Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, April 17–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in remarks on Tuesday afternoon cast a hawkish tone on U.S. monetary policy. He said U.S. inflation persists, calling into question whether the Fed can cut interest rates this year. He suggested interest rates may have to remain higher for longer, to get inflation back down to a level where the Fed feels more comfortable. U.S. Treasury yields rose to five-month highs after Powell’s comments.

In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index for March came in at up 2.4%, year-on-year, which was in line with market expectations.

Risk aversion remains elevated at mid-week, after the weekend air attack on Israel by Iran and its proxies. Israel has vowed to retaliate.

In other news, broker SP Angel reported overnight that metals analysts say central banks are buying around 25% of annual gold production–the highest level since the early 1970s when the Bretton Woods accord unraveled.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower on a corrective pullback after hitting a 5.5-month high on Tuesday. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $84.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.65%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the Federal Reserve’s beige book.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a seven-week low overnight. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,150.00 and then at 5,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 5,075.75 and then at 5,050.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading after hitting a seven-week low overnight. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,000.00 and then at 18,150.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 17,778.00 and then at 17,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 114 24/32 and then at this week’s high of 116 1/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 113 10/32 and then at 113 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 108.04.0 and then at this week’s high of 108.22.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 107.13.5 and then at 107.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly firmer on short covering after hitting a 5.5-month low Tuesday. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0700 and then at 1.0758. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0628 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $86.18 and then at last week’s high of $87.67. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $84.05 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Still not much new in the grains. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, wheat and corn markets look like they have put in market bottoms. And if they have done so, so likely have soybeans, meal and bean oil.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, April 16–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

Risk aversion is still elevated Tuesday, following the weekend Iranian air attacks on Israel. Israel’s military chief said Israel will retaliate, despite U.S. warnings to Israel that the U.S. won’t participate in any retaliation. NBC reports that an Israeli military response to Iran’s attack is imminent. At present, the general marketplace appears to be taking any Israeli retaliation lightly, as markets are not seeing keen risk aversion or stronger moves into safe-haven assets. This full-time 40-year markets watcher thinks the marketplace is presently dead wrong, regarding thinking the Israel-Iran conflict will not escalate significantly. It seems to me that Israel finally has its good excuse to take out or seriously degrade Iran’s military and its nuclear weapons capability. Iran has vowed in the past to destroy Israel.

In overnight news, China’s first-quarter GDP beat market expectations by rising 5.3%, year-on-year versus 5.2% in the fourth quarter of 20/22 and 4.8% expected by forecasters. On the downside, China’s industrial production in March was up 6.1% versus up 7.0% February and 6.6% forecast. March retail Sales were up 4.7%, year-on-year versus up 5.5% in February and 5.4% expected. And the bad news: China’s property Investment was down 9.5% in March compared to down 9.0% in February and down 9.2% expected by the marketplace. Residential property Sales were down 30.7% in March versus down 32.7% in February, year-on-year.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $85.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.63%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, new residential construction, and industrial production and capacity utilization. Several Federal Reserve officials are also slated to speak today.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,150.00 and then at 5,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 5,081.25 and then at 5,050.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,000.00 and then at 18,150.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 17,792.00 and then at 17,650.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a five-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 114 24/32 and then at this week’s high of 116 1/32. Shorter-term support lies at 113 even and then at 112 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 108.04.0 and then at this week’s high of 108.22.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 107.18.5 and then at 107.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly firmer on short covering after hitting a 5.5-month low Monday. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0700 and then at 1.0758. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0629 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $87.67 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $84.05 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Still not much new in the grains. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, wheat and corn markets look like they have put in market bottoms. And if they have done so, so likely have soybeans, meal and bean oil.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, April 15–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. It was a tense weekend after Iran and its allies coordinated a massive air strike on Israel. However, judging by what the markets are doing Monday morning, the marketplace reckons the outcome could have been much worse and that the Iran-Israel confrontation may de-escalate now.

Still, Israel has vowed to retaliate for the more-than 300 missiles and drones fired into Israel by Iran and its proxies. The attack included 185 explosive drones, 36 cruise missiles and 110 ballistic missiles, “in a salvo that could have killed thousands and destroyed most of Israel’s infrastructure,” said broker SP Angel in a morning email dispatch. “Iran has been threatening to annihilate Israel for many years and it is only a matter of time before Iran develops its nuclear arsenal. The hard-line Netanyahu government will, almost inevitably, hit back at Iran in an attempt to slow its nuclear program, change its regime and reduce the capacity of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Members of the Israel cabinet are reported to be pushing for a powerful retaliatory strike as a deterrence, though the U.S. has stated it will not help Israel retaliate against Iran. We suspect the retaliatory attack will come sooner rather than later,” said the broker.

The Associated Press said in a morning email: “Iran may have managed to strike a balance between retaliating publicly and avoiding provoking further Israeli military action and setting off a much wider conflict. Mona Yacoubian, vice president of the Middle East and North Africa center at the U.S. Institute of Peace said of the situation: ‘Both (Iran and Israel) are able at this point to claim victory and step down off the precipice, particularly since there were no Israeli civilians killed.’ ” The marketplace will remain extra nervous in the coming days.

In other news, China kept its monetary policy unchanged at its PBOC central bank meeting.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $85.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.573%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Empire State manufacturing survey, retail sales, the NAHB housing market index, and manufacturing and trade inventories.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Friday’s high of 5,248.75 and then at last week’s high of 5,285.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 5,150.00 and then at 5,125.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 18,518.75 and then at the contract high of 18,709.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,150.00 and then at last week’s low of 18,053.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 116 1/32 and then at 117 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 114 29/32 and then at 114 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 108.22.0 and then at 109.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 107.27.5 and then at 107.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer on short covering after hitting a 5.5-month low Friday. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.0758 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0667 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $87.67 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $84.33 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the weekly USDA crop progress reports. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, wheat and corn markets look like they have put in market bottoms. And if they have done so, so likely have soybeans, meal and bean oil.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, April 12–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes have turned wobbly this week after a hotter U.S. consumer price index report on Wednesday. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “Fed rate cuts are now a matter of if, not when.”

Geopolitical tensions are heightened to end the trading week. The Wall Street Journal reported Israel is set for another assault against Iran following an air strike on an Iranian compound last week. Meantime, Iran has threatened retaliation, and said it may block the important Strait of Hormuz, a vital global shipping route.

Gold hit another record high overnight on the keener risk aversion. Precious metals bulls have been impressed with gold and silver rallying despite higher bond yields. Broker SP Angel said in a morning email dispatch that Bloomberg reported Chinese gold ETFs have seen huge inflows, with some up 40% since the end of March. “Chinese investors are rushing to safe haven assets as their property sector continues to slump and their equity market fares little better. China’s Yuan remains under pressure, with the PBoC continuing to fix the currency onshore at 7.1 per dollar,” said the broker. Central banks are also reported to be snapping up gold.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index solidly higher and at a 5.5-month high. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $86.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.53%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes import and export price indexes and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but are fading a bit. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,250.00 and then at this week’s high of 5,285.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,173.50 and then at 5,150.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 18,518.75 and then at the contract high of 18,709.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,200.00 and then at this week’s low of 18,053.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a four-month low Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 116 even and then at 117 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 114 29/32 and then at 114 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a five-month low Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 108.24.0 and then at 109.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 108.00.5 and then at this week’s low of 107.27.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are sharply lower and hit a 5.5-month low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0758 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0650 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $87.63 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $84.55 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were a bit higher overnight. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, wheat and corn markets look like they have put in market bottoms. And if they have done so, so likely have soybeans, meal and bean oil.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, April 11–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward lower openings when the New York day session begins, on follow-through selling from Wednesday’s solid losses following a hotter U.S. consumer price index report Wednesday morning that threw into further question whether the Federal Reserve will be able to cut interest rates this year. On tap today is the producer price index report for March, seen coming in at up 0.3% from February and compares to a 0.6% rise in the February report.

The European central bank is meeting on its monetary policy and will soon announce its results.

China got some inflation data Thursday that highlighted its deflationary price pressures. Its CPI in March was up 0.1% versus up 0.7% in February and a 0.4% rise that was expected. China’s PPI was reported down 2.8% in March versus down 2.7% February and a 2.8 decline that was forecast. All of those figures were year-on-year. These figures are likely to see Chinese monetary and fiscal authorities step up their economic stimulus measures.

In other news, Bloomberg reported its sources are saying Iran or its proxies could launch a retaliatory military strike against Israel in the coming days, after an Israeli air strike killed some top Iranian military officials in Syria a couple weeks ago.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit higher after its strong rally to a 4.5-month high Wednesday rallying after the hotter U.S. CPI report. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $85.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.57%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the PPI report, and monthly U.S. chain store sales.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a three-week low Wednesday. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but are fading a bit. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,225.00 and then at 5,250.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,176.50 and then at 5,150.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,300.00 and then at this week’s high of 18,474.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 18,053.50 and then at 17,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading, on tepid short covering after hitting a four-month low Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 116 16/32 and then at 117 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 115 9/32 and then at 115 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hit a five-month low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 108.16.0 and then at 109.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 108.04.5 and then at 108.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading and hit a nearly two-month low. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0800 and then at 1.0850. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0750 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $87.63 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $84.55 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Traders are also awaiting Thursday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil.    

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, April 10–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward steady to mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

Traders and investors are awaiting the Wednesday releases of the morning March consumer price index and the afternoon minutes of the last FOMC meeting. The March CPI is seen coming in at up 3.4%, year-on-year. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, is seen at up 3.7% annually. Thursday comes the U.S. March producer price index and the European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

Reads a Dow Jones Newswires headline today: “Commodities rally reflects a better economy, but also poses inflation risks.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $85.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.36%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the MBA mortgage applications survey, real earnings, monthly wholesale trade, the monthly Treasury budget statement and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,300.00 and then at the contract high of 5,333.50. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 5,191.50 and then at 5,150.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,500.00 and then at the April high of 18,612.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 18,160.75 and then at last week’s low of 18,051.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 118 17/32 and then at 119 even. Shorter-term support lies at Tuesday’s low of 117 even and then at this week’s low of 116 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 110.00.0 and then at 110.06.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 109.06.5 and then at this week’s low of 109.02.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0916 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0842 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $87.63 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $85.00 and then at $83.85. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mostly firmer overnight. Still not much new. Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil.    

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff