Daily Morning Report

Thursday, April 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were to firmer mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion is a bit keener heading into a long three-day holiday weekend for many countries. Russian President Putin has again threatened NATO with his nuclear arsenal, saying he will deploy those weapons in and around the Baltic Sea if Sweden and Switzerland join the NATO alliance. Corporate earnings reports will be closely scrutinized by stock traders.

Surging Covid cases in China remain a serious concern for the overall global economy. Bloomberg today reports Chinese President Xi Jinping “sees no alternative to a zero-tolerance approach to Covid-19 despite simmering anger in the locked-down financial hub of Shanghai and mounting costs, telling officials yesterday they must adhere to the principle of people first and life first. The outbreak has Xi, who’s likely to seek a third five-year term during a Communist Party congress later this year, facing one of the biggest tests of his tenure. For many of Shanghai’s 25 million residents, the restrictions have meant resorting to bartering with neighbors for basic necessities like ice cream for vegetables or wine for cake.”

Meantime, China’s central bank appears set to lower interest rates and reduce the reserve requirement ratio for its banks. The moves would be intended to free up more liquidity in the banking sector to help bolster the economy which has been hit by the particularly bad wave of covid.

The European Central Bank is meeting as of this writing and its conclusion will occur shortly. No changes in ECB monetary policy are expected but the ECB commentary coming out of the meeting will be important.

Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower today and trading around $103.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker early today after hitting a two-year high earlier this week. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 2.675%.

It’s a busy day for U.S. economic data released Thursday, including the weekly jobless claims report, retail sales, import and export prices, manufacturing and trade inventories, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of 4,466.75 and then at this week’s high of 4,491.25. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,375.50 and then at 4,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 14,382.00 and then at 14,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,881.25 and then at 13,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears are in strong technical command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 143 21/32 and then at 144 even. Shorter-term support lies at 142 even and then at the contract low of 141 6/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 121.07.0 and then at 121.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 120.19.5 and then at 120.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0959 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of 1.0833 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $104.47 and then at $105.59. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $101.50 and then at $100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls also have the technical edge. Focus is on U.S. weather patterns as corn and soybean planting season is not far off. A wetter early season for corn planting is bullish for corn and may become bearish for soybeans, due to farmers possibly switching intended corn acres to soybeans. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, April 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed to firmer overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Focus of equities traders is on corporate earnings reports.

On tap today in the U.S. is another inflation report, the producer price index for March. PPI is expected to come in hot, at up 1.1% from February.

In overnight news, the International Energy Agency cut global oil demand in 2022 by 260,000 barrels per day, to 99.4 million barrels per day, mostly due to raging Covid in China.

Meantime, China reported its March exports were up 14.7%, year-on-year, while its imports were down 0.1%. Exports were in line with market expectations but imports were forecast to rise 8.0%. The weakening import pace is also likely due to major Covid lockdowns in China’s cities.

Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher today and trading around $102.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is firmer early today and hit another two-year high overnight. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 2.76%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of 4,466.75 and then at this week’s high of 4,491.25. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,375.50 and then at 4,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 14,382.00 and then at 14,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,881.25 and then at 13,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and close to this week’s contract low. Bears are in strong technical command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 143 8/32 and then at 144 even. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 141 6/32 and then at 141 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears are in strong near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 120.26.0 and then at 121.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119.31.0 and then at 119.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 1.0930 and then at this week’s high of 1.0959. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0835 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $103.00 and then at $104.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $99.87 and then at $98.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mostly lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, on corrective pullbacks from recent good gains. Higher crude oil prices this week have boosted the grains. Corn and soybean bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls have also  gained the technical edge. Focus is on U.S. weather patterns as corn and soybean planting season is not far off. A wetter early season for corn planting is bullish for corn and may become bearish for soybeans, due to farmers possibly switching intended corn acres to soybeans.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, April 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. On the Russia invasion of Ukraine front, the U.S. has now warned the war will take a more protracted and bloodier turn. Reports said European countries are now focusing more on arming the Ukrainians and less on adding economic sanctions on Russia.

Inflation worries remain near the front burner of the marketplace. The U.S. data point of the week comes this morning with the consumer price index report for March, which is expected to come in hot at up 8.4%, year-on-year. And on Wednesday comes the U.S. producer price index report for March.

The Covid pandemic continues to surge in China, the world’s second-largest economy. Broker SP Angel said today in an email dispatch: “Strict Shanghai lockdown has put other Chinese cities on edge. All residents in Shanghai have been in a strict lockdown since last Tuesday as Covid cases surge and the government doubles down on its ‘zero covid’ strategy. Residents have been left without food or medicine, leading to protests and general unrest. Shanghai is the most populous city in China and thought to contribute 3.5% of the country’s total GDP. It is thought that now over 70 of China’s largest 100 cities are suffering some sort of lockdown. Panic buying is sweeping through cities, with officials in the southern port city of Guangzhou urging residents to stop excess purchasing as a local paper suggested shortages were imminent.”

Nymex crude oil futures prices are solidly higher today and trading around $98.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is firmer early today and hit another two-year high overnight. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 2.792% and at a more-than-three-year high.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the NFIB small business index, real earnings, the Johnson Redbook and chain store weekly reports, the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index, and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading after hitting a three-week low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 4,491.25 and then at 4,550.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,382.25 and then at 4,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up but hit a three-week low in overnight trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 14,382.00 and then at 14,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,902.75 and then at 13,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and hit another contract low. Bears are in strong technical command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 143 8/32 and then at 144 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 141 6/32 and then at 141 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and hit another contract low. Bears are in strong near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 120.03.0 and then at 120.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 119.10.5 and then at 119.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.0959 and then at 1.1017. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0863 and then at the March low of 1.0845. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $99.00 and then at $100.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $94.84 and then at last week’s low of $93.81. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were solidly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Sharply higher crude oil prices are helping to boost the grains. Corn and soybean bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls have also now gained the technical edge. Focus is shifting to U.S. weather patterns as corn and soybean planting season is not far off. It looks to be a wetter early season for corn planting and that’s bullish for corn.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff