Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, March 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mostly higher overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. The Russia-Ukraine war continues but from a markets perspective not much has changed recently. President Biden Thursday meets with NATO and EU leaders to discuss Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The two-day summit will be held at NATO headquarters in Brussels. Sanctions continue to bite Russia’s economy and its ability to make war. Bloomberg reports that “for decades, global finance firms eagerly catered to Russian companies, billionaires and the government. In perhaps the harshest and fastest exclusion in living memory of a major industrialized economy, the past few weeks have been a frantic dash to understand and implement sanctions on Russia that are being continually updated by the U.S., U.K. and the EU.”

The other element very near the front burner of the marketplace is inflation worries. Global bond market yields have been rising sharply, with U.S. Treasury yields nearing three-year highs. The U.S. 2-year and 10-year yield curve is very close to inverting, which would begin to suggest a U.S. economic recession is coming.

The key outside markets see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $111.50 a barrel. Oil prices are rising sharply again on ideas the European Union is moving closer to banning oil imports from Russia. The U.S. dollar index is firmer today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.375%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, new residential sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,514.00 and then at 4,550.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,415.00 and then at 4,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are down a bit in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 14,690.75 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,500.00 and then at this week’s low of 14,183.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady after hitting contract low overnight. Bears are in solid command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 149 even and then at 150 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 147 21/32 and then at 147 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer and did hit a contract low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 123.11.5 and then at 123.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 122.12.0 and then at 122.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1104 and then at last week’s high of 1.1172. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0994 and then at last week’s low of 1.0936. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $113.35 and then at $115.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $110.00 and then at the overnight low of $108.38. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls are having a good week. Corn and soybean market bulls remain in firm overall technical control and wheat futures are slightly bullish. Geopolitics remains the main driver of the grains and that suggests volatility continuing to be elevated for at least the near term. The all-important USDA planting intentions report on March 31 is coming into view for grain traders.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, March 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mostly higher overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The Russia-Ukraine war situation has not changed much recently, so risk aversion in the marketplace remains elevated. President Biden Thursday meets with NATO and EU leaders to discuss Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The two-day summit will be held at NATO headquarters in Brussels. 

The U.S. Treasury markets are under more selling pressure Tuesday, following more hawkish rhetoric coming from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Monday. The Fed chief said he is prepared to raise the key U.S. interest rate by 0.5% if conditions warrant. The Fed did a 0.25% rate hike last week. Powell also implied that the fight to keep inflation under control is important enough to risk slowing down U.S. economic growth in that effort.

The key outside markets see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $111.00 a barrel. Oil prices are rising sharply again on ideas the European Union is moving closer to banning oil imports from Russia. The U.S. dollar index is firmer today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.359%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the Johnson Redbook and chain store sales index, and the Richmond Fed business survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,500.00 and then at 4,550.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,415.00 and then at 4,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 14,500.00 and then at 14,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,183.75 and then at 14,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit another contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 150 3/32 and then at 151 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 148 26/32 and then at 148 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 123.11.5 and then at 123.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 122.26.0 and then at 122.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1104 and then at last week’s high of 1.1172. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0994 and then at last week’s low of 1.0936. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $115.01 and then at $117.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $109.30 and then at $107.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were higher in early U.S. pre-market trading, with wheat leading the way. Corn and soybean market bulls remain in firm overall technical control and wheat futures are now neutral. Geopolitics remains the main driver of the grains and that suggests volatility continuing to be elevated for at least the near term. The all-important USDA planting intentions report on March 31 is coming into view for grain traders.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, March 21–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. The Russia-Ukraine war continues on the front burner of the marketplace. Russia over the weekend reportedly used a hyper-sonic missile to attack a Ukrainian city, with some military analysts saying the war is entering a new chapter of deadlier consequences for Ukrainian citizens.

President Biden Thursday meets with NATO and EU leaders to discuss Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The two-day summit will be held at NATO headquarters in Brussels. Biden will also join a European Council meeting. During the summit, Biden will “discuss ongoing deterrence and defense efforts” and reaffirm the U.S. commitment to NATO allies, said the Biden administration.

In other news, traders continue to watch with interest the nickel market on the London Metals Exchange. On Monday nickel dropped its daily limit of 15%, to $31,380 a ton, for the fourth limit-down session in a row, after trading above $100,000 just a couple weeks ago. A big Chinese metal trader, nicknamed “Big Shot,” got caught in a big short-squeeze trade, driving prices sharply up.

The key outside markets see Nymex crude oil prices solidly higher and trading around $109.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly firmer today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.187%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Chicago Fed national activity index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. A price downtrend has been negated on the daily chart to suggest a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,465.75 and then at 4,500.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,400.00 and then at last Friday’s low of 4,364.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. A price downtrend on the daily chart has s been negated to suggest a market bottom is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 14,500.00 and then at 14,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,150.00 and then at 14,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 152 27/32 and then at 153 even. Shorter-term support lies at Friday’s low of 151 14/32 and then at the contract low of 150 27/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 124.25.5 and then at 125.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 124.06.0 and then at 124.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent price gains suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1172 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at last week’s low of 1.0936. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $110.00 and then at $102.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $107.00 and then at $105.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were higher in early U.S. pre-market trading, boosted by strong gains in crude oil prices. Corn and soybean market bulls remain in firm overall technical control and wheat futures are bearish. Geopolitics remains the main driver of the grains and that suggests volatility continuing to be elevated for at least the near term. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. The all-important USDA planting intentions report on March 31 is coming into view for grain traders.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, March 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly down and Asian shares mostly up. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. The Russia-Ukraine war that is into its third week, and its significant impact on sectors of world trade, continues to sap marketplace risk appetite. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are set to have a telephone conversation today, with its outcome potentially having pivotal implications on the war. The U.S. hopes to persuade China to distance itself from Russia to avoid U.S. sanctions. However, many think China may come to the aid of Russia in its war with Ukraine. On a more dour note, U.S. government defense officials believe the Russian army’s poor performance in Ukraine has backed Russian dictator Putin into a corner, which makes odds higher that Putin could resort to nuclear weapons amid his weakened conventional military. Heading into the weekend, look for risk aversion in the marketplace to become more elevated as Friday’s trading session progresses.

In a surprising development, Russia apparently has made a payment on U.S. dollar-denominated sovereign bonds, to avoid being in default. That rallied the Russian ruble just a bit. The Russian stock market remains closed.

The key outside markets see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $104.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is firmer today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.15%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes existing home sales and leading economic indicators.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The bears are in overall near-term technical control, but a price downtrend has stalled out to suggest a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,406.75 and then at 4,440.00. Support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 4,320.25 and then at 4,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in firm overall technical control but a price downtrend on the daily chart has stalled out. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 14,132.50 and then at the March high of 14,389.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 13,819.00 and then at 13,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low Wednesday. Bears are still in command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 153 9/32 and then at 154 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 151 14/32 and then at the contract low of 150 27/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low on Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 124.28.5 and then at 125.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 124.11.5 and then at 124.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1172 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at this week’s low of 1.0936. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $108.28 and then at $108.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $102.00 and then at $100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean market bulls remain in firm overall technical control and wheat futures are bearish. Geopolitics remains the main driver of the grains and that suggests volatility continuing to be elevated for at least the near term. The all-important USDA planting intentions report on March 31 is coming into view for grain traders.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff