day, to 102 million barrels per day.

The U.S. data point of the day is the April retail sales report, which is expected to come in at up 0.8% from March and compares to the 1.0% decline seen in the March sales report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $71.00 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.472%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and retail chain store sales indexes, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing market index, and manufacturing and trade inventories.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,173.25 and then at the May high of 4,206.25. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,111.75 and then at the May low of 4,062.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and not far below the recent eight-month high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,500.00 and then at 13,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 13,350.00 and then at last week’s low of 13,202.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 130 24/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 129 18/32 and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 115.20.0 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 115.01.5 and then at 114.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded recently. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last Friday’s high of 1.0958 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.0867 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $71.79 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $69.41 and then at $68.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight, on corrective pullbacks from Monday’s gains. The “Turnaround Tuesday” phenomenon in the grains is at work today. The near-term technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, SRW wheat and corn futures are all still bearish. HRW wheat is solidly bullish.    

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, May 15–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

Focus this week is on the U.S. debt-limit extension talks between the White House and Congress. Reports said congressional leaders and President Biden will likely meet Tuesday. The U.S. government could run out of money as soon as June 1. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said over the weekend that progress is being made between Democrats and Republicans, in order to avoid a financially catastrophic U.S. government default on its debt obligations.

In overnight news, China’s central bank Monday said China’s economic growth in the second quarter will rebound sharply and that inflation levels will stay low due to less demand. In other news, Euro zone March industrial production fell 1.4%, year-on-year, which was more than forecast. The European Union sees Euro zone annual inflation at up 5.8% in 2023, up from a 5.6% rise in its previous forecast.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $70.25 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.485%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Empire State manufacturing survey and Treasury international capital data.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,173.25 and then at the May high of 4,206.25. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,111.75 and then at the May low of 4,062.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 13,494.25 and then at 13,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 13,202.75 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130 24/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at last week’s low of 129 18/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 115.20.0 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 115.01.5 and then at 114.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer after hitting a seven-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.0958 and then at  1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0850 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of $71.78 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $69.41 and then at $68.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher to solidly higher overnight, on short covering and perceived bargain hunting. A very shaky Russia-Ukraine grain-shipping deal that could collapse at any time is apparently turning more bullish for the grains. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections and crop progress reports. The technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, SRW wheat and corn futures are all bearish. HRW wheat is solidly bullish.    

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, May 12–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is not robust to end the trading week. Regional banking turmoil and the specter of the U.S. government running out of money by June 1 loom over the marketplace. Reports said a planned meeting between President Biden and congressional leaders set for today has been pushed into next week.

There are also growing concerns about a U.S. and/or global economic recession. News out of China adds to those concerns. Broker SP Angel reports: “China to export deflation as manufacturers overproduce into falling local demand.” Data alongside anecdotal evidence suggests the ramp-up of manufacturing, post Covid Lockdown, has been met with poor local demand. “Discounted goods will be increasingly sold into international markets, indicating a return to the export of product deflation around the world. Worse still, a proportion of Chinese workers are reported to be paid per unit produced, indicating the threat of lower production will hit local demand,” said the broker.

Copper futures prices hit a 5.5-month low overnight. Less demand for copper, a leading global commercial construction component, also hints of a slowing world economy.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $71.00 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.412%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes import and export price indexes and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,173.25 and then at the May high of 4,206.25. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,112.25 and then at last week’s low of 4,062.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher and hit another eight-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,600.00 and then at 13,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,202.75 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 132 8/32 and then at the May high of 133 even. Shorter-term support lies at 131 even and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 116.07.0 and then at this week’s high of 116.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Thursday’s low of 115.24.0 and then at 115.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at this week’s high of 1.1080. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $73.89 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight. On tap today is the monthly USDA supply and demand report. Trading has turned choppy in the grains this week. Generally good planting and growing weather in the U.S. Midwest is bearish for the grains. The technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, SRW wheat and corn futures are bearish. HRW wheat is bullish.    

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, May 11–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are still monitoring the U.S. debt-limit-extension rhetoric coming from lawmakers. President Biden meets with congressional leaders again Friday, after little progress was made in a meeting earlier this week. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said its doubtful the Biden administration could avoid a government default without Congress agreeing on a plan to deal with the debt matter.

The U.S. data point of the day is the producer price index report for April, which is seen coming in at up 0.3% from March and compares to a drop of 0.5% in the March report, month-on-month.

The Bank of England met on its monetary policy today and raised its main interest rate by 0.25%, as expected.

In overnight news, China’s inflation fell to the lowest level in two years, as the April consumer price index rose 0.1%, year-on-year. That compares to a rise of 0.7% in the March report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $73.00 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.42%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,206.25 and then at the February high of 4.244.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,112.25 and then at last week’s low of 4,062.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher and hit an eight-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,500.00 and then at 13,650.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,202.75 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 131 13/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at this week’s low of 129 18/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 116.00.0 and then at 116.12.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 115.20.0 and then at 115.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at this week’s high of 1.1080. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $73.89 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $71.04 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mostly lower overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Trading has turned choppy in corn and soybeans. Generally good planting and growing weather in the U.S. Midwest is bearish for the grains. The technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, SRW wheat and corn futures are bearish. HRW wheat is bullish. The price spread between HRW and SRW is at a record high.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff