Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, May 10–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. data point of the week is Wednesday morning’s April consumer price index report, which is expected to come in at up 5.0%, year-on-year, which would be the same as reported in the March CPI. The April core CPI is forecast up 5.5% versus up 5.6% in the March report.

Meantime, President Biden on Tuesday afternoon met with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders to discuss raising or suspending the U.S. debt ceiling. No agreement was reached but the lawmakers and the president will meet again Friday. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently said the U.S. government could run out of money by June 1 if the debt ceiling is not raised. As the month of May winds down and if no U.S. debt extension is agreed upon, general marketplace anxiety will ratchet up.

In other news, China is expanding its gold reserves and may be abandoning the U.S. dollar. Nigel Green of deVere Group says such may be occurring after news that China’s gold reserves increased by 8.09 tons in April. Total gold stockpiles in China reached 2,076 tons after that nation added 120 tons in the five months through March. “Historically, China has been a major buyer of U.S. Treasuries, but this has seen a marked cooling off as Beijing swaps them out in favor of gold.”

Green said this strategic move will limit China’s dependence on the U.S. dollar, as trade and political relations with the U.S. deteriorate. “Buying gold rather than dollars may also signal moves by China that it is eventually seeking to replace the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Building stocks of the precious metal and allowing the Chinese yuan to be traded freely would weaken the U.S. dollar’s dominance as the global reserve currency.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $73.00 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.501%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, real earnings, the monthly Treasury budget statement and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,206.25 and then at the February high of 4.244.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,100.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,062.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 13,370.25 and then at 13,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,150.00 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 131 13/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 129 18/32 and then at the May low of 129 2/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 115.27.5 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 115.00.0 and then at 114.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1080 and then at the April high of 1.1129. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0966 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. A bullish V-bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart, to suggest a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $73.78 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $71.04 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker again overnight. Bulls are fading some more this week. Generally good planting and growing weather in the U.S. Midwest is bearish for the grains. The technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, SRW wheat and corn futures are bearish. HRW wheat has turned bullish.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, May 9–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Trading has turned choppy and sideways in the stock indexes.

President Biden today meets with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders to discuss raising or suspending the U.S. debt ceiling. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told lawmakers last week the U.S. could default on its debt as early as June 1 if Congress does not raise or suspend the debt limit before that time. No progress at today’s meeting would likely cause at least a bit of marketplace anxiety.

The U.S. data point of the week is Wednesday morning’s April consumer price index report, which is expected to come in at up 5.0%, year-on-year, which would be the same as reported in the March CPI. The April core CPI is forecast up 5.5% versus up 5.6% in the March report. A Federal Reserve banking lender survey released Monday showed bankers have curtailed loans to customers, which is likely to help tame inflation.

In other news Bitcoin prices are tumbling on reported blockchain network congestion that caused Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, to temporarily halt withdrawals.

Reports said China’s imports dropped 7.9% in April, which is a much larger decline than expected. China’s exports rose 8.5%–a bit stronger than forecasters expected.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $72.50 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.488%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and retail chain store sales reports, the NFIB small business optimism index and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,206.25 and then at the February high of 4.244.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,100.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,062.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 13,370.25 and then at 13,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,150.00 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 131 13/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 129 26/32 and then at the May low of 129 3/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 115.27.5 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Monday’s low of 115.05.0 and then at 115.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1080 and then at the April high of 1.1129. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0972 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. A bullish V-bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $73.69 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $71.04 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. Less risk aversion in the general marketplace this week is friendlier for the grains. The technical postures for soybeans and corn futures have improved a bit lately. HRW wheat has turned slightly bullish. However, SRW wheat and soybean meal and bean oil futures remain firmly bearish.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, May 8–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. There is less risk aversion in the general marketplace to start the trading week. U.S. banking stocks have recovered some of their recent losses. Banking analysts will today closely scrutinize the Federal Reserve’s first-quarter Senior Loan Officer Survey, to get a gauge on how much the banking industry has pulled back in its lending practices the past few months.

The U.S. data point of the week is Wednesday morning’s April consumer price index report, which is expected to come in at up 5.0%, year-on-year, which would be the same as reported in the March CPI. The April core CPI is forecast at up 5.5% versus up 5.6% in the March report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $73.00 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.462%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index, monthly wholesale trade and the ISM semiannual report on business and the economy.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,206.25 and then at the February high of 4.244.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,100.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,062.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 13,370.25 and then at 13,500.00 On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,150.00 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131 13/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at Friday’s low of 130 13/32 and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 115.27.5 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Friday’s low of 115.13.5 and then at 115.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the April high of 1.1129 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at last week’s low of 1.0972. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on more short covering. A bullish V-bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $74.00 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $71.04 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight, on more short covering. Less risk aversion in the general marketplace early this week is friendly for the grains. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the weekly crop progress reports. The technical postures for all the grain markets remain bearish.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, May 5–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins, following losses posted every day this week. Risk aversion remains elevated to end the trading week, mainly on concerns over the health of the U.S. banking sector—especially regional banks. Reports said the U.S. government is investigating potential trader manipulation of banking stocks.

The marketplace is awaiting Friday morning’s April U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to come in at up 180,000 versus a rise of 236,000 in the March report. The U.S. ADP national employment report on Wednesday came in strong, showing 296,000 jobs were created in April, almost double the forecast. 

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $70.50 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching around 3.5%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the global services PMI and consumer credit.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of 4,167.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,206.25. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,062.25 and then at 4,025.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,370.25 and then at 13,500.00 On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at the April low of 12,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 132 even and then at this week’s high of 133 even. Shorter-term support lies at 131 even and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 116.12.0 and then at 116.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 116.00.0 and then at Wednesday’s low of 115.17.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the April high of 1.1129 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at this week’s low of 1.0972. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. It appears the bears are exhausted after the recent downdraft. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of $71.79 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $70.37 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight, on short covering. Keener risk aversion in the general marketplace this week has kept the grain market bulls timid. The technical postures for all the grain markets remain bearish. Generally good corn and soybean planting weather so far is bearish for the grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff