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Daily Morning Report

Putin remark lifts marketplace sentiment…but

March 11, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, March 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Reports just out are saying Russian President Putin has made comments that the talks with Ukraine are seeing positive shifts. That has lifted trader and investor risk appetite, at least for now. However, many market watchers wonder how Putin can back off from his current aggression against Ukraine and still save face with Russians, who have a history of being very unkind to leaders who perform poorly in wars. Meantime, Russia said it will send thousands of fighters from the Middle East to join its forces in Ukraine. Two cities in western Ukraine were hit by airstrikes overnight. President Biden is lobbying Congress to end normal relations with Russia, which would put Russia in with the likes of North Korea and Iran.

The U.S. Senate overnight passed a one-year, $1.5 trillion federal funding bill, ending the risk of a U.S. government shutdown. The legislation included $13.5 billion in humanitarian and security funds for Ukraine.

The key outside markets see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $108.00 a barrel. Crude prices have backed way off from this week’s 14-year highs. That suggests oil prices may have put in at least near-term tops. The U.S. dollar index is a bit weaker today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 1.98%. U.S. Treasury yields are on the rise this week. It’s been said that bond traders are the smartest traders around. This week’s rising U.S. Treasury yields hint that bond market traders sense peak anxiety from a markets perspective, regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, is now past and that attention is turning more toward rising inflation.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending lower on the daily bar chart and the bears are in firm near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,326.75 and then at 4,375.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,222.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,130.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in solid control amid a price downtrend in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 14,000.00 and then at 14,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,451.50 and then at this week’s low of 13,106.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded badly this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are  bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 155 23/32 and then at 156 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 154 13/32 and then at 154 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.13.5 and then at 126.26.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at 125.20.0 and then at the February low of 125.14.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1159 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at 1.0950. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are exhausted to suggest at least a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $110.25 and then at Thursday’s high of $114.88. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $103.63 and then at $100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mostly lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean market bulls remain in solid technical control, but wheat has turned bearish. It’s my strong bias that wheat futures have put in a major market top, and that makes it likely that corn and soybeans have done the same. Look for continued higher daily price volatility in the near term. Grain traders, you need to keep an eye on crude oil. Crude has also showed signs of topping out this week. As goes crude, so goes much of the raw commodity sector, including the grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

U.S. inflation data, ECB meeting on tap Thursday

March 10, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, March 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly down and Asian shares mostly up. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Some stock market bears are calling Wednesday’s U.S. rally a “dead-cat bounce.” The U.S. stock indexes remain in near-term price downtrends on the daily charts. Risk aversion remains elevated amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Talks between the two warring nations have produced no positive results, including those held today.

The U.S. data point of the day Thursday is the consumer price index report for February, which is expected to come in up 0.7% from January and up 7.8%, year-on-year. If realized, those numbers would be hot, at a four-decade high, and would continue to stoke inflation that threatens to derail global economic growth just as most countries are finally getting past the Covid pandemic.

Meantime, in the Euro zone the European Central Bank is meeting today. No major changes in ECB monetary policy are expected but the wording of comments from ECB President Legarde will be parsed by the marketplace.

Reports said a bipartisan group of U.S. senators is considering passing a bill for sanctions on the purchase or sale of Russian ‘blood’ gold. Russia reportedly has a gold stockpile valued at $132 billion. The lawmakers want to limit Russia’s ability to utilize its gold reserves—namely selling gold for cash. Some analysts say such a move is also targeting China and India, as Russian gold is already cut off from London and New York markets. The U.S. lawmakers pointed to Venezuela’s apparent ability to bypass U.S. sanctions and launder money through gold sales.

The key outside markets see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $113.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is firmer today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 1.924%. U.S. Treasury yields are on the rise this week.   

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the consumer price index, real earnings and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart and the bears are in solid near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,273.25 and then at this week’s high of 4,317.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,130.25 and then at the February low of 4,094.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid control amid a price downtrend in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,875.50 and then at 14,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,106.75 and then at the February low of 13,031.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 156 3/32 and then at 157 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 155 8/32 and then at 155 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.26.5 and then at 127.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 126.10.0 and then at 126.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1133 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1050 and then at 1.1000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but are exhausted to suggest a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $115.00 and then at $116.57. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $110.00 and then at the overnight low of $107.01. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain market bulls remain in technical control, but there are a few warning signs that, from a time perspective, the markets are close to or have topped out. It’s my bias that wheat futures have put in a major market top, and such makes it likely that corn and soybeans have done the same. Look for continued higher daily price volatility in the near term. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

“Dr. Copper’s” prognosis on raw commodity sector

March 9, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

With the Russia-Ukraine war intensifying along with marketplace uncertainty and anxiety, and with both countries being major raw commodity producers and exporters, it would seem raw commodity futures markets’ prices still have more room on the upside—even as many raw commodity markets are at multi-year and even record highs. However, there are some early warning signs the explosive gains in commodities may be close to peaking. Remember that futures markets incorporate into their prices’ structures all known and expected fundamental factors. The copper market, called by traders “Dr. Copper” because of the red industrial metal’s worldwide importance and its history of foretelling price moves in other markets including stocks, on Monday soared to a record high above $5.00 a pound, only to promptly reverse course and close sharply down on the day. That price action produced a big and bearish “key reversal” down on the daily bar chart. That’s one technical clue of a price top in a market. Neither I nor anyone else knows when major market tops occur. However, this market watcher of nearly 40 years has seen his share of major market tops, and they occur in situations similar to what many commodity markets are experiencing now. The majority of major market tops occur when traders and investors least expect them and many times before the actual bullish fundamental event that sparked the bull market move ever fully plays out. Stay tuned! —Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

U.S. stock indexes rebound at mid-week

March 9, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, March 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly up and Asian shares mostly down. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. indexes are seeing corrective bounces following recent losses, but are still in near-term price downtrends on the daily charts. Risk aversion remains elevated amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. More and more U.S. companies are pulling away from Russia, including McDonalds and Coca Cola.

Nickel futures are not trading anywhere in the world at present after prices in Shanghai hit their daily limit higher Wednesday. Reports said a single stockpiler had amassed over 50% of all London Metals Exchange nickel inventories, representing around 43,000 metric tons. Trading of nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw prices surge 17% to the daily limit. Nickel on the LME was suspended Tuesday after prices surged 250% in the first two days of trading this week. Trading on the LME will not resume before Friday, said the exchange. Reports also said a big nickel futures trader in China, called Big Shot, was caught in a major “short squeeze” of over 200,000 metric tons in futures contracts, valued at around $8 billion. The reports said Big Shot, now called Little Shot by traders, is working with banks to unwind his big loss and avoid default.

Bitcoin prices are sharply higher today. Gold prices are down on a corrective pullback after Comex futures hit a record intra-day high on Tuesday.

The key outside markets see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $120.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is lower today after hitting a 21-month high Monday. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 1.903%. Treasury yields are on the rise at mid-week.  

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Prices are still trending lower on the daily bar chart and the bears are in firm near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,317.00 and then at 4,366.25. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,130.25 and then at the February low of 4,094.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bears are still in solid control amid a price downtrend in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,875.50 and then at 14,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,106.75 and then at the February low of 13,031.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 157 21/32 and then at 158 even. Shorter-term support lies at 156 even and then at 155 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 127.14.5 and then at 127.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 126.20.0 and then at 126.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher on more short covering after hitting a nearly two-year low on Monday. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1030 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0928 and then at this week’s low of 1.0845. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage but may be exhausted or close to it. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $122.50 and then at $125.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $115.54 and then at $112.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed in volatile early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain market bulls remain in technical control, but there are a few warning signs that, from a time perspective, the markets are close to or have topped out. It’s my bias that wheat futures have put in a major market top, and such makes it likely that corn and soybeans have done the same. However, the Russia-Ukraine war will keep grain futures prices elevated. Look for continued high daily price volatility in the near term. Traders are looking ahead to the monthly USDA supply and demand report on Wednesday morning.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Gold price spikes above $2,000 on safe-haven demand

March 7, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Comex gold futures overnight prices have early this week hit a 1.5-year high of $2,007.50 on safe-haven demand amid arguably the biggest geopolitical crisis in 30 years. The all-time high in gold futures was set in August of 2020, at $2,063.00. Look for more upside in the yellow metal in the near-term, including the potential for a new record high sooner rather than later. Stay tuned! —Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Marketplace tensions high Monday as oil prices spike

March 7, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, March 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were lower overnight and the U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Geopolitical tensions remain very high as the Russian invasion of Ukraine is set to enter its second week with no off-ramp seen to the conflict that has also created a humanitarian crisis. The U.S. and Europe are considering banning Russian oil imports, which ratchets up further the anxiety in the marketplace, as well as further stokes inflation that has already become problematic. Said one analyst: “This toxic cocktail poses a huge problem for central banks.”

Nymex crude oil prices are sharply higher, at a 14-year high and trading around $123.00 a barrel. Nymex crude prices overnight spiked to a high of $130.50. The all-time high in nearby Nymex crude oil prices was scored in July of 2008, at $147.27 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher again today and hit a 21-month high. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 1.73%. Treasury yields have declined recently on flight-to-quality buying of U.S. debt. 

Comex gold futures overnight prices hit a 1.5-year high of $2,007.50 on safe-haven demand amid arguably the biggest geopolitical crisis in 30 years. The all-time high in gold futures was set in August of 2020, at $2,063.00. Palladium and copper futures hit record highs overnight. Crypto currencies are under selling pressure Monday, as traders and investors consider them higher risk assets.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the employment trends index and consumer credit.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart and the bears are in solid technical control. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,301.00 and then at last Friday’s high of 4,366.25. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,230.00 and then at 4,204.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid control amid a price downtrend in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,760.00 and then at 14,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,531.00 and then at 13,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a two-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 160 even and then at the overnight high of 160 12/32. Shorter-term support lies at 158 even and then at 157 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker after hitting a two-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 129.00.0 and then at the overnight high of 129.04.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 128.08.0 and then at 128.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower and hit a nearly two-year low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0967 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0845 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are strongly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $125.00 and then at $127.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $121.33 and then at $120.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were sharply higher in early U.S. pre-market trading, with wheat leading the way and hitting a record high. Grain market bulls are remain very strong, but there are warning signs that, from a time perspective, the markets are close to topping out. Extreme price moves at higher levels many times produce “blow off tops.” The Russia-Ukraine war will keep grain futures prices elevated. Look for continued high daily price volatility in the near term. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

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Disclaimer

There is a risk of financial loss in futures and options trading. Futures trading is neither easy nor an easy way to make money. It takes hard work to have success. Please use sound money management when trading futures. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing on this website is intended to be a trading recommendation to buy or sell futures or options. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Readers are solely responsible for how they use the information on this website.

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