The U.S. dollar index is a basket of six major world currencies weighted against the greenback. This week the USDX has hit a two-year high amid safe-haven demand and a crumbling Euro currency. It’s important to note that trends in the currency markets tend to be stronger and longer-lasting than price trends in other markets, which suggests the price trends in place in the particular currencies could remain in place for some time to come. As for the USDX, there are indeed no early chart clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. Stay tuned! —Jim Wyckoff
Daily Morning Report
U.S. GDP on deck Thursday A.M.
Thursday, April 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls are working to shore up their markets after getting shellacked on Tuesday. The major indexes remain in near-term downtrends on the daily charts, suggesting the path of least resistance for prices remains sideways to lower.
This week is the busiest U.S. corporate earnings week of the quarter. So far most of the earnings reports have been upbeat.
In overnight news, the Japanese yen hit a 20-year low against the U.S. dollar as the Bank of Japan has reinforced its commitment to low interest rates despite rising inflation. Japan is bucking the trend of other major countries who have or are considering tightening their monetary policies. Meantime, the Euro currency fell to a five-year low against the dollar as soaring energy prices crimp the Euro zone economy. The U.S. dollar index is solidly up again today and hit another two-year high.
The other key outside markets today sees Nymex crude oil futures prices slightly up and trading around $102.50 a barrel. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 2.804%.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the advance first-quarter GDP estimate and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,258.75 and then at this week’s high of 4,303.50. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,200.50 and then at this week’s low of 4,136.75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending down on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,347.25 and then at this week’s high of 13,583.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,801.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 143 9/32 and then at 144 even. Shorter-term support lies at 141 even and then at this week’s low of 139 28/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in solid near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 120.18.5 and then at 120.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 119.07.5 and then at 119.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are lower and hit another contract and five-year low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0600 and then at 1.0676. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight contract low of 1.0500 and then at 1.0450. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $103.05 and then at $104.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $100.00 and then at $98.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures prices were mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls have the slight near-term chart advantage. Planting delays in the U.S. Corn Belt are in focus as much of that region remains cool and wet. Rising raw commodity price inflation continues to be a major underlying bullish element for the grains. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
U.S. stock indexes recover Wed., but bulls in trouble
Wednesday, April 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins, on corrective bounces after big losses Tuesday. This week is the busiest U.S. corporate earnings week of the quarter, which will help drive stock prices. So far most of the earnings reports have been upbeat. However, at present geopolitics is trumping corporate earnings as risk aversion remains elevated amid the Russia-Ukraine war that is the biggest battlefield in Europe since World War Two. Inflation worries are also near the front burner of the marketplace.
A feature in the marketplace this week is the soaring value of the U.S. dollar, which today hit another two-year high. Meantime, the Euro currency today hit a five-year low. The greenback is seeing safe-haven demand amid the geopolitical crisis. The Euro zone is getting hammered by soaring energy costs, as much of Europe gets its energy from Russia. Russia on Tuesday cut off natural gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria.
The other key outside market sees Nymex crude oil futures prices slightly up and trading around $102.00 a barrel. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 2.778%.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the advance economic indicators report, pending home sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on a corrective bounce from solid losses Tuesday. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,303.50 and then at 4,350.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,136.75.00 and then at the February low of 4,094.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on a corrective bounce after hitting a 12-month low on Tuesday. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,183.50 and then at this week’s high of 13,583.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,801.50 and then at 12,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 143 9/32 and then at 144 even. Shorter-term support lies at Tuesday’s low of 141 even and then at this week’s low of 139 28/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in solid near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.18.5 and then at 120.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Tuesday’s low of 119.07.5 and then at 119.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are lower and hit another contract and five-year low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0700 and then at 1.0759. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight contract low of 1.0606 and then at 1.0550. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $103.00 and then at $104.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $100.00 and then at $98.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures prices were mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls have the slight near-term chart advantage. Planting delays in the U.S. Corn Belt are in focus as much of that region remains cool and wet. Rising raw commodity price inflation continues to be a major underlying bullish element for the grains.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Grain markets reveal an important clue Monday
Keener risk aversion amid rising Covid cases in China
Tuesday, April 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are uneasy early this week as China continues to lock down its major cities to prevent the spread of Covid. That’s leading many to think China’s economy, the second largest in the world, will suffer significantly this year, including more supply chain disruptions in Asia and around the globe.
Following are some headlines coming out of Asia Tuesday morning:
Covid Lockdowns Send China’s Economy Reeling as Outbreaks Spread
Xi Puts Ideology Before Economy With Market-Busting Lockdowns
Global Supply Chain Crisis Flares Up Again Where It All Began
Beijing to Covid Test Most of City as Lockdown Specter Looms
China Central Bank Seeks to Calm Markets with Support Pledge
The Russia-Ukraine war has also heightened risk aversion in the marketplace the past several weeks. A top Russian government official today said the U.S. and Russia risk nuclear war.
Inflation worries remain on the front burner of the global marketplace.
This week is the U.S. busiest corporate earnings week of the quarter, which will help drive stock prices.
The key outside markets see Nymex crude oil futures prices near steady today and trading around $98.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher and hit another two-year high early today. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 2.79%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes, durable goods orders, the Core Logic-Case Shiller home price indexes, the Richmond Fed business survey, the monthly house price index, the consumer confidence index, and new residential sales.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,303.50 and then at 4,350.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,250.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,195.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,583.75 and then at 13,781.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,184.00 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering. Bears are still in solid technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 142 12/32 and then at 143 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 141 even and then at this week’s low of 139 28/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bears are still in solid near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 120.06.0 and then at 120.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119.07.5 and then at 119.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are lower and hit another contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0800 and then at this week’s high of 1.0840. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight contract low of 1.0693 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $100.00 and then at this week’s high of $101.55. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $97.06 and then at this week’s low of $95.28. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures prices were firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls have faded. However, here’s an important observation from Monday’s price action. The grains, while not posting solid price gains, were able to hold stable to a bit weaker when most of the rest of the raw commodity futures markets were selling off sharply. This suggests significant underlying strength in the grain futures markets, which in turn provides a clue that the grains are likely to make another run to the upside in the coming weeks.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
China Covid lockdowns spook global stock markets
Monday, April 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight, led by the biggest drop in Chinese shares in two years. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. There are growing worries about the economic toll of China’s strict zero Covid policy, as lockdowns spread to Beijing. The Chinese yuan dropped to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar since late 2020. The Covid flareup that shut down much of Shanghai appeared to worsen over the weekend. China ordered mandatory tests in a district of Beijing and shut down some areas of the capital of more than 20 million people. This situation is expected to further disrupt already strained global supply chains and likely drive already problematic inflation still higher.
The Russia-Ukraine war that shows no signs of de-escalating continues to sap trader and investor risk appetite.
The key outside markets see Nymex crude oil futures prices sharply lower today and trading around $97.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher and hit a two-year high early today. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 2.833%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower and hit a nearly six-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,267.25 and then at 4,300.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,200.00 and then at 4,150.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and hit a nearly six-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,360.00 and then at 13,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,200.00 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering. Bears are still in solid technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 142 even and then at 143 even. Shorter-term support lies at 140 16/32 and then at the overnight low of 139 28/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bears are still in solid near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 119.25.5 and then at 120.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 119.00.0 and then at the overnight contract low of 118.26.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0800 and then at the overnight high of 1.0840. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0728 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are sharply lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $100.00 and then at the overnight high of $101.55. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $96.85 and then at $95.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures prices were mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage but may be running out of gas. Wheat bulls have faded. If wheat futures continue to sag then the upside will also be limited in corn and soybeans. Wheat may be the most important grain market to watch in the coming sessions. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff