Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, April 18–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are still in price uptrends on the daily bar charts and not far below their highs for this year.

In overnight news, China’s economic growth in the first quarter came in better than expected at up 4.5%, year-on-year. That was above expectations for a gain of 4.0%. In the fourth quarter of 2022, China’s GDP expanded by only 2.2%, as the world’s second-largest economy was still hamstrung by Covid restrictions. In a reflection of current sentiment toward China by many Western nations, a Wall Street Journal headline today reads: “G-7 seeks to lessen economic reliance on Beijing.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker and trading around $80.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.585%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes, and new residential construction.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up and hit a two-month high in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the February high of 4,244.00 and then at 4,275.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,148.00 and then at the April low of 4,096.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the April high of 13,348.75 and then at 13,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,076.75 and then at the April low of 12,925.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 130 even and then at this week’s high of 130 31/32. Shorter-term support lies at 129 6/32 and then at 128 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 114.31.0 and then at 115.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 114.08.0 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1114 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0947 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $82.71 and then at the April high of $83.53. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight. Soybean and corn market bulls have the firm chart advantage and have momentum. SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have regained their slight chart edge as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been restarted. Focus of grain traders is on weather in the U.S. Midwest, Plains and mid-South as corn and soybean planting gets under way. A serious cold snap in the upper and central U.S. later this week could produce some freeze damage to early planted crops and to wheat.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, April 17–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are still in price uptrends on the daily bar charts and near the highs for this year.

In overnight news, China’s central bank kept its interest rates and monetary policy unchanged.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker and trading around $82.25 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.535%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Empire State manufacturing survey, the NAHB housing market index and Treasury international capital data.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the April high of 4,189.00 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,130.00 and then at the April low of 4,096.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 13,255.00 and then at the April high of 13,348.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at the April low of 12,925.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 131 even and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 114.31.0 and then at 115.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 114.16.0 and then at 114.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Friday hit a 12-month high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1114 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1000 and then at 1.0954. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the April high of $83.53 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $81.00 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the weekly USDA crop progress reports. Soybean and corn market bulls have the chart advantage. SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have lost their slight chart edge as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Focus of grain traders is on weather in the U.S. Midwest, Plains and mid-South as corn and soybean planting gets under way. A serious cold snap in the upper and central U.S. later this week could produce some freeze damage to early planted crops and to wheat.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, April 14–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are still in price uptrends on the daily bar charts.

The U.S. data point of the day will be the March retail sales report, seen coming in at down 0.5%, versus a decline of 0.4% in the February report.

In overnight news, the International Energy Agency said global crude oil demand will outstrip supply this quarter, following OPEC’s recent surprise move to cut its collective oil production.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower and hitting a 2.5-month low. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit firmer and trading around $82.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.435%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes retail sales, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, manufacturing and trade inventories, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,177.75 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at the April low of 4,096.50 and then at 4,078.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,241.75 and then at the April high of 13,348.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,925.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 133 1/32 and then at this week’s high of 133 19/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 131 15/32 and then at 131 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 116.00.0 and then at this week’s high of 116.08.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 115.06.5 and then at 115.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a 12-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1150 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 1.1016 and then at 1.0954. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $83.53 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $81.00 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to weaker overnight. Soybean and corn market bulls have the chart advantage. SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have lost their slight chart edge as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Focus of grain traders is on weather in the U.S. Midwest and mid-South as corn and soybean planting gets under way.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, April 13–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Traders have mostly digested Wednesday morning’s U.S. consumer price index report for March that came in at up 5.0%, year-on-year, compared to market expectations for a rise of 5.1%. However, the core CPI number came in 0.1% higher than expected, which tempered trader/investor optimism as the trading session wore on Wednesday. On deck today is the U.S. producer price index report for March, which is forecast at unchanged from February.

In overnight news, China’s exports in March rose 14.8%, year-on-year. That was way above the 7% decline the marketplace expected. The big rise came as China’s export business to Russia and southeast Asia jumped. China’s imports dropped by 1.4% in March but were above the 5% decline expected.

Euro zone industrial production in February beat market expectations, at up 1.5% from January. A rise of 0.7% was expected.

Recent data from the world’s major economies has proven better than expected, despite many economists still predicting a global downturn. Reads a Barron’s headline today: “Recession talk has returned; why markets are shrugging.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower and hitting a 2.5-month low. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker after hitting a five-month high Wednesday, presently trading around $83.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.434%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart has at least temporarily stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,177.75 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at the April low of 4,096.50 and then at 4,078.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has at least temporarily stalled out. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,241.75 and then at the April high of 13,348.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,900.00 and then at 12,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 132 24/32 and then at this week’s high of 133 19/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 131 15/32 and then at 131 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 115.30.0 and then at this week’s high of 116.08.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 115.12.0 and then at this week’s low of 115.06.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a 2.5-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the April high of 1.1019 and then at 1.1050. Shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 1.0954 and then at this week’s low of 1.0874. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a five-month high on Wednesday. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $83.53 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $81.00 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Soybean and corn market bulls have the chart advantage. SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the slight chart edge amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Focus of grain traders is on weather in the U.S. Midwest and mid-South as corn and soybean planting gets under way.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff