Daily Morning Report

Thursday, June 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly lower openings when the New York day session begins, on this last trading day of the month and of the first half of 2022. Reports said the S&P 500 is set to close out its worst half-year since the 1970s. Trader and investor risk appetite has receded late this week, following downbeat consumer confidence and GDP readings out of the U.S. this week. Fed Chairman Powell and ECB President Lagarde on Wednesday repeated warnings that their central banks will keep raising interest rates even if their economies slowed down. Recently, much of the marketplace has deemed economic recessions potential as superseding inflation worries, when placing their trades.

In overnight news, Sweden’s central bank raised its key interest rate by 0.5%, to 0.75%.

The U.S. data point of the day is the personal income and outlays report for May. The personal consumption expenditures price index component of the report is said to be the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge. In the April report, the PCE price index was reported up 6.3%, year-on-year.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices slightly lower and trading around $109.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.057%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, personal income and outlays, and the ISM Chicago business survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have regained power this week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,825.00 and then at 3,850.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,750.00 and then at 3,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading as bears have regained power. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,696.75 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,250.00 and then at the June low of 11,068.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 137 14/32 and then at 137 29/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 136 18/32 and then at 136 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 118.00.0 and then at 118.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117.14.0 and then at 117.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are not far above the recent lows. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0525 and then at 1.0600. Shorter-term support is seen at May low of 1.0425 and then at 1.0400. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $111.00 and then at $112.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $108.64 and then at $107.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean bulls have regained some momentum this week. Wheat bears are still in control. Traders are awaiting Thursday’s USDA quarterly grain stocks and acreage reports—one of the most important report days of the year for the grains. Look for the potential for active price action after the 12 noon EDT USDA report’s release.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, June 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite has pulled back at mid-week, following downbeat consumer confidence readings out of the U.S. on Tuesday and out of the Euro zone today.

The marketplace will be closely watching a central bankers’ forum in Portugal that begins today at 9:00 a.m. EDT. Speakers include Fed Chairman Powell, ECB President Lagarde and Bank of England governor Bailey.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices slightly higher and trading around $112.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is near steady in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.134%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, revised corporate profits, U.S. final GDP figures for the first quarter, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have regained power at mid-week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,850.00 and then at 3,900.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,800.00 and then at 3,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and bears have regained power. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,000.00 and then at this week’ high of 12,262.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,500.00 and then at 11,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears are in firm overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 136 11/32 and then at 137 even. Shorter-term support lies at 135 even and then at this week’s low of 134 8/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears are in firm overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 117.13.0 and then at 117.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 116.20.0 and then at this week’s low of 116.11.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0678 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0544 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $114.00 and then at $115.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $110.78 and then at $110.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were higher in early U.S. pre-market trading, on more short covering and perceived bargain hunting after last week’s solid losses. Bulls are regaining some momentum this week. Traders are awaiting Thursday’s USDA quarterly grain stocks and acreage reports—one of the most important report days of the year for the grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, June 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite is more upbeat on news China is loosening its Covid restrictions. Also, there are also notions in the marketplace the Federal Reserve may not be so aggressive on tightening its monetary policy, after recent downbeat U.S. economic data hints of impending recession.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $111.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is near steady in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.222%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store sales indexes, the monthly house price index, the S&P/Core-Logic house price indexes, the Richmond Fed business survey and the consumer confidence index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have some momentum. More gains this week would suggest a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,948.00 and then at 4,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,885.75 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. More price gains this week would suggest a market bottom is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral to bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’ high of 12,262.00 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,971.00 and then at 11,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in firm overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 135 18/32 and then at this week’s high of 136 6/32. Shorter-term support lies at 134 even and then at 133 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in firm overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 117.01.0 and then at this week’s high of 117.13.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 116.08.9 and then at 116.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0678 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0600 and then at last week’s low of 1.0534. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $113.00 and then at $115.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $109.79 and then at $108.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were higher in early U.S. pre-market trading, on short covering and perceived bargain hunting. The recent general commodity market sell off and benign weather in the U.S. Corn Belt are likely to cap gains. Traders are awaiting Thursday’s USDA quarterly grain stocks and acreage reports—one of the most important report days of the year for the grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, June 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes closed at technically bullish weekly high closes last Friday. Trader and investor risk appetite is a bit more upbeat on ideas the Federal Reserve may not be so aggressive on tightening its monetary policy, for fear of setting off a recession in the U.S. economy. The recent declines in many raw commodity prices, including crude oil, are also hinting that inflationary pressures may have cooled off.

In other news, the Group of Seven industrialized nations is set to impose more economic sanctions on Russia, including banning imports of Russian gold.

Reports say Russia has defaulted on its foreign currency sovereign debt. Bloomberg reports the situation is unusual for many reasons, as Russia has the cash to pay and there is no formal declaration of default by ratings agencies as sanctions led them to withdraw their Russia ratings.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices slightly higher and trading around $107.75 a barrel. Looking into next year, January crude oil futures are presently trading around $95.00 a barrel—further. The U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.162%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes durable goods orders, pending home sales and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a two-week high overnight. Bulls are gaining some momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,948.00 and then at 4,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,895.50 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,262.00 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,000.00 and then at 11,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in firm overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 136 6/32 and then at 137 even. Shorter-term support lies at 135 even and then at 134 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in firm overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 117.13.0 and then at last Friday’s high of 118.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 116.25.5 and then at 116.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0673 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0534 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $109.00 and then at $110.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $105.60 and then at last Friday’s low of $103.64. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed but mostly firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain market bulls got hammered last week. Corn, wheat and soybeans have suffered serious chart damage and prices are trending lower. A general commodity market sell off and benign weather in the U.S. Corn Belt are keeping grain futures buyers timid. Look for more subdued trading this week, ahead of Thursday’s USDA quarterly grain stocks and acreage reports.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff