Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, January 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Corporate earnings reports are in focus this week.

In overnight/weekend news, China got more downbeat economic data, as Covid continues to punish the world’s second-largest economy. China’s economic growth slowed to 3% in 2022 from 8.1% in 2021, official data said Tuesday. Except for the pandemic year of 2020, that’s the worst annual economic growth rate for China since 1976. The dour China news has traders and investors more risk averse to start this holiday-shortened U.S. trading week.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly higher and trading around $80.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching around 3.549%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is light and includes the Empire State manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading but did hit a four-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,028.25 and then at 4,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at last Friday’s low of 3,961.75 and then at 3,925.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading but hit a four-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,638.75 and then at 11,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last Friday’s low of 11,389.00 and then at 11,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a three-week high Friday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130 4/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at 129 even and then at 128 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower on a corrective pullback after hitting a four-month high last Friday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 114.29.5 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 114.10.0 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading but hit an eight-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0916 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0758 and then at last week’s low of 1.0689. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the January high of $81.50 and then at $83.00 Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $78.53 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were lower overnight. Corn and soybean market bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the advantage. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, January 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly weaker openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls have had a good week as the S&P and Nasdaq hit four-week highs on Thursday. Trader and investor attitudes are more positive, following a U.S. consumer price index report Thursday that showed inflation continuing to recede.

In overnight news, the Euro zone got some upbeat economic news when the bloc’s November industrial output was reported up 2.0%, year-on-year, which is well above market expectations.

China got some downbeat economic data Friday, as its December exports fell 9.9% and imports were down 7.5%, year-on-year. However, those numbers were a bit better than market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $79.25 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.47%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes import and export prices and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are having a good week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,021.50 and then at 4,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 3,954.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,891.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 11,579.75 and then at 11,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 11,291.00 and then at this week’s low of 11,094.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a three-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131 2/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker on a corrective pullback after hitting a four-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 115.15.5 and then at 115.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 115.00.0 and then at 114.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback from recent good gains. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0911 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 1.0758 and then at this week’s low of 1.0689. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have had a good week. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at the January high of $81.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $77.00 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were higher overnight. Corn and soybean bulls got a boost from bullish USDA data on Thursday. Corn and wheat market bulls have the near-term technical advantage and both have momentum now. Wheat futures bears still have the advantage, but if corn and beans continue to rally then wheat will likely be pulled higher, too.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, January 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward near steady openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace was more subdued overnight as traders are awaiting a major U.S. inflation data point: Thursday morning’s consumer price index report for December. The CPI headline number is expected to come in at up 6.5%, year-on-year, which compares to the 7.1% rise reported in the November report. Said analyst Craig Erlam of OANDA: “This inflation print has been the main topic of conversation all week. The U.S. jobs report last Friday changed the dynamic in the markets and ensured that not only was this CPI report going to be important but in all likelihood pivotal ahead of next month’s Fed meeting.” If the CPI headline number is a big miss from the consensus forecast, look for very active trading in many markets in the immediate aftermath of the 8:30 a.m. EST release of the report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $78.50 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.535%. 

Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, real earnings and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls are having a good week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,000.00 and then at 4,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at Wednesday’s low of 3,934.50 and then at this week’s low of 3,891.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and hit a three-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,500.00 and then at 11,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 11,239.75 and then at this week’s low of 11,094.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 130 1/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at 129 even and then at this week’s low of 127 30/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 114.23.5 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 113.26.5 and then at 113.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0822 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0750 and then at this week’s low of 1.0689. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $79.00 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $77.00 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were higher overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report and the monthly USDA supply and demand report. The monthly USDA report is likely to prompt significant moves in the grain markets after its 12 noon EST release. Corn and wheat market bulls have faded recently to begin to suggest near-term market tops are in place. Soybean bulls remain more resilient, led by the surge in meal futures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, January 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite is not robust early in the new year, amid most major central banks that are still-hawkish on their monetary policies. However, risk aversion is not keen, either, due to hopes China’s economy, the second-largest in the world, will see improved growth after the Chinese government relaxed Covid restrictions.

In overnight news, it appears most of the U.S. airline industry has seen its flights suspended due to a computer malfunction of unknown nature. The first thing that comes to many market watchers’ minds is a major cyber attack from a foreign country that could prompt a retaliation from the U.S.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher on a corrective bounce prices Monday hit a 6.5-month low. Nymex crude oil futures prices are modestly up and trading around $75.50 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.574%. 

Traders are awaiting the next major U.S. inflation data point: Thursday’s consumer price index report for December. The CPI headline number is expected to come in at up 6.5%, year-on-year, which compares to the 7.1% rise reported in the November report.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday is light and includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,973.25 and then at 4,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,891.50 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 11,385.50 and then at 11,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,094.00 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 130 1/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 127 30/32 and then at 127 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 114.23.5 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 113.26.5 and then at 113.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0812 and then at 1.0850. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0750 and then at this week’s low of 1.0689. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $76.74 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $73.47 and then at the January low of $72.46. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were mostly firmer overnight. Corn and wheat market bulls have faded recently to begin to suggest near-term market tops are in place. Soybean bulls remain more resilient, led by the surge in meal futures. Grain traders will continue to gauge general marketplace sentiment in their daily trading decisions. Risk-on trading days in the general marketplace would favor the grain market bulls, while keener risk aversion days would favor the grain market bears.     

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff