Daily Morning Report

Friday, November 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly firmer and Asian shares mostly weaker. U.S. stock indexes are headed for mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Many U.S. markets close early Friday, the day after the Thanksgiving holiday in which U.S. markets were closed. Today is typically one of the slowest U.S. trading days of the year.

Today is “Black Friday” in the U.S., where holiday shoppers go wild. Early results on U.S. consumer spending will be closely examined by market watchers, including the Federal Reserve.

The marketplace remains subdued late this week as Covid-19 cases in China are rising at a record pace as China’s government tries to deal with its slumping economy amid Covid-related lockdowns. China’s central bank lowered its reserve requirement ratio by 25 basis points Friday in a bid to support the world’s second-largest economy. “Combined with other measures to boost the property market and ease Covid curbs, the cut could be supportive over the medium term when growth remains highly uncertain,” said one analyst.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $79.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.722%.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and near the recent for-the-move high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the November high of 4,050.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,937.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show more power soon to keep it. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,000.00 and then at the November high of 12,118.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 11,720.00 and then at this week’s low of 11,526.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a seven-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 128 13/32 and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at 127 even and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a seven-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 113.24.5 and then at 114.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 112.20.0 and then at this week’s low of 112.11.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0531 and then at the November high of 1.0568. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0400 and then at this week’s low of 1.0316. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as a price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $81.00 and then at this week’s high of $82.36. Look for sell stops just below technical support $78.00 and then at the overnight low of $76.89. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Grain markets close early today. Grain bulls are squelched due to ongoing demand worries amid the China Covid lockdowns. Corn and soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Wheat bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Grain traders will continue to closely monitor the key outside markets: the U.S. dollar index and crude oil prices.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, November 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Most global stock markets were slightly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace remains tentative at mid-week as Covid-19 cases in China continue to rise and are crimping the world’s second-largest economy. Newswire reports this morning quoted Chinese officials as saying they will further ease China’s monetary policies in an effort to produce more economic growth.

Meantime, the Euro zone reported its November manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) at 47.3, which was slightly above market expectations and compares to the October reading of 46.4. Still, a reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector. It was the fifth month in a row of manufacturing sector contraction for the Euro zone.

Today is the busiest day for U.S. economic data this holiday-shortened trading week, including the minutes from the last FOMC monetary policy meeting, to be released in the early afternoon. The minutes may contain a few new clues on the future path and timing of Fed monetary policy. U.S. markets are closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $79.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.756%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, durable goods orders, the U.S. flash services and manufacturing purchasing managers indexes (PMI), new residential sales, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the November high of 4,050.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,937.50 and then at last week’s low of 3,912.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show more power soon to keep it. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,000.00 and then at the November high of 12,118.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,526.50 and then at 11,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a six-week high on Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 127 even and then at 128 even. Shorter-term support lies at 126 even and then at this week’s low of 125 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 113.00.0 and then at 113.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 112.11.5 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0436 and then at 1.0500. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0316 and then at 1.0250. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage as a price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $78.38 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed in overnight trading. Not much new this week, in quiet trading. Bulls are being squelched due to ongoing demand worries amid the China Covid lockdowns. Corn and soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Wheat bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Grain traders will continue to closely monitor the key outside markets: the U.S. dollar index and crude oil prices.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, November 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite remains muted early this week as Covid cases surge in China. News reports are calling China’s largest city, Beijing, a “ghost town.” Some analysts are saying 20% of China’s economy is being negatively impacted by the Covid lockdowns.

Wednesday will be the busiest day for U.S. economic data, including the minutes from the last FOMC monetary policy meeting, to be released in the early afternoon. A Barron’s headline today reads: “Don’t tune out for the holidays; the Fed minutes will be a must watch.” The minutes may contain fresh clues on the future path and timing of Fed monetary policy.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $80.50 a barrel. The crude oil market was roiled Monday by reports Saudi Arabia is contemplating raising its crude oil production—only to have Saudi officials deny the report. Oil prices fell to an 11-month low shortly after the news reports hit the wires. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.793%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes and the Richmond Fed business survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,000.00 and then at the November high of 4,050.75. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 3,912.50 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show fresh power soon to keep it. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 11,756.00 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,500.00 and then at 11,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the Monday’s high of 126 7/32 and then at the November high of 126 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at 125 even and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 113.00.0 and then at 113.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 112.11.5 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.0417 and then at 1.0500. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.0316 and then at 1.0250. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage as a fledgling price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $82.00 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed in overnight trading. Bulls are being squelched due to demand worries amid the China Covid lockdowns. Corn and soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Wheat bears have the near-term technical advantage. Grain traders will continue to closely monitor the key outside markets: the U.S. dollar index and crude oil prices.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, November 21–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for lower openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion is keener to start a U.S. holiday-shortened trading week. U.S. markets are closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday. China has recorded its first Covid deaths in six months as the world’s second-largest economy continues to struggle with rising Covid cases and lockdowns. Reports said infections in Beijing have more than doubled the past few days. This news has stock and commodity markets under pressure due to global demand worries.

Wednesday will be the busiest day for U.S. economic data, including the minutes from the last FOMC monetary policy meeting, to be released in the early afternoon.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index sharply higher. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $79.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.833%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Chicago Fed national activity index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,000.00 and then at the November high of 4,050.75. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 3,912.50 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,756.00 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 11,528.25 and then at 11,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the November high of 126 27/32 and then at 128 even. Shorter-term support lies at 125 even and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.17.5 and then at Friday’s high of 112.25.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 111.27.0 and then at 111.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are sharply lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0354 and then at 1.0400. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0246 and then at 1.0200. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $81.00 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $79.00 and then at $78.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower in overnight trading, on demand worries amid China Covid lockdowns. Corn and soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Wheat bears have the near-term technical advantage. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and weekly USDA crop progress reports.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff