Daily Morning Report

Thursday, April 20–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion is more elevated this week, which has helped to prompt selling pressure in much of the raw commodity sector, led by crude oil prices dropping to a three-week low overnight.

Said analyst Craig Erlam of OANDA: “We’re now at a pivotal point in the (central bank monetary policies) tightening cycle, one made all the more difficult by the mini banking crisis last month and the ripple effects it will have on credit and the economy over the course of the rest of the year. Central banks, the Fed in particular, are now at even greater risk of overtightening just as the data may show price pressures easing considerably. The fear of that not materializing will probably drive another round of rate hikes next month, after which discussions will likely be far more balanced. It’s this uncertainty that appears to be driving the most recent period of choppy trading.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $77.75 a barrel. Oil prices have backed off recently on demand concerns amid global economic recession worries. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.558%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, existing home sales, and leading economic indicators. Several Federal Reserve officials are also scheduled to speak today.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart, but now just barely. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,173.50 and then at this week’s high of 4,198.25. Support for active traders is seen at the April low of 4,096.50 and then at 4,050.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,165.75 and then at the April high of 13,348.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the April low of 12,925.50 and then at 12,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen this week’s high of 130 31/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 129 20/32 and then at this week’s low of 129 4/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 114.21.5 and then at this week’s high of 114.31.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 114.07.0 and then at this week’s low of 113.30.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1038 and then at last week’s high of 1.1114. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0947 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. A four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $78.89 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $77.00 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Keener risk aversion this week has squelched the grain market bulls. Soybean and corn market bulls still have the chart advantage. SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the very slight chart edge. Focus of grain traders is on weather in the U.S. Midwest, Plains and mid-South as corn and soybean planting gets under way. A serious cold snap in the upper and central U.S. later this week could produce some freeze damage to early planted crops and to wheat.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, April 19–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Some hawkish Fed-speak Tuesday has dampened trader and investor spirits at mid-week. Non-voting members of the FOMC argued in favor of higher U.S. interest rates for longer. Fed Bank of Atlanta President Rapahel Bostic told CNBC he would like to see one more rate hike and then hold rates above 5% for a period of time to cool down inflation. Meantime, Fed Bank of St Louis President James Bullard told Reuters recession fears are overblown and that he supports U.S. rates to rise into a 5.5-5.75% range–up from the current 4.75-5.0%. The banking turmoil of a few weeks ago settled down due in part to notions the Federal Reserve may be less hawkish due to the banking worries and the risk of a U.S. recession. The hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials may once again raise the specter of more banking problems that may come with higher interest rates. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline: “Few lenders hedged against risk of Fed rate increases.”

In overnight news, Euro zone consumer price inflation in March rose 6.9%, year-on-year, which was right in line with market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $79.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.616%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the Federal Reserve’s beige book.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a two-month high Tuesday. A price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,198.25 and then at the February high of 4,244.00. Support for active traders is seen at the April low of 4,096.50 and then at 4,050.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,186.75 and then at the April high of 13,348.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the April low of 12,925.50 and then at 12,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130 1/32 and then at this week’s high of 130 31/32. Shorter-term support lies at 129 even and then at 128 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 114.14.5 and then at this week’s high of 114.31.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 114.00.0 and then at 113.26.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1038 and then at last week’s high of 1.1114. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0947 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a more-than-two-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. A four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $81.18 and then at this week’s high of $82.71. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $78.00 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. Keener risk aversion at mid-week has squelched the grain market bulls. Soybean and corn market bulls still have the firm chart advantage. SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the slight chart edge. Focus of grain traders is on weather in the U.S. Midwest, Plains and mid-South as corn and soybean planting gets under way. A serious cold snap in the upper and central U.S. later this week could produce some freeze damage to early planted crops and to wheat.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, April 18–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are still in price uptrends on the daily bar charts and not far below their highs for this year.

In overnight news, China’s economic growth in the first quarter came in better than expected at up 4.5%, year-on-year. That was above expectations for a gain of 4.0%. In the fourth quarter of 2022, China’s GDP expanded by only 2.2%, as the world’s second-largest economy was still hamstrung by Covid restrictions. In a reflection of current sentiment toward China by many Western nations, a Wall Street Journal headline today reads: “G-7 seeks to lessen economic reliance on Beijing.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker and trading around $80.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.585%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes, and new residential construction.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up and hit a two-month high in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the February high of 4,244.00 and then at 4,275.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,148.00 and then at the April low of 4,096.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the April high of 13,348.75 and then at 13,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,076.75 and then at the April low of 12,925.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 130 even and then at this week’s high of 130 31/32. Shorter-term support lies at 129 6/32 and then at 128 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 114.31.0 and then at 115.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 114.08.0 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1114 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0947 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $82.71 and then at the April high of $83.53. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight. Soybean and corn market bulls have the firm chart advantage and have momentum. SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have regained their slight chart edge as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been restarted. Focus of grain traders is on weather in the U.S. Midwest, Plains and mid-South as corn and soybean planting gets under way. A serious cold snap in the upper and central U.S. later this week could produce some freeze damage to early planted crops and to wheat.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, April 17–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are still in price uptrends on the daily bar charts and near the highs for this year.

In overnight news, China’s central bank kept its interest rates and monetary policy unchanged.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker and trading around $82.25 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.535%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Empire State manufacturing survey, the NAHB housing market index and Treasury international capital data.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the April high of 4,189.00 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,130.00 and then at the April low of 4,096.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 13,255.00 and then at the April high of 13,348.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at the April low of 12,925.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 131 even and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 114.31.0 and then at 115.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 114.16.0 and then at 114.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Friday hit a 12-month high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1114 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1000 and then at 1.0954. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the April high of $83.53 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $81.00 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the weekly USDA crop progress reports. Soybean and corn market bulls have the chart advantage. SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have lost their slight chart edge as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Focus of grain traders is on weather in the U.S. Midwest, Plains and mid-South as corn and soybean planting gets under way. A serious cold snap in the upper and central U.S. later this week could produce some freeze damage to early planted crops and to wheat.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff