Daily Morning Report

Friday, April 12–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes have turned wobbly this week after a hotter U.S. consumer price index report on Wednesday. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “Fed rate cuts are now a matter of if, not when.”

Geopolitical tensions are heightened to end the trading week. The Wall Street Journal reported Israel is set for another assault against Iran following an air strike on an Iranian compound last week. Meantime, Iran has threatened retaliation, and said it may block the important Strait of Hormuz, a vital global shipping route.

Gold hit another record high overnight on the keener risk aversion. Precious metals bulls have been impressed with gold and silver rallying despite higher bond yields. Broker SP Angel said in a morning email dispatch that Bloomberg reported Chinese gold ETFs have seen huge inflows, with some up 40% since the end of March. “Chinese investors are rushing to safe haven assets as their property sector continues to slump and their equity market fares little better. China’s Yuan remains under pressure, with the PBoC continuing to fix the currency onshore at 7.1 per dollar,” said the broker. Central banks are also reported to be snapping up gold.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index solidly higher and at a 5.5-month high. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $86.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.53%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes import and export price indexes and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but are fading a bit. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,250.00 and then at this week’s high of 5,285.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,173.50 and then at 5,150.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 18,518.75 and then at the contract high of 18,709.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,200.00 and then at this week’s low of 18,053.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a four-month low Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 116 even and then at 117 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 114 29/32 and then at 114 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a five-month low Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 108.24.0 and then at 109.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 108.00.5 and then at this week’s low of 107.27.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are sharply lower and hit a 5.5-month low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0758 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0650 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $87.63 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $84.55 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were a bit higher overnight. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, wheat and corn markets look like they have put in market bottoms. And if they have done so, so likely have soybeans, meal and bean oil.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, April 11–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward lower openings when the New York day session begins, on follow-through selling from Wednesday’s solid losses following a hotter U.S. consumer price index report Wednesday morning that threw into further question whether the Federal Reserve will be able to cut interest rates this year. On tap today is the producer price index report for March, seen coming in at up 0.3% from February and compares to a 0.6% rise in the February report.

The European central bank is meeting on its monetary policy and will soon announce its results.

China got some inflation data Thursday that highlighted its deflationary price pressures. Its CPI in March was up 0.1% versus up 0.7% in February and a 0.4% rise that was expected. China’s PPI was reported down 2.8% in March versus down 2.7% February and a 2.8 decline that was forecast. All of those figures were year-on-year. These figures are likely to see Chinese monetary and fiscal authorities step up their economic stimulus measures.

In other news, Bloomberg reported its sources are saying Iran or its proxies could launch a retaliatory military strike against Israel in the coming days, after an Israeli air strike killed some top Iranian military officials in Syria a couple weeks ago.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit higher after its strong rally to a 4.5-month high Wednesday rallying after the hotter U.S. CPI report. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $85.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.57%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the PPI report, and monthly U.S. chain store sales.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a three-week low Wednesday. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but are fading a bit. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,225.00 and then at 5,250.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,176.50 and then at 5,150.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,300.00 and then at this week’s high of 18,474.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 18,053.50 and then at 17,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading, on tepid short covering after hitting a four-month low Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 116 16/32 and then at 117 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 115 9/32 and then at 115 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hit a five-month low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 108.16.0 and then at 109.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 108.04.5 and then at 108.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading and hit a nearly two-month low. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0800 and then at 1.0850. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0750 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $87.63 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $84.55 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Traders are also awaiting Thursday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil.    

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, April 10–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward steady to mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

Traders and investors are awaiting the Wednesday releases of the morning March consumer price index and the afternoon minutes of the last FOMC meeting. The March CPI is seen coming in at up 3.4%, year-on-year. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, is seen at up 3.7% annually. Thursday comes the U.S. March producer price index and the European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

Reads a Dow Jones Newswires headline today: “Commodities rally reflects a better economy, but also poses inflation risks.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $85.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.36%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the MBA mortgage applications survey, real earnings, monthly wholesale trade, the monthly Treasury budget statement and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,300.00 and then at the contract high of 5,333.50. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 5,191.50 and then at 5,150.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,500.00 and then at the April high of 18,612.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 18,160.75 and then at last week’s low of 18,051.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 118 17/32 and then at 119 even. Shorter-term support lies at Tuesday’s low of 117 even and then at this week’s low of 116 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 110.00.0 and then at 110.06.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 109.06.5 and then at this week’s low of 109.02.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0916 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0842 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $87.63 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $85.00 and then at $83.85. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mostly firmer overnight. Still not much new. Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil.    

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, April 9–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward steady to firmer openings when the New York day session begins. It’s a quieter U.S. data day again Tuesday but the pace picks up Wednesday. The releases of the March consumer price index and the minutes of the last FOMC meeting will come at mid-week. The March CPI is seen coming in at up 3.4%, year-on-year. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, is seen at up 3.7% annually. Thursday comes the U.S. March producer price index and the European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

Gold prices hit another record high of $2,384.50, basis June Comex futures overnight. Silver hit a two-year high of $28.29, basis May Comex futures. Gold is presently outperforming the S&P 500 so far this year.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $86.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.4%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the NFIB small business index, and the RCM/TIPP economic optimism index.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,300.00 and then at the contract high of 5,333.50. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 5,191.50 and then at 5,150.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,400.00 and then at 18,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 18,051.50 and then at 18,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 118 even and then at 118 17/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 117 even and then at this week’s low of 116 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 109.24.0 and then at 110.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 109.06.5 and then at this week’s low of 109.02.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0908 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0842 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $87.63 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $85.00 and then at $83.85. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. Still not much new. Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil.    

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, April 8–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Last Friday’s strong U.S. jobs report has the marketplace now reckoning the Federal Reserve will raise U.S. interest rates only twice this year. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “Economic data stir doubts about Fed rate cuts.”

The economic highlights this week will be Wednesday, with the releases of the March consumer price index and the minutes of the last FOMC meeting. Thursday comes the U.S. March producer price index and the European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

In weekend/overnight news, Israel said it is withdrawing some of its troops from Gaza but said the ground offensive will continue. Ceasefire talks are said to be ongoing.

Gold prices hit another record high overnight, with June Comex gold futures climbing to $2,372.50. Broker SP Angel today in an email dispatch said the rally has “dumfounded” most analysts, given the break from its correlation with U.S. Treasuries, which have sold off over the past month. Also, the U.S. dollar has been stronger and that’s usually bearish for gold and silver. “Central bank buying has been a sustained source of support for gold, with Bloomberg reporting China’s PBOC has added gold for the 17th month in a row,” said the broker, adding this has fueled speculation over a potential devaluation of the Chinese yuan, as well as geopolitical concerns over heightened aggression against Taiwan.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $86.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.45%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the employment trends index.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,308.50 and then at the contract high of 5,333.50. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 5,191.50 and then at 5,150.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,500.00 and then at 18,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 18,051.50 and then at 18,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a four-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 117 4/32 and then at 118 even. Shorter-term support lies at 116 even and then at 115 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a four-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 109.13.5 and then at 109.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 109.00.0 and then at 108.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are just a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0908 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0800 and then at last week’s low of 1.0758. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a five-month high last Friday. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $87.63 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $85.00 and then at $83.85. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and weekly USDA crop progress reports. Charts remain overall bearish for wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans, meal and bean oil, and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to suggest market bottoms are in place.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff