Daily Morning Report

Friday, August 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were flat to slightly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session beings. Markets were quieter overnight as they await Friday morning’s U.S. jobs report for July, which is expected to show non-farm payrolls job growth of around 260,000, compared to a rise of 372,000 in the June report. A significant miss on the jobs number would likely prompt some higher markets volatility, at least briefly.

The marketplace is still a little uneasy amid the escalation in tensions between the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest economies, after U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan this week. China is conducting aggressive military exercises around Taiwan and also announced sanctions against Nancy Pelosi and her family. U.S. Secretary of State Blinken said China’s military exercises near Taiwan are a worrisome escalation.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $88.00 a barrel. Crude oil on Thursday hit a 4.5-month low. The U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.7%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the consumer credit report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading but near this week’s nearly two-month high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,173.25 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,100.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,080.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and hit a three-month high overnight. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,500.00 and then at 13,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 13,184.75 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a six-week-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 144 8/32 and then at 145 even. Shorter-term support lies at 142 even and then at this week’s low of 141 5/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a six-week-old uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 120.29.0 and then at 121.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Thursday’s low of 120.03.0 and then at 119.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, trading has been sideways and choppy for three weeks. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0327 and then at 1.0400. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0154 and then at 1.0100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and hit a 4.5-month low Thursday. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $90.00 and then at $92.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $87.55 and then at $86.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower overnight. Market fundamentals have become much less bullish this week. Weather forecasts have better rain chances and less high heat for the U.S. Corn Belt over the next 10 days. The window is rapidly closing for another weather market scare to play out this summer.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, August 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly slightly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mildly higher openings when the New York day session beings. The marketplace is a bit more nervous today after China fired several ballistic missiles around Taiwan, in apparent retaliation for U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan on Tuesday.

Traders in Europe are awaiting the Bank of England’s monetary policy meeting conclusion Thursday. The BOE is expected to raise its key interest rate by 0.5%.

The marketplace is looking ahead to Friday morning’s U.S. jobs report for July, which is expected to show non-farm payrolls job growth of around 260,000, compared to a rise of 372,000 in the June report.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $91.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.727%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the international trade report, and monthly retail chain store sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading and near this week’s nearly two-month high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,200.00 and then at 4,250.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,120.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,080.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are modestly up in early U.S. trading and hit a three-month high. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,500.00 and then at 13,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,227.25 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a six-week-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 143 20/32 and then at 144 even. Shorter-term support lies at 142 even and then at this week’s low of 141 5/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a six-week-old uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.14.0 and then at 120.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 120.00.0 and then at 119.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, trading has been sideways and choppy for three weeks. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0327 and then at 1.0400. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0134 and then at 1.0100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a three-week low overnight. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $93.00 and then at $95.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $90.00 and then at the July low of $88.23. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were narrowly mixed overnight. Market fundamentals have become much less bullish this week. Weather forecasts have better rain chances and less high heat for the U.S. Corn Belt over the next 10 days. Corn and soybean bears have gained the overall near-term technical advantage amid recent choppy trading, while wheat bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, August 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were steady to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session beings. Trader and investor anxiety has somewhat receded at mid-week. U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan Tuesday evening without incident…yet. China has vowed retaliation over her visit and plans on conducting a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan.

In overnight news, the Euro zone producer price index for June was up 35.8%, year-on-year, due to soaring energy costs in Europe.

U.S. Treasury yields have up-ticked this week as U.S. Federal Reserve officials this week reiterated they plan to keep raising U.S. interest rates to choke off problematic price inflation. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.75%.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $93.75 a barrel. Traders are awaiting an OPEC meeting Wednesday. The U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early U.S. trading.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the U.S. services PMI, the global services PMI, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, the ISM report on business services, and manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,147.25 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,050.00 and then at 4,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,108.75 and then at 13,300.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,814.75 and then at 12,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a six-week-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart but bulls are fading at mid-week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 143 10/32 and then at 144 even. Shorter-term support lies at 141 16/32 and then at 141 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a six-week-old uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. However, the bulls have faded at mid-week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.16.0 and then at 120.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 119.20.0 and then at 119.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, trading has been sideways and choppy for three weeks. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0327 and then at 1.0400. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0134 and then at 1.0100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of $96.47 and then at this week’s high of $98.65. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $92.42 and then at $91.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were firmer overnight on corrective rebounds from selling pressure seen earlier this week. The first Ukrainian grain shipments out of the Black Sea region are occurring this week. Also, weather forecasters this week have added better rain chances for the U.S. Corn Belt over the next week. Most U.S. soybeans see the critical growing period during August. Corn and soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading, while wheat bears have the firm near-term technical advantage.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, August 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session beings. It’s a risk-off trading day in the marketplace Tuesday, amid U.S.-China tensions on the rise as U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is reportedly set to visit Taiwan Tuesday evening. China has vowed retaliation.

Overnight news that the U.S. military killed the leader of Al Qaida in a drone strike in Kabul had little impact on markets.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $94.50 a barrel. Traders are awaiting an OPEC meeting Wednesday. The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.56%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is light and includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store sales retail reports. A couple of Federal Reserve officials also speak today.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after prices hit a seven-week high last Friday. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,147.25 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,050.00 and then at 4,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a downside correction after prices hit a nearly three-month high last Friday. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,975.75 and then at this week’s high of 13,108.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last Friday’s low of 12,744.25 and then at 12,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a nearly four-month high in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a six-week-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 145 31/32 and then at 147 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 144 27/32 and then at 144 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a nearly four-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a six-week-old uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 122.02.0 and then at 122.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 120.27.0 and then at 120.17.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, trading has been sideways and choppy for over two weeks. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0327 and then at 1.0400. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0134 and then at 1.0100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $98.65 and then at $100.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $92.42 and then at $91.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower again overnight. The first Ukrainian grain shipment out of the Black Sea region has occurred. Also, weather forecasters have added some better rain chances for the U.S. Corn Belt over the next several days. Most U.S. soybeans see the critical growing period during August. Corn and soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading, while wheat bears have the firm near-term technical advantage.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, August 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight, on this first trading day of August. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session beings, on corrective pullbacks and pauses after posting a very good month of July. The U.S. stock indexes are in near-term price uptrends on the daily bar charts amid better trader and investor risk appetite in the marketplace.

In overnight news, China’s official purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 49.0 in July from 50.2 in June. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector. Meantime, the Euro zone July manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.8 versus 52.1 in June.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices down and trading around $96.75 a barrel. Traders are awaiting an OPEC meeting Wednesday. The U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.681%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield is trading at 2.921%, to keep the yield curve inverted.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business manufacturing, the global manufacturing PMI, and construction spending.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after prices hit a seven-week high on Friday and closed at a bullish weekly high close. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,144.00 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 4,081.00 and then at 4,050.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a downside correction after prices hit a nearly three-month high on Friday and closed at a bullish weekly high close. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 13,012.00 and then at 13,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last Friday’s low of 12,744.25 and then at 12,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are keeping alive a six-week-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the July high of 144 12/32 and then at 145 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 143 even and then at last Friday’s low of 142 10/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a six-week-old uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the July high of 121.12.5 and then at 121.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at last Friday’s low of 120.17.0 and then at 120.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0320 and then at 1.0400. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0134 and then at 1.0100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $98.65 and then at $100.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $96.13 and then at $95.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower overnight. The first Ukrainian grain shipment out of the Black Sea region has occurred. Also, weather forecasters have added some better rain chances for the U.S. Corn Belt over the next several days. Most U.S. soybeans see the critical growing period during August. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff