Daily Morning Report

Friday, January 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Trading activity was subdued overnight ahead of what is arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month: this morning’s employment situation report for December from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up 200,000, following a rise of 263,000 in the November report. On Thursday, the U.S. ADP national employment report came in at up 235,000 jobs in December, compared to the consensus forecast of up 153,000. The stronger ADP report has some market watchers suspecting today’s non-farm jobs number may be stronger, too.

Analyst Craig Erlam of OANDA said today in an email dispatch: “The November (U.S. jobs) report contained everything the Federal Reserve did not want to see: strong jobs growth, with upward revisions to prior releases, much higher wages than anticipated and weaker participation. If that’s a blip in the trend, it’s no big deal. But a second consecutive month would deliver a sledgehammer to hopes of a lower terminal rate. The Fed has remained extremely hawkish throughout all of this, through fear of feeding investors’ craving for a dovish pivot and unintentionally easing financial conditions. But another strong jobs report today would further justify such a hawkish approach and perhaps send risk assets into a bit of a tailspin as the prospect of a higher terminal rate increases alongside recession risks.”

In overnight news, the Euro zone December consumer price index rose 9.2%, year-on-year, compared to a rise of 10.1% in November, and was a bit lower than the consensus forecast of up 9.7%. The core CPI (minus food and energy) came in up 5.2% in December.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are near steady and trading around $73.75 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.727%. 

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the ISM report on business services, and manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,906.75 and then at 3,919.75. Support for active traders is seen at the December low of 3,788.50 and then at 3,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,000.00 and then at this week’s high of 11,182.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the December low of 10,758.75 and then at the October low of 10,595.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 128 4/32 and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at Thursday’s low of 126 15/32 and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 113.15.5 and then at 113.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 112.12.5 and then at the December low of 111.28.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower and hit a four-month low in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0600 and then at Thursday’s high of 1.0679. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0500 and then at 1.0450. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $72.46 and then at $72.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Prices were firmer overnight on upside corrections after strong losses posted this week. Bulls have faded this week to begin to suggest near-term market tops are in place in the grains. Risk aversion in the marketplace at present has the grain market bulls still timid. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.    

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, January 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is not keen this week due to worries about a global economic slowdown in 2023. In the coming weeks, keep a closer eye on the crude oil market, as its price trajectory will give the marketplace a very good reading on the global economic growth prospects in 2023. Nymex crude oil prices are higher early today and trading around $74.50 a barrel. However, oil’s price drop the first two trading days of the new year was the steepest, percentage-wise, in over 30 years–suggesting dour prospects for any robust world economic growth this year.

In overnight news, the Euro zone producer price index for November came in at up 27.1%, year-on-year, mostly due to rising energy costs. However, excluding energy, the PPI was still up 13.1% on the year.

The other key outside market today sees the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.699%. 

Traders and investors are starting to focus on Friday’s U.S. December employment situation report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up 200,000, following a rise of 263,000 in the November report.

It’s a busy day for U.S. economic data releases Thursday, including the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the ADP national employment report, the U.S. services purchasing managers index (PMI), the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, the global services PMI and the monthly retail chain store sales index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,906.75 and then at 3,919.75. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,814.50 and then at the December low of 3,788.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 11,182.00 and then at 11,411.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 10,844.75 and then at the December low of 10,758.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 128 4/32 and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at Wednesday’s low of 126 17/32 and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 113.15.5 and then at 113.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Wednesday’s low of 112.26.5 and then at 112.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a three-month-old uptrend on the daily chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0736 and then at last week’s high of 1.0767. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0570 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher on a corrective bounce from this week’s strong losses. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $72.73 and then at $72.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were mixed to firmer overnight on upside corrections after strong losses posted Wednesday. Bulls have faded this week to begin to suggest near-term market tops are in place in the grains. Risk aversion in the marketplace at present has the grain market bulls still timid.    

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, January 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins. There is some heightened trepidation in the marketplace this first week of the new year. Potentially slowing economic growth in the major industrialized countries along with problematic price inflation in 2023 are keeping traders pensive.

One gauge of anxiety in the marketplace was seen Tuesday, when gold prices posted solid gains despite a strong rally in the U.S. dollar index. In past months the USDX and gold prices have traded in a strong inverse relationship on a daily basis. The rally in the gold market Tuesday was due to safe-haven demand amid wobbly global stocks markets and worries about rising Covid infections in China continuing to crimp the world’s second-largest economy.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower and trading around $75.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.681%. 

Traders and investors are starting to focus on Friday’s U.S. December employment situation report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up 200,000, following a rise of 263,000 in the November report.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the MBA mortgage applications survey, the Johnson Redbook weekly retail sales report, the ISM report on business manufacturing, domestic auto industry sales and the minutes from the last FOMC meeting.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,906.75 and then at 3,919.75. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,839.25 and then at 3,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 11,182.00 and then at 11,411.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 10,920.25 and then at last week’s low of 10,758.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 128 even and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 126 17/32 and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 113.20.0 and then at 113.28.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 112.26.5 and then at 112.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a three-month-old uptrend on the daily chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0736 and then at last week’s high of 1.0767. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0600 and then at this week’s low of 1.0570. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. A fledgling price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $77.42 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $74.00 and then at $73.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

GRAINS

Prices were mixed to weaker overnight. Risk aversion in the marketplace at present has the grain market bulls very timid. Corn bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading this week. Wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Soybeans bulls still have the chart edge as prices are in an uptrend.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, January 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The stock indexes begin the new year with some optimism after the S&P 500 stock index in 2022 suffered its worst year since 2008. 

Inflation worries, central bank monetary policies and the Russia-Ukraine war are likely to remain near the front burner of the marketplace in 2023.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index sharply higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $79.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.761%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is light and includes construction spending.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,906.75 and then at 3,919.75. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,842.75 and then at 3,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,171.00 and then at 11,411.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 10,952.00 and then at last week’s low of 10,758.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 127 even and then at 128 even. Shorter-term support lies at 126 even and then at the overnight low of 125 3/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 113.02.0 and then at 113.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 112.12.5 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are sharply and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a three-month-old uptrend on the daily chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0650 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0570 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. A fledgling price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at the overnight high of $81.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $76.79 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Corn bulls start 2023 with the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending higher. Wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage, but bulls are working on fledgling price uptrends that suggest near-term market bottoms are in place. Soybeans bulls still have the chart edge as prices are in an uptrend. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. 

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff