Daily Morning Report

Monday, May 8–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. There is less risk aversion in the general marketplace to start the trading week. U.S. banking stocks have recovered some of their recent losses. Banking analysts will today closely scrutinize the Federal Reserve’s first-quarter Senior Loan Officer Survey, to get a gauge on how much the banking industry has pulled back in its lending practices the past few months.

The U.S. data point of the week is Wednesday morning’s April consumer price index report, which is expected to come in at up 5.0%, year-on-year, which would be the same as reported in the March CPI. The April core CPI is forecast at up 5.5% versus up 5.6% in the March report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $73.00 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.462%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index, monthly wholesale trade and the ISM semiannual report on business and the economy.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,206.25 and then at the February high of 4.244.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,100.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,062.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 13,370.25 and then at 13,500.00 On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,150.00 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131 13/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at Friday’s low of 130 13/32 and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 115.27.5 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Friday’s low of 115.13.5 and then at 115.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the April high of 1.1129 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at last week’s low of 1.0972. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on more short covering. A bullish V-bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $74.00 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $71.04 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight, on more short covering. Less risk aversion in the general marketplace early this week is friendly for the grains. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the weekly crop progress reports. The technical postures for all the grain markets remain bearish.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, May 5–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins, following losses posted every day this week. Risk aversion remains elevated to end the trading week, mainly on concerns over the health of the U.S. banking sector—especially regional banks. Reports said the U.S. government is investigating potential trader manipulation of banking stocks.

The marketplace is awaiting Friday morning’s April U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to come in at up 180,000 versus a rise of 236,000 in the March report. The U.S. ADP national employment report on Wednesday came in strong, showing 296,000 jobs were created in April, almost double the forecast. 

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $70.50 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching around 3.5%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the global services PMI and consumer credit.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of 4,167.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,206.25. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,062.25 and then at 4,025.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,370.25 and then at 13,500.00 On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at the April low of 12,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 132 even and then at this week’s high of 133 even. Shorter-term support lies at 131 even and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 116.12.0 and then at 116.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 116.00.0 and then at Wednesday’s low of 115.17.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the April high of 1.1129 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at this week’s low of 1.0972. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. It appears the bears are exhausted after the recent downdraft. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of $71.79 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $70.37 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight, on short covering. Keener risk aversion in the general marketplace this week has kept the grain market bulls timid. The technical postures for all the grain markets remain bearish. Generally good corn and soybean planting weather so far is bearish for the grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, May 4–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion is keener late this week following another interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve Wednesday afternoon. The 0.25% hike in the Fed Funds rate was widely expected but it was no help for the U.S. banking system, parts of which are shaky. Reports now say PacWest Bancorp, a California-based lender, is in trouble. Its stock price saw a 60% decline in after-hours trading Wednesday. The bank is reported to be considering strategic options including a sale. PacWest is much smaller in size compared to failed Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank. Still, this news is keeping U.S. banking turmoil on the front burner of the marketplace and keeping traders and investors nervous. Reads a Barrons headline today: “Powell says banking system is ‘sound and resilient;’ try telling that to PacWest investors.”

Comex gold futures prices hit a new record high of $2,085.40 an ounce overnight, on safe-haven demand.

The European Central Bank is meeting Thursday. The ECB is also expected to raise its main interest rate by a quarter-point. 

The marketplace is now looking forward to Friday’s April U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to come in at up 180,000 versus a rise of 236,000 in the March report. The U.S. ADP national employment report on Wednesday came in strong, showing 296,000 jobs were created in April, almost double the forecast. 

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices hit a 1.5-year low of $63.64 overnight but rebounded and are now a bit firmer and trading around $69.00 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.367%. Treasury yields have dipped this week on flight-to-quality buying amid the wobbly U.S. banking stocks.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the international trade report, preliminary productivity and costs, the global manufacturing PMI and the monthly chain store sales index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of 4,167.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,206.25. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,068.75 and then at 4,050.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,370.25 and then at 13,500.00 On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at the April low of 12,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 133 even and then at 134 even. Shorter-term support lies at 132 even and then at Wednesday’s low of 131 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a four-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 116.25.5 and then at the contract high of 117.01.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 116.00.0 and then at Wednesday’s low of 115.17.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the April high of 1.1129 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at this week’s low of 1.0972. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and hit a 1.5-year low of $63.64 in early U.S. trading. Prices are presently trading around $68.75. It appears the bears are now exhausted, however. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $70.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of $71.79. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $67.50 and then at $66.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Keener risk aversion in the general marketplace this week is keeping the grain market bulls timid. The technical postures for all the grain markets remain fully bearish. Generally good corn and soybean planting weather so far is bearish for the grains. Dry planting weather in most of the Corn Belt reminds grain market bears of the old adage: “Plant in the dust and your bins will bust.”

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, May 3–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion has up-ticked at mid-week, following solid losses in the U.S. stock market Tuesday, led by banking shares. After a period of calm, there are renewed worries about the U.S. banking sector, especially regional banks, whose shares dropped sharply Tuesday. Also, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned the U.S. government could be in default on some of its payments by June 1 if the debt limit is not increased. President Biden will meet congressional leaders at the White House next week to discuss the matter.

Another feature in the marketplace this week is plunging crude oil prices that hit a five-week low overnight. Concerns about slowing global economic growth have hit the crude oil market hard. Nymex crude is presently down over $2.00 on the day and trading at $69.55 a barrel. Nymex crude is presently down around $14 a barrel from the April high.

On deck today is the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The FOMC is expected to raise its main U.S. interest rate (the Fed funds rate) by 0.25%. T

Said analyst Craig Erlam of OANDA in a morning email dispatch: “Today was always likely to mark the end of the U.S. central bank’s tightening cycle–not that it has explicitly signaled this–but we’ve now reached a stage in which every rate hike could have unwanted and unintended consequences. Turbulence in the banking system in March is evidence of that and the rescue of First Republic Bank by JP Morgan in recent days, and the sell-off that followed in other regional banks, suggests significant stress remains. Which begs the question, why would the Fed opt to tighten at all today when it can see that the financial system is under strain, credit conditions have tightened as a result and the lag with which monetary policy operates means they don’t yet fully understand what the full impact of their recent rate hikes has been.”

The European Central Bank also meets Thursday. The ECB is also expected to raise its main interest rate by a quarter-point. Also, on Friday comes the U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department.

The other key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.405%. Treasury yields have dipped this week on flight-to-quality buying amid the wobbly U.S. banking stocks.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, the U.S. services PMI and the ISM report on business services.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,206.25 and then at the February high of 4,244.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,105.50 and then at last week’s low of 4,068.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,370.25 and then at 13,500.00 On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,110.25 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 132 6/32 and then at last week’s high of 132 21/32. Shorter-term support lies at 131 even and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 116.00.0 and then at 116.08.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 115.17.5 and then at 115.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the April high of 1.1129 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at this week’s low of 1.0972. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading fast. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $71.79 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $69.00 and then at $68.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. Keener risk aversion in the general marketplace at mid-week is keeping the grain market bulls timid. The technical postures for all the grain markets remain fully bearish. Generally good corn and soybean planting weather so far is bearish for the grains. Dry planting weather in most of the Corn Belt reminds grain market bears of the old adage: “Plant in the dust and your bins will bust.”

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff