Daily Morning Report

Thursday, January 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls were derailed Wednesday when U.S. retail sales data came in weaker than expected, which revived notions the U.S. economy could slip into recession in 2023. 

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are a bit lower and trading around $78.75 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.388%. U.S. Treasury yields have dropped in the wake of a tamer U.S. producer price index report on Wednesday and the weaker U.S. retail sales report. 

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, new residential construction, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,948.75 and then at 4,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,900.00 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,500.00 and then at 11,650.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,200.00 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a four-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 132 31/32 and then at 134 even. Shorter-term support lies at 131 even and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a four-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 116.08.0 and then at 116.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 115.16.0 and then at 115.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices hit an eight-month high Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0927 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0800 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.50 Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $78.13 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Prices were mostly weaker overnight. Risk aversion in the general marketplace late this week is a bearish element for the grain markets. Corn and soybean market bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the advantage.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, January 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward steady to slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Corporate earnings reports are in focus this week.

In overnight news, the Japanese yen tumbled against the U.S. dollar as the Bank of Japan made a surprise move to keep its cap in the 10-year government bond yield at 0.5%. Many thought the BOJ would be hawkish and raise the cap. The BOJ move is an attempt to keep Japanese interest rates low, while global interest rates have been rising.

The Euro zone consumer price index for December came in at up 9.2%, year-on-year, which was in line with market expectations.

The International Energy Agency said today that world oil demand will hit a record high this year as China’s economy is expected to see a jump in oil usage.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $81.75 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.476%. 

It’s a very busy day for U.S. economic data released Wednesday, including the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, retail sales, the producer price index, the Johnson Redbook and chain store sales indexes, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing market index, manufacturing and trade inventories and Treasury international capital data.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,035.25 and then at 4,075.00. Support for active traders is seen at last Friday’s low of 3,961.75 and then at 3,925.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a four-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,800.00 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,510.25 and then at 11,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the January high of 131 10/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at the overnight low of 129 14/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the January high of 115.15.5 and then at 115.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 114.16.0 and then at this week’s low of 114.09.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices hit an eight-month high Tuesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0916 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0800 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $83.00 and then at $84.00 Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $80.55 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were firmer overnight. Corn and soybean market bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the advantage. The grain market bulls have gained some fresh momentum this week, possibly as the big funds are looking to get long on ideas of better global economic growth this year fueling better demand for the grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, January 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Corporate earnings reports are in focus this week.

In overnight/weekend news, China got more downbeat economic data, as Covid continues to punish the world’s second-largest economy. China’s economic growth slowed to 3% in 2022 from 8.1% in 2021, official data said Tuesday. Except for the pandemic year of 2020, that’s the worst annual economic growth rate for China since 1976. The dour China news has traders and investors more risk averse to start this holiday-shortened U.S. trading week.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly higher and trading around $80.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching around 3.549%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is light and includes the Empire State manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading but did hit a four-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,028.25 and then at 4,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at last Friday’s low of 3,961.75 and then at 3,925.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading but hit a four-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,638.75 and then at 11,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last Friday’s low of 11,389.00 and then at 11,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a three-week high Friday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130 4/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at 129 even and then at 128 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower on a corrective pullback after hitting a four-month high last Friday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 114.29.5 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 114.10.0 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading but hit an eight-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0916 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0758 and then at last week’s low of 1.0689. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the January high of $81.50 and then at $83.00 Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $78.53 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were lower overnight. Corn and soybean market bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the advantage. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, January 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly weaker openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls have had a good week as the S&P and Nasdaq hit four-week highs on Thursday. Trader and investor attitudes are more positive, following a U.S. consumer price index report Thursday that showed inflation continuing to recede.

In overnight news, the Euro zone got some upbeat economic news when the bloc’s November industrial output was reported up 2.0%, year-on-year, which is well above market expectations.

China got some downbeat economic data Friday, as its December exports fell 9.9% and imports were down 7.5%, year-on-year. However, those numbers were a bit better than market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $79.25 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.47%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes import and export prices and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are having a good week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,021.50 and then at 4,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 3,954.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,891.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 11,579.75 and then at 11,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 11,291.00 and then at this week’s low of 11,094.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a three-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131 2/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker on a corrective pullback after hitting a four-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 115.15.5 and then at 115.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 115.00.0 and then at 114.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback from recent good gains. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0911 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 1.0758 and then at this week’s low of 1.0689. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have had a good week. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at the January high of $81.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $77.00 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were higher overnight. Corn and soybean bulls got a boost from bullish USDA data on Thursday. Corn and wheat market bulls have the near-term technical advantage and both have momentum now. Wheat futures bears still have the advantage, but if corn and beans continue to rally then wheat will likely be pulled higher, too.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff