Daily Morning Report

Monday, April 10–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. It’s a calmer start to the trading week, following a three-day holiday weekend for most traders and investors. The U.S. Labor Department’s March jobs report issued Friday morning came in about as expected, showing a non-farm payrolls rise of 236,000 jobs versus a gain of 311,000 in the February report. Still, Friday’s jobs numbers fall into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy hawks, who want to see further interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve.

The U.S. data point of the week will be Wednesday morning’s consumer price index report for March, which is expected to show an annual rise of 5.1%, compared to a rise of 6.0% in the February report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $81.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.383%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index and monthly wholesale trade.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,171.75 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,096.50 and then at 4,078.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,200.00 and then at last week’s high of 13,348.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at last week’s low of 13,953.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 134 even and then at the contract high of 134 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at 132 16/32 and then at 132 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the contract high of 117.01.5 and then at 117.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 115.16.0 and then at 115.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at last week’s high of 1.1019. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at last week’s low of 1.0835. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $81.81 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $79.00 and then at $78.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the weekly USDA crop progress report. Soybean and corn market bulls have the chart advantage. Meantime, SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the slight chart edge amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, April 6–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite this week has down-ticked. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “Bank failures; high inflation; rising rates. Is the resilient jobs market about to crack?”

In overnight news, reports said that as the price of gold is back above $2,000 an ounce the countries of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa all plan to increase their gold reserves. This is due to “an increasingly bipolar geopolitical world—exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, says an ING analyst. He added such is a “structural positive for gold and structural negative for the U.S. dollar.”

The U.S. data point of the week is Friday’s U.S. employment situation report for March from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen coming in at up 238,000, compared to a rise of 311,000 in the February report. The U.S. markets will have to wait until Monday to react to the data, as they are closed on Friday for the Easter holiday.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up after hitting a two-month low Tuesday. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $80.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.292% and has fallen this week.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the global services PMI and monthly retail chain store sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,171.75 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,100.00 and then at 4,078.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,200.00 and then at this week’s high of 13,348.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,900.00 and then at 12,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a 2.5-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 134 8/32 and then at the contract high of 134 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at Wednesday’s low of 132 24/32 and then at 132 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the contract high of 117.01.5 and then at 117.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 116.11.0 and then at 116.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at this week’s high of 1.1019. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at this week’s low of 1.0835. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $81.81 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $79.00 and then at $78.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Keener risk aversion in the general marketplace at mid-week is hurting the grain market bulls. Soybean and corn market bulls still have the chart advantage. Meantime, SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the chart edge amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, April 5–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite has been dented at mid-week after some downbeat U.S. economic data released Tuesday, namely a JOLTS report that showed a decline in job openings and a weak factory orders report.

In overnight news, New Zealand’s central bank surprised the marketplace by raising its main interest rate by 0.5%.

A feature in the marketplace this week is gold prices pushing above $2,000 an ounce and hitting a more-than-one-year high. A weakening U.S. dollar index and a surge in crude oil prices this week have helped to rally the yellow metal. Gold bulls are now poised to challenge the record high of $2,078.80, scored in March of 2022.

The U.S. data point of the week is Friday’s U.S. employment situation report for March from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen coming in at up 238,000, compared to a rise of 311,000 in the February report. The U.S. markets will have to wait until Monday to react to the data, as they are closed on Friday for the Easter holiday.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up after hitting a two-month low Tuesday. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $80.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.365%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the U.S. international trade report, the U.S. services purchasing managers index (PMI), the ISM report on business services and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,171.75 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,100.00 and then at 4,078.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,348.75 and then at 13,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at 12,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 133 7/32 and then at the March high of 133 29/32. Shorter-term support lies at 132 even and then at Tuesday’s low of 131 5/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 116.09.0 and then at 116.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 115.20.0 and then at 115.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1019 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 1.0929 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $81.81 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $79.00 and then at $78.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. Keener risk aversion in the general marketplace at mid-week is hurting the grain market bulls. Soybean and corn market bulls still have the chart advantage. Meantime, SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the chart edge amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, April 4–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. U.S. stock index bulls are enjoying near-term price uptrends on the daily bar charts.

In overnight news, Australia’s central bank kept its monetary policy steady after its regular meeting. The bank said the pause from tightening gives it time to assess the outlook amid uncertainty, but added further tightening of monetary policy may be needed.

Meantime, the Eurozone February producer price index was reported up 13.6%, year-on-year, which was slightly below market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $81.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.449%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,200.00 and then at the February high of 4,244.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,122.75 and then at last Friday’s low of 4,078.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer and hit an eight-month high in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,500.00 and then at 13,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,154.00 and then at last Friday’s low of 13,057.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 132 14/32 and then at 133 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 130 12/32 and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 115.21.5 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 115.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 114.18.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are up and hit a two-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at 1.1050. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0929 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting hit a two-month high Monday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $81.69 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at this week’s low of $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. This week’s jump in crude oil prices is bullish for grains. Better risk appetite in the general marketplace recently is also bullish. Soybean and corn market bulls have the chart advantage. Meantime, SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the chart edge amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff