Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, March 27–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. It was a quieter trading affair overnight and U.S. data releases at mid-week are light. However, it’s a very busy U.S. data release schedule Thursday, including U.S. Q4 GDP data as well as a major USDA crop planting intentions report. U.S. markets are closed Friday for the Good Friday holiday but personal income and outlays, including PCE inflation data, will be released that day.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker and trading around $81.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.23%.

U.S. economic reports due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,322.75 and then at 5,350.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5.271.25 and then at 5,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 18,709.00 and then at 18,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 18,414.75 and then at 18,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 120 6/32 and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 119 2/32 and then at last week’s low of 118 3/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 110.30.0 and then at 111.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 110.11.5 and then at 110.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0901 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0839 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $82.48 and then at last week’s high of $83.12. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $80.55 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. Grain traders are tentative ahead of one of the most important sets of USDA reports of the year due out Thursday: the planting intentions report and the quarterly grain stocks report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans, meal and bean oil, and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to begin to suggest market bottoms are in place.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, March 22–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings and at or near this week’s record highs when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are set to end their best week of gains this year.

The marketplace is paying little attention as the U.S. Congress today is working to avert another federal government shutdown.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. The USDX has seen solid gains since Wednesday’s FOMC meeting conclusion and was helped by some stronger U.S. economic data released Thursday. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $81.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 4.24%.

There are no major U.S. economic reports due out Friday.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and near Thursday’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 4.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,322.75 and then at 5,350.00. Support for active traders is seen at Wednesday’s low of 5.233.00 and then at 5,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher and near the contract and record high set Thursday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 18,709.00 and then at 18,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,500.00 and then at 18,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 120 even and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 118 3/32 and then at the February low of 117 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 110.26.5 and then at 111.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Thursday’s low of 110.08.5 and then at 110.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0905 and then at this week’s high of 1.0981. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0845 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Thursday’s high of $81.92 and then at this week’s high of $83.12. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. The late-week surge in the U.S. dollar index is bearish for the grains. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans, meal and bean oil, and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to begin to suggest market bottoms are in place.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, March 21–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings and at or near record highs when the New York day session begins.

The marketplace is still buzzing about the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting that ended Wednesday afternoon and saw the Federal Reserve keep its monetary policy unchanged, as expected. The FOMC and Fed Chairman Powell leaned a bit dovish. The FOMC statement said the U.S. economy is growing and inflation has eased but is still elevated. The statement said no rate cuts will occur until the Fed has more confidence inflation has been tamed. Still, the statement said the Fed sees three interest rate cuts this year, which is what the marketplace focused more on. The Fed appears willing to tolerate slightly higher inflation for longer and still cut rates.

The U.S. dollar index weakened on the FOMC/Powell statements. U.S. Treasury yields dipped a bit. However, gold prices soared to record highs, with April Comex gold hitting a record high of $2,225.30 an ounce. The much stronger move in gold is puzzling to many long-time gold watchers, given the more modest price moves in the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasuries. It makes one wonder if a big player, like a bank, put on a huge long-side trade in gold futures in the afternoon after-hours market, when volume may have been thinner.

The Bank of England holds its regular monetary policy meeting Thursday.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. The USDX has seen a solid rebound from the March low and the bulls still have the slight technical advantage. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker and trading around $81.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 4.2%.

U.S. economic reports due out Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, the U.S. flash services and manufacturing purchasing managers indexes, existing home sales and leading economic indicators. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen also testifies to a Senate finance committee today.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit another contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 4.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight contract high of 5,315.75 and then at 5,350.00. Support for active traders is seen at Wednesday’s low of 5.233.00 and then at 5,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and near the contract and record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 18,691.25 and then at 18,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,500.00 and then at 18,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 120 even and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 118 3/32 and then at the February low of 117 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 111.00.0 and then at 111.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 110.12.5 and then at 110.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0981 and then at the March high of 1.1026. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at this week’s low of 1.0874. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $81.92 and then at this week’s high of $83.12. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans, meal and bean oil, and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to begin to suggest market bottoms are in place.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, March 19–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open narrowly mixed when the New York day session begins.

The marketplace has been subdued so far this week, ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting conclusion Wednesday afternoon that sees a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. No change in Fed policy is expected, but as always the marketplace will parse the statement and Powell’s presser for clues on the future path and timing of monetary policy. The Bank of England holds its regular monetary policy meeting Thursday.

In overnight news, European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde said if the ECB’s projections remain in line by June, the central bank can start “dialing back” interest rates.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. The USDX has seen a solid rebound from the March low and the bulls have the technical advantage. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $82.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.27%.

Other U.S. economic reports due out Wednesday include the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and near the recent contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 4.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,257.25 and then at 5,275.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,181.75 and then at 5,125.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 18,381.00 and then at 18,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 18,006.25 and then at 17,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 120 even and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 118 3/32 and then at the February low of 117 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 110.16.0 and then at 110.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 109.24.5 and then at 109.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0946 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0874 and then at 1.0844. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Tuesday hit a 4.5-month high. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $83.85 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $81.00 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans, meal and bean oil, and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to begin to suggest market bottoms are in place.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff