Daily Morning Report

Thursday, March 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed overnight. Asian equity markets rallied for a second day after the Chinese government said it would work to keep its stock and financial markets buoyant. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins, following very strong gains Wednesday. Risk aversion has receded just a bit this week, on trader and investor hopes that Russia and Ukraine may be making some progress in their peace talks. However, Russian shelling and killing of civilians in Ukraine continues, as U.S. President Biden labeled Russian President Putin a war criminal. Don’t be surprised to see risk aversion in the marketplace become much keener in the near term, as it presently appears “hope” on the peace talks is trumping “reality.” The gold market is suggesting such, as the safe-haven metal trades sharply higher Thursday.

Traders are still digesting the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting that ended Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Powell. The Fed, as expected, raised its Fed funds rate by 0.25%–the first rate hike since 2018. The FOMC signaled it may raise rates six more times this year and a few times next year, in an effort to tamp down problematic inflation. After the FOMC statement and Powell’s press conference, the marketplace deemed the Fed as being a bit more hawkish on fighting inflation than expected.

In overnight news, the Euro zone February consumer price index rose by 5.9%, year-on-year, which is a record high for the bloc.

The key outside markets see Nymex crude oil prices solidly higher and trading around $99.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is lower again today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.123%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, new residential construction, and industrial production and capacity utilization.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading after strong gains posted Wednesday. Prices are still trending lower on the daily bar chart and the bears are in  overall near-term technical control. However, more price gains this week would negate the downtrend to suggest a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,367.50 and then at 4,410.50. Support for active traders is seen at 4,300.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of 4,239.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit lower in early U.S. trading, after strong gains Wednesday. Bears are still in firm overall technical control amid a price downtrend in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 14,025.00 and then at 14,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,750.00 and then at 13,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low Wednesday. Bears are still in command, to suggest more downside. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 153 9/32 and then at 154 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 151 20/32 and then at the contract low of 150 27/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low on Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 124.28.5 and then at 125.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 124.04.0 and then at the contract low of 123.25.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1159 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at this week’s low of 1.0936. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Recent price action still strongly suggests a major market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $102.50 and then at $105.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $95.00 and then at this week’s low of $93.53. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mostly up in early U.S. pre-market trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Corn and soybean market bulls remain in firm overall technical control, but wheat is bearish. It’s my strong bias that crude oil and wheat futures have put in major market tops, and that makes it likely that corn and soybeans have done the same.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, March 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mostly higher overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly higher openings when the New York day session begins. News overnight that both Russia and Ukraine said there are signs of progress on their discussions to stop the war has boosted trader and investor risk appetite at mid-week. Reports said discussions include having Ukraine become a neutral country like Sweden. However, the shooting and shelling continues in Ukraine.

China and Asian markets rallied sharply overnight on comments from Chinese economic officials that the government will implement market-friendly policies and keep the capital markets running smoothly. Officials also said they wanted more transparency and predictability in their policies. The moves come as China has locked down cities due to the Covid virus again spreading rapidly. That has put price pressure on raw commodity futures markets this week, on notions of reduced demand coming from the world’s second-largest economy.

The U.S. data point of the week is the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting that began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Powell. It’s widely believed the Fed will raise its Fed funds rate by 0.25%–the first rate hike since 2018. Powell’s comments on the war and inflation will be closely scrutinized by the marketplace.

The key outside markets see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $96.00 a barrel. Crude prices have backed way off from last week’s 14-year highs to strongly suggest oil prices have put in major tops. The U.S. dollar index is lower again today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.165%. U.S. Treasury yields are on the rise amid inflation fears that are high.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, retail sales, import and export prices, the NAHB housing market index, manufacturing and trade inventories and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending lower on the daily bar chart and the bears are in firm overall near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,326.75 and then at 4,375.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,239.90 and then at 4,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting an 11-month low Tuesday. Bears are in solid overall technical control amid a price downtrend in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 13,858.00 and then at 14,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,417.25 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract low overnight. Bears are in command, to suggest more downside. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 153 13/32 and then at 154 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 151 6/32 and then at 151 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading but hit a contract low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 125.12.0 and then at 125.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 124.10.5 and then at 124.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1056 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0936 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Recent price action strongly suggests a major market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $100.00 and then at Tuesday’s high of $102.58. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $93.53 and then at $92.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean market bulls remain in firm technical control, but wheat is bearish. It’s my strong bias that crude oil and wheat futures have put in major market tops, and that makes it likely that corn and soybeans have done the same. Remember that just because markets may have put in tops, that does not mean that their prices cannot remain elevated for some time to come.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, March 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mostly lower overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite remains elevated but there are some glimmers of hope that are pressing oil and gold prices down and bond yields up. Russia-Ukraine talks are continuing despite Russia stepping up its war campaign against Ukrainian citizens. Also, reports said high-level U.S.-China talks on the matter Monday were constructive.

China has locked down more cities due to the Covid virus again spreading rapidly. That has put price pressure on raw commodity futures markets early this week, on notions of reduced demand coming from the world’s second-largest economy.

The U.S. data point of the week is the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. It’s widely believed the Fed will raise its Fed funds rate by 0.25%. The Fed and chairman Jay Powell’s comments on the war and inflation will be closely scrutinized by the marketplace.

Traders will closely examine the latest U.S. inflation report out Tuesday morning—the producer price index for February, which is forecast up 0.9% from January. If realized, that number would be hot.

The key outside markets see Nymex crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $97.50 a barrel. Crude prices have backed way off from last week’s 14-year highs. That strongly suggests oil prices may have put in at least near-term tops. The U.S. dollar index is lower again today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.11%. U.S. Treasury yields are on the rise and hit a 2.5-year high Monday.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store sales reports, the Empire State manufacturing survey, the producer price index, and Treasury international capital data.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending lower on the daily bar chart and the bears are in firm overall near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,244.75 and then at 4,300.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,129.50 and then at the February low of 4,094.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting an 11-month low overnight. Bears are in solid overall technical control amid a price downtrend in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,441.00 and then at 13,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,942.50 and then at 12,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract low overnight. Bears are in command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 153 10/32 and then at 154 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 151 28/32 and then at 151 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading but hit a contract low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 125.08.5 and then at 125.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 124.30.5 and then at 124.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1056 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0936 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are sharply lower in early U.S. trading and have dropped well below $100 a barrel. Recent price action strongly suggests at least a near-term market top is in place, if not a major top. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $100.00 and then at the overnight high of $102.58. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $92.50 and then at $90.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed but mostly lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean market bulls remain in technical control, but wheat is bearish. It’s my strong bias that crude oil and wheat futures have put in major market tops, and that makes it likely that corn and soybeans have done the same. Remember that just because markets may have put in tops, that does not mean that their prices cannot remain elevated for some time to come.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, March 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mostly higher overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. There is just a bit of optimism on de-escalating the Russia-Ukraine war, despite the fact it still raging in Ukraine. The U.S. and China are set to hold their first high-level talks since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The White House said National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan will meet in Rome Monday with China’s top diplomat, Communist Party Politburo member Yang Jiechi. U.S. officials say Russia has asked China for military aid for its war with Ukraine. That suggests Russian President Putin has faced more setbacks in the war than he anticipated. U.S. officials say they haven’t seen evidence Beijing has tried to circumvent sanctions on Russia. The thinking is that if China and the U.S. show a united front on opposing the war, Russia may de-escalate. However, others doubt Putin will back off and show weakness. Meantime, Russia and Ukraine are still meeting for talks, although there have been no major break-throughs despite notions some progress has been made.

In other news, China has locked down a major city, Shenzhen, which is a technology hub, due to Covid again spreading. Chinese stocks dropped on the news. That has also helped to put some price pressure on raw commodity markets to start the trading week.

The U.S. data point of the week will be the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. It’s widely believed the Fed will raise its Fed funds rate by 0.25%.

The key outside markets see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $104.00 a barrel. Crude prices have backed way off from last week’s 14-year highs. That suggests oil prices may have put in at least near-term tops. The U.S. dollar index is lower today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.08%. U.S. Treasury yields are on the rise. For perspective, the U.K. 10-year gild yield is presently 1.566% and the German 10-year bund is yielding 0.314%.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending lower on the daily bar chart and the bears are in firm overall near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,300.00 and then at last week’s high of 4,326.75. Support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 4,189.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,130.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in solid overall technical control amid a price downtrend in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 13,875.50 and then at 14,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 13,106.75 and then at the February low of 13,031.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are sharply down and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 154 even and then at 155 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 153 7/32 and then at 153 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 125.20.0 and then at today’s high of 126.04.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 125.05.0 and then at 125.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1026 and then at Friday’s high of 1.1081. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0936 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Recent price action suggests at least a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $105.00 and then at the overnight high of $109.72. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $100.00 and then at $97.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean market bulls remain in technical control, but wheat has turned bearish. It’s my strong bias that wheat futures have put in a major market top, and that makes it likely that corn and soybeans have done the same. Look for continued higher daily price volatility in the near term. Grain traders, you need to keep an eye on crude oil, which is sharply down today. Crude has also shown signs of topping out. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff