Daily Morning Report

Thursday, March 31–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are in near-term price uptrends.

Today is the last trading day of the month and of the quarter, which makes it an extra important day from a technical charts perspective.

In overnight news, China’s manufacturing and services purchasing managers indexes (PMI) fell in March for the first time in nearly two years. The official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, a five-month low. The non-manufacturing PMI fell to 48.4, a seven-month low. A reading under 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector. China’s economy has been hit recently by strict lockdowns in major cities.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $101.00 a barrel. Reports said the Biden administration is mulling releasing up to 1 million barrels a day in the coming months from its strategic petroleum reserve, for a total of 180 million barrels. An OPEC meeting Thursday will see the cartel discuss its collective production level from May forward. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is higher early today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.322%. For perspective, the German 10-year bund is yielding 0.597% and the 10-year U.K. gilt is fetching 1.616%.

Traders are awaiting Friday’s monthly U.S. employment situation report for March, which is expected to see the key non-farm payrolls number come in at up 490,000, compared to a rise of 678,000 seen in the February report.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, personal income and outlays, the Chicago ISM business survey,

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and the bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,631.00 and then at 4,650.00. Support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 4,565.25 and then at this week’s low of 4,509.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,268.75 and then at 15,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 14,956.50 and then at this week’s low of 14,658.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in solid command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 151 even and then at 152 even. Shorter-term support lies at 149 even and then at Wednesday’s low of 148 6/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 123.10.0 and then at 123.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 122.19.0 and then at 122.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower after hitting a four-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, bulls are working on starting a price uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1215 and then at 1.1300. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1100 and then at 1.1050. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are sharply lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $103.00 and then at $105.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $100.00 and then at this week’s low of $98.44. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were slightly lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. The markets are pausing ahead of today’s all-important USDA planting intentions report. That’s one of the most important USDA reports of the year for the grain markets. Weekly USDA export sales are also out today. Look for more active trading in the immediate aftermath of 12:00 noon EDT planting intentions report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, March 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed but mostly higher overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors continue to assess three major factors that have been impacting most markets: the Russia-Ukraine war, new Covid lockdowns in China, and rising global inflation. Even with all three of these ominous elements in the marketplace at present, U.S. stock indexes are now trending higher and have hit nine-week highs this week. There are signs peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are making some progress. However, it’s too early to get too optimistic on that matter.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $106.00 a barrel. An OPEC meeting is scheduled for Thursday to discuss cartel production levels from May forward. The U.S. dollar index is lower again early today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.38%. On Tuesday the 2-year and 10-year notes yield spread very briefly inverted.

Traders are starting to look ahead to Friday’s monthly U.S. employment situation report for March, which is expected to see the key non-farm payrolls number come in at up 490,000, compared to a rise of 678,000 seen in the February report.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the third estimate of four-quarter GDP, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down on mild profit taking after hitting a nine-week high on Tuesday. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and the bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,631.00 and then at 4,650.00. Support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 4,565.25 and then at this week’s low of 4,509.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a two-month high Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,268.75 and then at 15,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 14,956.50 and then at this week’s low of 14,658.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and not far above this week’s contract low. Bears are in solid command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 150 1/32 and then at 151 even. Shorter-term support lies at 148 even and then at 147 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and not far above this week’s contract low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 122.26.5 and then at 123.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 122.00.0 and then at 121.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher and hit a four-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, bulls have momentum and are working on starting a price uptrend. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1193 and then at 1.1250. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1100 and then at 1.1050. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $110.00 and then at this week’s high of $112.93. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $104.55 and then at $102.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed to higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean markets on Tuesday saw bearish downside price “breakouts” from sideways trading ranges at higher levels on the daily bar charts. Those are technical clues those markets have put in tops. Wheat prices are now trending lower. The grain market bulls are now in very serious trouble. The all-important USDA planting intentions report on Thursday is in focus for grain traders. That’s one of the most important USDA reports of the year for the grain markets. Look for active trading in the immediate aftermath of that report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, March 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mostly higher overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite may have up-ticked just slightly Tuesday as Russia and Ukraine are holding more ceasefire talks. Also, the grind of that war and no major new developments recently have somewhat numbed the marketplace. Limiting trader and investor enthusiasm, especially in the raw commodity sector, is Covid cases that are on the rise in China, including China placing its largest city of Shanghai in a major rolling lockdown. It seems the pandemic just cannot be tamped down for long.

The key outside markets see Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $107.50 a barrel. An OPEC meeting is scheduled for Thursday to discuss cartel production levels from May forward. The U.S. dollar index is lower early today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.423%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail reports, the monthly house price index, the consumer confidence index and the S&P Core-Logic home price indexes.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up and hit a nine-week high in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and the bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,600.00 and then at 4,650.00. Support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 4,509.75 and then at 4,450.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a two-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the February high of 15,261.25 and then at 15,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 14,658.75 and then at 14,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and near this week’s contract low. Bears are in solid command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 148 21/32 and then at 149 even. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s contract low of 146 10/32 and then at 146 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and near Monday’s contract low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 122.06.0 and then at 122.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 120.30.5 and then at 120.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1100 and then at 1.1150. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at this week’s low of 1.0977. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $108.00 and then at $110.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $102.83 and then at $100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean market bulls are in firm overall technical control at elevated prices, while wheat futures are neutral. The all-important USDA planting intentions report on Thursday is coming into clearer focus for grain traders. That’s one of the most important USDA reports of the year for the grain markets. Look for very active trading in the aftermath of that report, and likely more subdued trading today and Wednesday, heading into that report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, March 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The Russia-Ukraine war continues to sap trader and investor confidence, with rising inflation doing the same. The marketplace is now factoring in a more aggressive pace for the Federal Reserve to raise U.S. interest rates, including 50 basis points at the May FOMC meeting, and maybe the same at the meeting after that.

Also worrisome to the marketplace is China placing its major city of Shanghai in a major Covid rolling lockdown. Reports said Tesla has halted production in its factory at Shanghai. Crude oil prices dropped in part on the news.

The key outside markets see Nymex crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $109.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher early today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.51%–the highest in almost three years. Parts of the yield curve have now inverted, which is also suggesting weakening U.S. economic growth.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the advance economic indicators report and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the February high of 4,578.50 and then at 4,600.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,514.00 and then at 4,450.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 14,840.50 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 14,572.50 and then at 14,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract low overnight. Bears are in solid command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 149 even and then at 150 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 146 10/32 and then at 146 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 122.00.0 and then at 122.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 120.30.5 and then at 120.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1104 and then at 1.1172. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0977 and then at 1.0936. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are sharply lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $110.00 and then at the overnight high of $112.93. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $107.50 and then at $105.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, pressured in part by sharp losses in crude oil. Corn and soybean market bulls are in firm overall technical control at elevated prices, while wheat futures are neutral. The all-important USDA planting intentions report on Thursday is coming into clearer focus for grain traders. That’s one of the most important USDA reports of the year for the grain markets.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff