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Daily Morning Report

The war drags on, but some markets moving past it

April 4, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, April 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are in near-term price uptrends. Markets in mainland China were closed for a holiday Monday.

The Russia-Ukraine war drags on, with the atrocities inflicted by Russian dictator Putin’s aggression becoming more apparent to the world. Such may prompt the U.S. and European Union to implement even more sanctions on Russia, including on its oil and natural gas exports. Still, from a markets perspective, not much has changed in the war the past couple weeks. That has allowed many markets to stabilize and become less volatile.

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $99.50 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is higher early today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.395%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index, and manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending higher on the daily bar chart and the bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,600.00 and then at the March high of 4,631.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,501.25 and then at 4,450.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the March high of 15,268.75 and then at 15,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 14,658.75 and then at 14,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid technical command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 150 13/32 and then at 151 even. Shorter-term support lies at Friday’s low of 147 29/32 and then at 147 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 122.21.5 and then at 123.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Friday’s low of 121.24.0 and then at 121.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1083 and then at 1.1105. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at last week’s low of 1.0977. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $102.50 and then at $105.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $97.78 and then at $96.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded recently. Wheat bulls and bears are on a level technical playing field. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Focus of grain traders is shifting to U.S. weather patters as corn and soybean planting season is not far off now.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

U.S. jobs report on deck Friday

April 1, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, April 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are in near-term price uptrends.

Here’s the latest news/analysis on the Russia-Ukraine war front from Broker SP Angel in a morning email dispatch: “The Russia-Ukraine war is unlikely to end until Russians are expelled from Ukraine or to a defensible position. Russia is highly unlikely to voluntarily exit the Ukraine but may be forced into retreat if reports of significant non-compliance by troops are true. Increasing reports of Russian soldiers refusing to fight in Ukraine are encouraging Ukraine forces in their drive to expel foreign forces. A U.S. report also suggests the Russian convoy into Kyiv may no longer exist. Further reports on Russian conscripts and students being sent into battle with poor equipment support news on the poor state of the Russian army. We suspect the Ukraine military will extract a high price while they have Russian forces on the run, partly to ensure the Russian army does not want to come back in a hurry. The West is likely to continue to fund the humiliation of Russia’s once proud military machine. We expect the war to continue at least for another few months as Ukraine forces work to expel the invaders.”

In other news, Euro zone inflation accelerated to a record 7.5% in March, year-on-year, from a revised 5.9% in February, mainly due to the Russia-Ukraine war driving up energy costs. These numbers call into question the European Central Bank’s inflation projection of just 5.1% for the year. Money markets are now pricing in more aggressive tightening of monetary policy from the European Central Bank this year.

Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s monthly U.S. employment situation report for March, which is expected to see the key non-farm payrolls number come in at up 490,000, compared to a rise of 678,000 seen in the February report.

Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $100.00 a barrel. The Biden administration is releasing up to 1 million barrels a day in the coming months from its strategic petroleum reserve, for a total of 180 million barrels. The Wall Street Journal reports that commodity prices, overall, in the first quarter rose at the fastest pace in over 30 years, led by rising energy costs.

Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.404%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), the ISM report on business manufacturing, construction spending, the global manufacturing PMI and domestic auto industry sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are modestly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and the bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,631.00 and then at 4,650.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,509.75 and then at 4,450.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,268.75 and then at 15,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,658.75 and then at 14,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 150 even and then at this week’s high of 150 13/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 148 8/32 and then at 147 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.4

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 122.21.5 and then at 123.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 121.28.5 and then at 121.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, bulls are working on starting a price uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1150 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at this week’s low of 1.0977. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $102.50 and then at $105.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $97.78 and then at $96.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed but mostly weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Thursday’s all-important USDA planting intentions report was bullish for corn and bearish for soybeans. Corn bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage, soybeans bulls the firm overall chart advantage but are fading, and wheat bulls and bears are on a level technical playing field, but prices are in near-term downtrends.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Gold, Crude prices have likely peaked

March 31, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

The Comex gold futures market hit a record intra-day high of $2,078.80 in early March, but has since backed well down from that level. Trading just recently has been choppy and sideways. Technical odds do favor at least a near-term market top is in place for the yellow metal, if not a major longer-term market top. Keep an eye on crude oil prices—the leader of the raw commodity sector. Crude oil is also showing strong signs that a major market top is in place, which if is the case, is a bearish weight on most of the raw commodity sector. The raw commodity bulls do have an ace to play and that’s problematic price inflation. The question is, has higher inflation already been factored into raw commodity market prices? Stay tuned! —Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Crude oil sharply down Thursday

March 31, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, March 31–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are in near-term price uptrends.

Today is the last trading day of the month and of the quarter, which makes it an extra important day from a technical charts perspective.

In overnight news, China’s manufacturing and services purchasing managers indexes (PMI) fell in March for the first time in nearly two years. The official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, a five-month low. The non-manufacturing PMI fell to 48.4, a seven-month low. A reading under 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector. China’s economy has been hit recently by strict lockdowns in major cities.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $101.00 a barrel. Reports said the Biden administration is mulling releasing up to 1 million barrels a day in the coming months from its strategic petroleum reserve, for a total of 180 million barrels. An OPEC meeting Thursday will see the cartel discuss its collective production level from May forward. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is higher early today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.322%. For perspective, the German 10-year bund is yielding 0.597% and the 10-year U.K. gilt is fetching 1.616%.

Traders are awaiting Friday’s monthly U.S. employment situation report for March, which is expected to see the key non-farm payrolls number come in at up 490,000, compared to a rise of 678,000 seen in the February report.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, personal income and outlays, the Chicago ISM business survey,

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and the bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,631.00 and then at 4,650.00. Support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 4,565.25 and then at this week’s low of 4,509.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,268.75 and then at 15,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 14,956.50 and then at this week’s low of 14,658.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in solid command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 151 even and then at 152 even. Shorter-term support lies at 149 even and then at Wednesday’s low of 148 6/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 123.10.0 and then at 123.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 122.19.0 and then at 122.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower after hitting a four-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, bulls are working on starting a price uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1215 and then at 1.1300. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1100 and then at 1.1050. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are sharply lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $103.00 and then at $105.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $100.00 and then at this week’s low of $98.44. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were slightly lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. The markets are pausing ahead of today’s all-important USDA planting intentions report. That’s one of the most important USDA reports of the year for the grain markets. Weekly USDA export sales are also out today. Look for more active trading in the immediate aftermath of 12:00 noon EDT planting intentions report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Stock market bulls upbeat this week

March 30, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, March 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed but mostly higher overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors continue to assess three major factors that have been impacting most markets: the Russia-Ukraine war, new Covid lockdowns in China, and rising global inflation. Even with all three of these ominous elements in the marketplace at present, U.S. stock indexes are now trending higher and have hit nine-week highs this week. There are signs peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are making some progress. However, it’s too early to get too optimistic on that matter.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $106.00 a barrel. An OPEC meeting is scheduled for Thursday to discuss cartel production levels from May forward. The U.S. dollar index is lower again early today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.38%. On Tuesday the 2-year and 10-year notes yield spread very briefly inverted.

Traders are starting to look ahead to Friday’s monthly U.S. employment situation report for March, which is expected to see the key non-farm payrolls number come in at up 490,000, compared to a rise of 678,000 seen in the February report.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the third estimate of four-quarter GDP, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down on mild profit taking after hitting a nine-week high on Tuesday. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and the bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,631.00 and then at 4,650.00. Support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 4,565.25 and then at this week’s low of 4,509.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a two-month high Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,268.75 and then at 15,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 14,956.50 and then at this week’s low of 14,658.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and not far above this week’s contract low. Bears are in solid command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 150 1/32 and then at 151 even. Shorter-term support lies at 148 even and then at 147 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and not far above this week’s contract low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 122.26.5 and then at 123.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 122.00.0 and then at 121.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher and hit a four-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, bulls have momentum and are working on starting a price uptrend. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1193 and then at 1.1250. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1100 and then at 1.1050. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $110.00 and then at this week’s high of $112.93. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $104.55 and then at $102.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed to higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean markets on Tuesday saw bearish downside price “breakouts” from sideways trading ranges at higher levels on the daily bar charts. Those are technical clues those markets have put in tops. Wheat prices are now trending lower. The grain market bulls are now in very serious trouble. The all-important USDA planting intentions report on Thursday is in focus for grain traders. That’s one of the most important USDA reports of the year for the grain markets. Look for active trading in the immediate aftermath of that report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Crude oil backs off again

March 29, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

The Nymex crude oil futures market has once again backed well down from its rally seen last week. This latest price action is one more solid technical clue that the spike high seen in early March is a major market top that won’t be taken out any time soon. Look for choppy and sideways trading action, but with a lower bias, in the near term. Stay tuned! —Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

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Disclaimer

There is a risk of financial loss in futures and options trading. Futures trading is neither easy nor an easy way to make money. It takes hard work to have success. Please use sound money management when trading futures. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing on this website is intended to be a trading recommendation to buy or sell futures or options. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Readers are solely responsible for how they use the information on this website.

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