Gold Tuesday scored another record high of $2,384.50 an ounce, basis June Comex futures. Safe-haven demand for gold has increased recently. The Israel-Hamas war continues hot. Israel was also apparently responsible for an air strike recently that killed a few top-brass Iranian military officials. The charts are firmly bullish for gold, which continues to invite the technical speculators to the long side. Also helping the precious metal appreciate is raw commodity sector leader crude oil seeing a price surge, with Nymex futures last week climbing above $85.00. Especially impressive to gold bulls is that gold continues to trek north despite a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and concurrent strength in the U.S. dollar. Typically, rising bond yields and an appreciating greenback are bearish for gold. Stay tuned!—Jim Wyckoff
Daily Morning Report
Traders await U.S. inflation data Wed.
Tuesday, April 9–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Gold prices hit another record high of $2,384.50, basis June Comex futures overnight. Silver hit a two-year high of $28.29, basis May Comex futures. Gold is presently outperforming the S&P 500 so far this year.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $86.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.4%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the NFIB small business index, and the RCM/TIPP economic optimism index.
STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,300.00 and then at the contract high of 5,333.50. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 5,191.50 and then at 5,150.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,400.00 and then at 18,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 18,051.50 and then at 18,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 118 even and then at 118 17/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 117 even and then at this week’s low of 116 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 109.24.0 and then at 110.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 109.06.5 and then at this week’s low of 109.02.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0908 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0842 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $87.63 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $85.00 and then at $83.85. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. Still not much new. Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
U.S. inflation data, ECB in focus this week
Monday, April 8–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
The economic highlights this week will be Wednesday, with the releases of the March consumer price index and the minutes of the last FOMC meeting. Thursday comes the U.S. March producer price index and the European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.
In weekend/overnight news, Israel said it is withdrawing some of its troops from Gaza but said the ground offensive will continue. Ceasefire talks are said to be ongoing.
Gold prices hit another record high overnight, with June Comex gold futures climbing to $2,372.50. Broker SP Angel today in an email dispatch said the rally has “dumfounded” most analysts, given the break from its correlation with U.S. Treasuries, which have sold off over the past month. Also, the U.S. dollar has been stronger and that’s usually bearish for gold and silver. “Central bank buying has been a sustained source of support for gold, with Bloomberg reporting China’s PBOC has added gold for the 17th month in a row,” said the broker, adding this has fueled speculation over a potential devaluation of the Chinese yuan, as well as geopolitical concerns over heightened aggression against Taiwan.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $86.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.45%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the employment trends index.
STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,308.50 and then at the contract high of 5,333.50. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 5,191.50 and then at 5,150.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,500.00 and then at 18,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 18,051.50 and then at 18,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a four-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 117 4/32 and then at 118 even. Shorter-term support lies at 116 even and then at 115 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a four-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 109.13.5 and then at 109.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 109.00.0 and then at 108.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are just a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0908 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0800 and then at last week’s low of 1.0758. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a five-month high last Friday. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $87.63 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $85.00 and then at $83.85. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and weekly USDA crop progress reports. Charts remain overall bearish for wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans, meal and bean oil, and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to suggest market bottoms are in place.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Crude oil rally bullish for commodity sector
Nymex crude oil futures this week hit a five-month high above $87.00 a barrel. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and the next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above stiff chart resistance at $90.00. The rallying crude oil market is bullish for the raw commodity sector, as crude is the sector leader. Stay tuned!—Jim Wyckoff
U.S. jobs report on deck Friday a.m.
Friday, April 5–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European stock indexes were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. China markets were closed Friday for a holiday.
The marketplace is awaiting the U.S. data point of the week, if not the month, on Friday morning. The March employment situation report from the Labor Department is due out. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen coming in at up 200,000, which compares to a rise of 275,000 in the February report. Look for some higher markets volatility after the jobs report, especially if it’s a big miss from market expectations.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $86.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.32%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the consumer credit report.
STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,250.00 and then at 5,300.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 5,191.50 and then at 5,150.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,300.00 and then at 18,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,000.00 and then at 17,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 118 26/32 and then at 119 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 116 24/32 and then at 116 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 110.06.0 and then at 110.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Thursday’s low of 109.20.0 and then at this week’s low of 109.09.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0908 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0800 and then at this week’s low of 1.0758. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are just a bit firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a five-month high Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $87.22 and then at $88.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $85.00 and then at $83.85. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. Charts remain overall bearish for wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans, meal and bean oil, and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to suggest market bottoms are in place.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Fed’s Powell leans just a bit dovish
Thursday, April 4–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.
The stock and bond markets were somewhat assuaged by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments on the U.S. economy in a speech at Stanford University Wednesday afternoon. He said U.S. interest rate cuts are likely this year. The marketplace at present has priced in two interest rate cuts this year.
In overnight news, the Eurozone February producer price index was reported down 8.3%, year-on-year. The decline was mostly due to a drop in energy prices.
The marketplace is awaiting the U.S. data point of the week, if not the month, on Friday morning. The March employment situation report from the Labor Department is due out. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen coming in at up 200,000, which compares to a rise of 275,000 in the February report.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady after hitting a five-month high Wednesday and are trading around $85.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.36%.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the Challenger job-cuts report, the international trade report, the weekly jobless claims report, the global services PMI. A few Federal Reserve officials are also scheduled to speak today.
STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,333.50 and then at 5,375.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5.235.00 and then at 5,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,500.00 and then at this week’s high of 18,612.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,300.00 and then at this week’s low of 18,201.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 118 26/32 and then at 119 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 116 24/32 and then at 116 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 110.03.0 and then at 110.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 109.09.5 and then at 109.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0901 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0850 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a five-month high Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $86.20 and then at $87.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of $83.85 and then at this week’s low of $82.60. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were steady to slightly up overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Charts remain overall bearish for wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans, meal and bean oil, and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to suggest market bottoms are in place.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff