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Daily Morning Report

U.S. stock indexes rebound at mid-week

March 9, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, March 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly up and Asian shares mostly down. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. indexes are seeing corrective bounces following recent losses, but are still in near-term price downtrends on the daily charts. Risk aversion remains elevated amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. More and more U.S. companies are pulling away from Russia, including McDonalds and Coca Cola.

Nickel futures are not trading anywhere in the world at present after prices in Shanghai hit their daily limit higher Wednesday. Reports said a single stockpiler had amassed over 50% of all London Metals Exchange nickel inventories, representing around 43,000 metric tons. Trading of nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw prices surge 17% to the daily limit. Nickel on the LME was suspended Tuesday after prices surged 250% in the first two days of trading this week. Trading on the LME will not resume before Friday, said the exchange. Reports also said a big nickel futures trader in China, called Big Shot, was caught in a major “short squeeze” of over 200,000 metric tons in futures contracts, valued at around $8 billion. The reports said Big Shot, now called Little Shot by traders, is working with banks to unwind his big loss and avoid default.

Bitcoin prices are sharply higher today. Gold prices are down on a corrective pullback after Comex futures hit a record intra-day high on Tuesday.

The key outside markets see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $120.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is lower today after hitting a 21-month high Monday. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 1.903%. Treasury yields are on the rise at mid-week.  

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Prices are still trending lower on the daily bar chart and the bears are in firm near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,317.00 and then at 4,366.25. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,130.25 and then at the February low of 4,094.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bears are still in solid control amid a price downtrend in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,875.50 and then at 14,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,106.75 and then at the February low of 13,031.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 157 21/32 and then at 158 even. Shorter-term support lies at 156 even and then at 155 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 127.14.5 and then at 127.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 126.20.0 and then at 126.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher on more short covering after hitting a nearly two-year low on Monday. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1030 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0928 and then at this week’s low of 1.0845. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage but may be exhausted or close to it. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $122.50 and then at $125.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $115.54 and then at $112.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed in volatile early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain market bulls remain in technical control, but there are a few warning signs that, from a time perspective, the markets are close to or have topped out. It’s my bias that wheat futures have put in a major market top, and such makes it likely that corn and soybeans have done the same. However, the Russia-Ukraine war will keep grain futures prices elevated. Look for continued high daily price volatility in the near term. Traders are looking ahead to the monthly USDA supply and demand report on Wednesday morning.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Gold price spikes above $2,000 on safe-haven demand

March 7, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Comex gold futures overnight prices have early this week hit a 1.5-year high of $2,007.50 on safe-haven demand amid arguably the biggest geopolitical crisis in 30 years. The all-time high in gold futures was set in August of 2020, at $2,063.00. Look for more upside in the yellow metal in the near-term, including the potential for a new record high sooner rather than later. Stay tuned! —Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Marketplace tensions high Monday as oil prices spike

March 7, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, March 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were lower overnight and the U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Geopolitical tensions remain very high as the Russian invasion of Ukraine is set to enter its second week with no off-ramp seen to the conflict that has also created a humanitarian crisis. The U.S. and Europe are considering banning Russian oil imports, which ratchets up further the anxiety in the marketplace, as well as further stokes inflation that has already become problematic. Said one analyst: “This toxic cocktail poses a huge problem for central banks.”

Nymex crude oil prices are sharply higher, at a 14-year high and trading around $123.00 a barrel. Nymex crude prices overnight spiked to a high of $130.50. The all-time high in nearby Nymex crude oil prices was scored in July of 2008, at $147.27 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher again today and hit a 21-month high. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 1.73%. Treasury yields have declined recently on flight-to-quality buying of U.S. debt. 

Comex gold futures overnight prices hit a 1.5-year high of $2,007.50 on safe-haven demand amid arguably the biggest geopolitical crisis in 30 years. The all-time high in gold futures was set in August of 2020, at $2,063.00. Palladium and copper futures hit record highs overnight. Crypto currencies are under selling pressure Monday, as traders and investors consider them higher risk assets.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the employment trends index and consumer credit.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart and the bears are in solid technical control. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,301.00 and then at last Friday’s high of 4,366.25. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,230.00 and then at 4,204.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid control amid a price downtrend in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,760.00 and then at 14,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,531.00 and then at 13,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a two-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 160 even and then at the overnight high of 160 12/32. Shorter-term support lies at 158 even and then at 157 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker after hitting a two-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 129.00.0 and then at the overnight high of 129.04.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 128.08.0 and then at 128.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower and hit a nearly two-year low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0967 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0845 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are strongly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $125.00 and then at $127.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $121.33 and then at $120.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were sharply higher in early U.S. pre-market trading, with wheat leading the way and hitting a record high. Grain market bulls are remain very strong, but there are warning signs that, from a time perspective, the markets are close to topping out. Extreme price moves at higher levels many times produce “blow off tops.” The Russia-Ukraine war will keep grain futures prices elevated. Look for continued high daily price volatility in the near term. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Tensions very high to end trading week

March 4, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, March 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were lower overnight and the U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Tensions are very high to end the trading week, on overnight news that Russian troops in Ukraine took over the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, which was on fire just before the Russians seized the plant. Said one analyst: “Nobody will want to be short risk going into this weekend.”

Bloomberg in a daily email dispatch reports: “Hedge funds are betting on an extended rally in crude which at least one says could send prices to $200 a barrel. In Europe, natural gas prices remain extremely volatile as authorities prepare for severe economic consequences should Russia cut off supplies.”

Gold and silver markets remain supported by safe-haven demand amid arguably the biggest geopolitical crisis in 30 years. A Dow Jones Newswire headline today reads, “Gold ETFs flooded with money as investors seek safety.” Gold has once again proven all of its safe-haven naysayers wrong. When the going gets really tough, the yellow metal still shines the brightest.

Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s February U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen coming in at up 440,000 after a gain of 467,000 in January. This report will likely be less markets-sensitive as Fed Chairman Powell this week signaled the Fed will do a 0.25% interest rate increase at its FOMC meeting this month.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $110.00 a barrel after hitting a 13.5-year high of $116.57 on Thursday. The U.S. dollar index is higher again today and hit a 21-month high. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 1.778%. 

There is no other U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart and the bears are in firm technical control. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,366.25 and then at this week’s high of 4,410.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,252.00 and then at 4,219.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in firm control amid a price downtrend in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 14,085.00 and then at this week’s high of 14,389.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,708.00 and then at 13,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 159 22/32 and then at 160 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 156 20/32 and then at this week’s low of 154 31/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 128.27.5 and then at this week’s high of 128.31.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 127.12.5 and then at 127.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are solidly lower and hit a nearly two-year low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1105 and then at Thursday’s high of 1.1160. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at 1.0950. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $112.84 and then at $114.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $107.27 and then at $105.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mostly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading, with wheat leading the way and hitting a 14-year high. Grain market bulls are still very strong, but there are warning signs that, from a time perspective, the markets are close to topping out. Extreme price moves at higher levels many times produce “blow off tops.” The Russia-Ukraine war will keep grain futures prices elevated. Look for continued high daily price volatility in the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Wheat goes parabolic, suggest market top close

March 3, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

The wheat futures markets this week soared to 14-year highs above $11 a bushel. The wheat markets have gone “parabolic” in trading parlance, meaning prices shooting nearly straight up. History shows that during major bull runs this type of price action many times produces a “blow off top” and the bulls press their case and then run out of gas. And if the wheat futures markets are near major tops, then very likely so are corn and soybeans. Importantly, grain and all commodity market traders need to keep an extra close eye on crude oil. If crude oil futures prices keep trending higher, that would continue to be a bullish booster for the raw commodity market sector. And if crude oil shows solid signs of topping out, so, too, likely would many other commodity markets. Stay tuned! —Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Nymex crude oil soars to 13.5-year high above $116

March 3, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, March 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed overnight and the U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion remains elevated amid the Russia-Ukraine war that has intensified. Crude oil and grain prices are soaring and that’s also stoking inflation fears. In a stunning inflation report coming from the Euro zone, its January producer price index rose 30.6%, year-on-year, mostly due to rising energy prices.

Bloomberg in an email dispatch Thursday morning reported, “With traders continuing to avoid Russian oil supplies over sanctions uncertainty, OPEC-plus not hiking their scheduled quota increase Wednesday and Iran talks still not resolved, traders are paying the biggest premium in more than two years to bet on higher prices. Aluminum, nickel, zinc and wheat all continue to rise, putting the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index on course for its biggest weekly gain since 1960.”

Fed Chairman Powell speaks again to U.S. lawmakers Thursday, after he on Wednesday signaled a 0.25% interest rate increase is coming in a couple weeks.

On Friday comes the February U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen coming in at up 440,000 after a gain of 467,000 in January.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices posting more strong gains and trading around $114.00 a barrel after hitting an 13.5-year high of $116.57 overnight. The U.S. dollar index is higher again today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 1.854%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, revised productivity and costs, the U.S. services PMI, the ISM report on business services, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, monthly chain store sales and the global services PMI.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart and the bears are in firm technical control. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,391.00 and then at 4,450.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,252.00 and then at 4,219.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in firm control amid a price downtrend in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 14,324.25 and then at 14,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,708.00 and then at 13,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading amid this week’s higher volatility. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 156 30/32 and then at 158 even. Shorter-term support lies at Wednesday’s low of 155 19/32 and then at this week’s low of 154 31/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 127.20.5 and then at 128.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Wednesday’s low of 127.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 126.23.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1200 and then at Tuesday’s high of 1.1270. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1098 and then at 1.1050. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are a higher and hit an 13.5-year high of $116.57 in overnight U.S. trading. Bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $116.57 and then at $118.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $110.00 and then at $107.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mostly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading, with wheat leading the way and hitting a multi-year high. Grain market bulls are still strong, but there are warning signs that, from a time perspective, the markets are close to topping out. Extreme price moves at higher levels many times produce “blow off tops.” The Russia-Ukraine war will keep grain futures prices elevated. Look for continued high daily price volatility in the near term. On tap Thursday is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

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Disclaimer

There is a risk of financial loss in futures and options trading. Futures trading is neither easy nor an easy way to make money. It takes hard work to have success. Please use sound money management when trading futures. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing on this website is intended to be a trading recommendation to buy or sell futures or options. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Readers are solely responsible for how they use the information on this website.

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