Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, April 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes have become wobbly and are in near-term price downtrends. Equities traders are presently focused on corporate earnings reports. Risk appetite is not robust in the marketplace amid the Russia-Ukraine war and the Covid outbreak in China.

Nymex crude oil futures prices are firmer today and trading around $103.25 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly lower early today after hitting a two-year high Tuesday. The closely watched yield on the 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 2.57%, which is well down from levels seen earlier this week.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, existing home sales, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the Federal Reserve’s beige book.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,500.00 and then at 4,550.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,400.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,355.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading and are also trending lower on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 14,350.00 and then at 14,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 13,729.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and did hit another contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears are in strong technical command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 141 3/32 and then at 142 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 138 14/32 and then at 138 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher after hitting a contract low overnight. Bears are in solid near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 120.00.5 and then at 120.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 118.19.5 and then at 118.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0900 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0807 and then at the contract low of 1.0781. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $104.00 and then at $105.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $101.00 and then at $100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls have the firm technical edge. The grain trade disruption from the Russia-Ukraine war and “inflation trade” have been supporting buying interest in the grain futures markets. However, the bulls appear tired now and in need of a pause.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, April 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed to weaker overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes have become wobbly and are now in near-term price downtrends. Risk aversion in the global marketplace remains extra elevated amid the Russia-Ukraine war that shows no signs of ending. Inflation concerns have also hurt stocks and bonds.

Flying under the radar screen of the marketplace has been the severe depreciation of the Japanese Yen on the foreign exchange market the past few months. Bloomberg reports the yen has extended its longest losing streak in at least 50 years. “The currency is plunging even after Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stepped up verbal defense of the currency, with traders looking for more concrete signs of intervention. Selling the yen has become a favorite trade as the dovish Bank of Japan keeps policy rates anchored to the floor while the Federal Reserve starts on a hiking cycle.”

Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower today and trading around $106.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early today and hit a two-year high overnight. The closely watched yield on the 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 2.898%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail reports, and new residential construction.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,411.00 and then at 4,450.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,355.50 and then at 4,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and are also trending lower on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 14,019.00 and then at 14,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,729.50 and then at 13,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit another contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears are in strong technical command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 141 3/32 and then at 142 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 139 13/32 and then at 139 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 120.00.5 and then at 120.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 119.09.0 and then at 119.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0850 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of 1.0781 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $109.20 and then at $110.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $105.00 and then at $104.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading, on some chart consolidation following recent solid gains. Corn and soybean bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls also have the firm technical edge. The grain trade disruption from the Russia-Ukraine war and “inflation trade” have been supporting buying interest in the grain futures markets.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, April 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were to firmer mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion is a bit keener heading into a long three-day holiday weekend for many countries. Russian President Putin has again threatened NATO with his nuclear arsenal, saying he will deploy those weapons in and around the Baltic Sea if Sweden and Switzerland join the NATO alliance. Corporate earnings reports will be closely scrutinized by stock traders.

Surging Covid cases in China remain a serious concern for the overall global economy. Bloomberg today reports Chinese President Xi Jinping “sees no alternative to a zero-tolerance approach to Covid-19 despite simmering anger in the locked-down financial hub of Shanghai and mounting costs, telling officials yesterday they must adhere to the principle of people first and life first. The outbreak has Xi, who’s likely to seek a third five-year term during a Communist Party congress later this year, facing one of the biggest tests of his tenure. For many of Shanghai’s 25 million residents, the restrictions have meant resorting to bartering with neighbors for basic necessities like ice cream for vegetables or wine for cake.”

Meantime, China’s central bank appears set to lower interest rates and reduce the reserve requirement ratio for its banks. The moves would be intended to free up more liquidity in the banking sector to help bolster the economy which has been hit by the particularly bad wave of covid.

The European Central Bank is meeting as of this writing and its conclusion will occur shortly. No changes in ECB monetary policy are expected but the ECB commentary coming out of the meeting will be important.

Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower today and trading around $103.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker early today after hitting a two-year high earlier this week. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 2.675%.

It’s a busy day for U.S. economic data released Thursday, including the weekly jobless claims report, retail sales, import and export prices, manufacturing and trade inventories, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of 4,466.75 and then at this week’s high of 4,491.25. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,375.50 and then at 4,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 14,382.00 and then at 14,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,881.25 and then at 13,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears are in strong technical command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 143 21/32 and then at 144 even. Shorter-term support lies at 142 even and then at the contract low of 141 6/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 121.07.0 and then at 121.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 120.19.5 and then at 120.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0959 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of 1.0833 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $104.47 and then at $105.59. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $101.50 and then at $100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls also have the technical edge. Focus is on U.S. weather patterns as corn and soybean planting season is not far off. A wetter early season for corn planting is bullish for corn and may become bearish for soybeans, due to farmers possibly switching intended corn acres to soybeans. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff