Daily Morning Report

Thursday, May 18–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins, following their good gains Wednesday. Trader and investor risk appetite has up-ticked late this week. The U.S. debt-limit extension talks are reportedly going better. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have both made upbeat comments on getting a deal done before June 1. Reads a Barrons headline today: “Debt ceiling optimism brings markets back to life. It’s not without risks.” The story details that while the debt matter getting fixed is a positive, the potential negatives are still lingering, including a still-hawkish Federal Reserve, recession concerns, and U.S. and European banking jitters.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher and at a seven-week high. The greenback bulls have momentum. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $72.50 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.593%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, existing home sales and leading economic indicators.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a three-week high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the May high of 4,206.25 and then at the February high of 4,244.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,150.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,111.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit an eight-month high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,750.00 and then at 13,850.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 13,474.25 and then at this week’s low of 13,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 129 21/32 and then at this week’s high of 130 24/32. Shorter-term support lies at 128 even and then at 127 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 115.03.0 and then at this week’s high of 115.18.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the May low of 114.10.0 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower and hit a six-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading fast. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0926 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0800 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $73.89 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $71.00 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. Bulls have faded badly this week. Corn and soybeans are now well oversold, on a near-term technical basis, and due for corrective bounces soon. Buying call options in corn and/or soybeans at present seems like a good weather market strategy, heading into the key growing season in the U.S. for both. More years than not there is a weather market scare in the summertime. The near-term technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, SRW wheat and corn futures are all bearish. HRW wheat is still bullish. Seasonal price studies at present favor the grain market bears. Weather in the U.S. Midwest remains generally bearish for corn and soybeans and neutral for wheat. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.    

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, May 17–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite is a bit keener at mid-week. The U.S. debt-limit extension talks held Tuesday afternoon were upbeat. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy named top emissaries to negotiate a deal to avert an unprecedented national default. Biden cut short an upcoming overseas trip in hopes of closing an agreement before a June 1 deadline.

The marketplace continues to monitor comments made this week by Federal Reserve officials. While their opinions have been mixed regarding continuing to tighten U.S. monetary policy or to pause, traders and investors generally view their collective remarks as still leaning slightly hawkish.

In overnight news, the Euro zone April consumer price index came in at up 7.0%, year-on-year, which was right in line with market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $71.25 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.528%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, new residential construction and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,156.25 and then at last week’s high of 4,173.25. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,111.75 and then at the May low of 4,062.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and not far below Tuesday’s eight-month high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,554.50 and then at 13,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,350.00 and then at last week’s low of 13,202.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 130 24/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 128 22/32 and then at 128 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 115.18.5 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 114.23.0 and then at 114.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower and hit a six-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0926 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0800 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $71.79 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $69.41 and then at $68.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Bulls are fading at mid-week. The near-term technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, SRW wheat and corn futures are all bearish. HRW wheat is solidly bullish. Seasonal price studies at present favor the grain market bears. Weather in the U.S. Midwest remains generally bearish for corn and soybeans and neutral for wheat.    

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, May 16–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian stock markets were mixed overnight and European shares were mixed but mostly lower. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Focus today is on the scheduled U.S. debt-limit extension talks. Congressional leaders and President Biden will likely meet at the White House. The U.S. government could run out of money as soon as June 1.

In overnight news, China, the world’s second-largest economy, got a generally downbeat data dump Tuesday. Industrial production rose 5.6%, year-on-year, in April–short of market expectations for a 10.1% growth rate. Industrial production rose 3.9%, year-on-year in March. Fixed asset investment was also lower than expected at 4.7%, year-on-year, compared to expectations of up 5.2%. Chinese electricity output fell in March by 8.2%, year-on-year. Aluminum output weakened in March and steel output has been declining. Gas output for March also declined as did coal mine production.

The Eurozone reported its first-quarter GDP at up 0.1% from the fourth quarter and up 1.3%, year-on-year. Those numbers were right in line with market expectations.

The International Energy Agency has raised its 2023 global crude oil demand by 100,000 barrels per day, to 102 million barrels per day.

The U.S. data point of the day is the April retail sales report, which is expected to come in at up 0.8% from March and compares to the 1.0% decline seen in the March sales report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $71.00 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.472%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and retail chain store sales indexes, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing market index, and manufacturing and trade inventories.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,173.25 and then at the May high of 4,206.25. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,111.75 and then at the May low of 4,062.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and not far below the recent eight-month high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,500.00 and then at 13,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 13,350.00 and then at last week’s low of 13,202.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 130 24/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 129 18/32 and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 115.20.0 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 115.01.5 and then at 114.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded recently. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last Friday’s high of 1.0958 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.0867 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $71.79 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $69.41 and then at $68.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight, on corrective pullbacks from Monday’s gains. The “Turnaround Tuesday” phenomenon in the grains is at work today. The near-term technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, SRW wheat and corn futures are all still bearish. HRW wheat is solidly bullish.    

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, May 15–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

Focus this week is on the U.S. debt-limit extension talks between the White House and Congress. Reports said congressional leaders and President Biden will likely meet Tuesday. The U.S. government could run out of money as soon as June 1. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said over the weekend that progress is being made between Democrats and Republicans, in order to avoid a financially catastrophic U.S. government default on its debt obligations.

In overnight news, China’s central bank Monday said China’s economic growth in the second quarter will rebound sharply and that inflation levels will stay low due to less demand. In other news, Euro zone March industrial production fell 1.4%, year-on-year, which was more than forecast. The European Union sees Euro zone annual inflation at up 5.8% in 2023, up from a 5.6% rise in its previous forecast.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $70.25 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.485%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Empire State manufacturing survey and Treasury international capital data.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,173.25 and then at the May high of 4,206.25. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,111.75 and then at the May low of 4,062.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 13,494.25 and then at 13,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 13,202.75 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130 24/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at last week’s low of 129 18/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 115.20.0 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 115.01.5 and then at 114.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer after hitting a seven-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.0958 and then at  1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0850 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of $71.78 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $69.41 and then at $68.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher to solidly higher overnight, on short covering and perceived bargain hunting. A very shaky Russia-Ukraine grain-shipping deal that could collapse at any time is apparently turning more bullish for the grains. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections and crop progress reports. The technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, SRW wheat and corn futures are all bearish. HRW wheat is solidly bullish.    

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff