Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, April 3–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, there was a major 7.4 magnitude earthquake in Taiwan that killed at least seven and injured dozens. The temblor was the strongest in a quarter century and may have impacted the region’s semiconductor industry.

Eurozone inflation cooled a bit in March, as its consumer price index was reported up 2.4%, compared to up 2.8% in February, year-on-year. Reads a DowJones Newswires headline: “Eurozone inflation cools, setting the stage for June rate cut.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer, hit a five-month high, and are trading around $85.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.36%.

U.S. economic reports due for release Wednesday include the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the U.S. services PMI, the ISM report on business services, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report. Several Federal Reserve officials are also scheduled to speak today, including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,333.50 and then at 5,375.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5.235.00 and then at 5,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 18,345.00 and then at 18,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 18,201.50 and then at 18,100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 118 26/32 and then at 119 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 117 5/32 and then at 116 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 110.03.0 and then at 110.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 109.14.5 and then at 109.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0833 and then at last week’s high of 1.0901. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0758 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a five-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $86.00 and then at $87.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of $83.85 and then at this week’s low of $82.60. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. Not much new this week. Charts remain overall bearish for wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans, meal and bean oil, and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to suggest market bottoms are in place.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, April 2–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

Featured in the marketplace early this week is rising U.S. Treasury yields following recent strong U.S. economic data, including Monday’s stronger-than-expected ISM manufacturing report. That has given the U.S. monetary policy doves some pause on their notions of an interest rate cut coming as early as June.

In overnight news, an air strike on the consular part of Iran’s embassy in Damascus, Syria, killed three senior members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. Iran blamed Israel for the strike. This is another escalation in the already-turbulent Middle East. Gold rose to another record high overnight, partly due to safe-have demand amid heightened geopolitical tensions.

In other news, the Japanese yen sank to a 34-year low against the U.S. dollar today. Reads a DowJones Newswires headline today: “Yen intervention risk is rising, but effects could be short-lived.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are higher, hit a five-month high, and are trading around $85.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 4.34%–the highest this year.

U.S. economic reports due for release Tuesday include the Johnson Redbook weekly retail sales report, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, the JOLTS survey, the global manufacturing PMI, and domestic auto industry sales. Several Federal Reserve officials are also slated to speak today.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract and record high Monday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,333.50 and then at 5,375.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 5.271.25 and then at 5,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading and not far below the recent record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,500.00 and then at the contract high of 18,709.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 18,414.75 and then at 18,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 118 26/32 and then at 119 even. Shorter-term support lies at 118 even and then at the February low of 117 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 110.03.0 and then at 110.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the March low of 109.24.5 and then at 109.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a six-week low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.0833 and then at last week’s high of 1.0901. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0758 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hitting a five-high low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $85.46 and then at $87.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $83.85 and then at this week’s low of $82.60. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Charts remain overall bearish for wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans, meal and bean oil, and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to suggest market bottoms are in place.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, April 1–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to firmer overnight. Several European markets remained closed for the Easter holiday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings and at or near record highs when the New York day session begins and on this first day of April.

Stock and financial markets overnight are buoyed by last Friday’s report that the U.S. PCE price Index was up 0.3% in February compared to the previous month. The rise was slightly lower than the revised 0.4% increase in January and fell short of market forecasts for a 0.4% increase. The annual rate of PCE inflation rose marginally from 2.4% to 2.5%, aligning with forecasts. However, when considering the monthly core PCE inflation, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy and is a preferred measure of inflation by the Federal Reserve, there was a deceleration. The core PCE inflation rate slowed to a 0.3% rise from a revised 0.5% rise in January, matching the anticipated rate. This report favors the U.S. monetary policy doves, who want to see the Federal Reserve cut interest rates sooner rather than later.

Gold prices overnight surged to a record high of $2,264.20 an ounce, basis nearby Comex futures.

In overnight news, China’s manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for March came in at 50.8 from 49.1 in February and beat market expectations. A reading above 50.0 suggests expansion in the sector. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “China’s manufacturing data reflect upturn, but host of hurdles remain.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $83.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 4.20%.

U.S. economic reports due for release Monday include the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), the ISM report on business manufacturing and construction spending.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and hit a contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,350.00 and then at 5,375.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,300.00 and then at last week’s low of 5.271.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and not far the recent record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 18,709.00 and then at 18,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,500.00 and then at last week’s low of 18,414.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 120 20/32 and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 119 2/32 and then at the March low of 118 3/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 110.31.5 and then at 111.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 110.11.5 and then at 110.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.0862 and then at last week’s high of 1.0901. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0800 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a five-month low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $86.62 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $82.00 and then at $80.55. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. The planting intentions report and the quarterly grain stocks report, out last Thursday, was bullish for corn. Charts remain overall bearish for wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans, meal and bean oil, and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to suggest market bottoms are in place.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, March 28–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward near steady openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes continue on a slow and steady rise and are near their recent record highs.

It’s a very busy U.S. data release schedule Thursday, including U.S. Q4 GDP data and its inflation indexes, as well as a major USDA crop planting intentions report. U.S. markets are closed Friday for the Good Friday holiday but personal income and outlays, including PCE inflation data, will be released that day.

Today is the last U.S. trading day of the week, of the month and of the quarter, which makes it an important trading day from a technical chart perspective.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $82.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 4.25%.

U.S. economic reports due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the 4Q GDP report, the Chicago ISM business survey, pending home sales, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, the USDA planting intentions and quarterly grain stocks report and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,322.75 and then at 5,350.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5.271.25 and then at 5,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 18,619.00 and then at the contract high of 18,709.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 18,414.75 and then at 18,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 120 12/32 and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 119 2/32 and then at last week’s low of 118 3/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 110.31.5 and then at 111.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 110.11.5 and then at 110.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower and hit a six-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0862 and then at this week’s high of 1.0901. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0808 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $82.48 and then at last week’s high of $83.12. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $80.55 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Grain traders are awaiting one of the most important sets of USDA reports of the year due out Thursday: the planting intentions report and the quarterly grain stocks report. Bigger price moves could occur after these reports due out in late morning. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans, meal and bean oil, and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to begin to suggest market bottoms are in place.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff