Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, March 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mostly higher overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite may have up-ticked just slightly Tuesday as Russia and Ukraine are holding more ceasefire talks. Also, the grind of that war and no major new developments recently have somewhat numbed the marketplace. Limiting trader and investor enthusiasm, especially in the raw commodity sector, is Covid cases that are on the rise in China, including China placing its largest city of Shanghai in a major rolling lockdown. It seems the pandemic just cannot be tamped down for long.

The key outside markets see Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $107.50 a barrel. An OPEC meeting is scheduled for Thursday to discuss cartel production levels from May forward. The U.S. dollar index is lower early today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.423%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail reports, the monthly house price index, the consumer confidence index and the S&P Core-Logic home price indexes.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up and hit a nine-week high in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and the bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,600.00 and then at 4,650.00. Support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 4,509.75 and then at 4,450.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a two-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the February high of 15,261.25 and then at 15,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 14,658.75 and then at 14,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and near this week’s contract low. Bears are in solid command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 148 21/32 and then at 149 even. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s contract low of 146 10/32 and then at 146 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and near Monday’s contract low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 122.06.0 and then at 122.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 120.30.5 and then at 120.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1100 and then at 1.1150. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at this week’s low of 1.0977. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $108.00 and then at $110.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $102.83 and then at $100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean market bulls are in firm overall technical control at elevated prices, while wheat futures are neutral. The all-important USDA planting intentions report on Thursday is coming into clearer focus for grain traders. That’s one of the most important USDA reports of the year for the grain markets. Look for very active trading in the aftermath of that report, and likely more subdued trading today and Wednesday, heading into that report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, March 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The Russia-Ukraine war continues to sap trader and investor confidence, with rising inflation doing the same. The marketplace is now factoring in a more aggressive pace for the Federal Reserve to raise U.S. interest rates, including 50 basis points at the May FOMC meeting, and maybe the same at the meeting after that.

Also worrisome to the marketplace is China placing its major city of Shanghai in a major Covid rolling lockdown. Reports said Tesla has halted production in its factory at Shanghai. Crude oil prices dropped in part on the news.

The key outside markets see Nymex crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $109.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher early today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.51%–the highest in almost three years. Parts of the yield curve have now inverted, which is also suggesting weakening U.S. economic growth.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the advance economic indicators report and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the February high of 4,578.50 and then at 4,600.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,514.00 and then at 4,450.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 14,840.50 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 14,572.50 and then at 14,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract low overnight. Bears are in solid command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 149 even and then at 150 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 146 10/32 and then at 146 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 122.00.0 and then at 122.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 120.30.5 and then at 120.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1104 and then at 1.1172. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0977 and then at 1.0936. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are sharply lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $110.00 and then at the overnight high of $112.93. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $107.50 and then at $105.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, pressured in part by sharp losses in crude oil. Corn and soybean market bulls are in firm overall technical control at elevated prices, while wheat futures are neutral. The all-important USDA planting intentions report on Thursday is coming into clearer focus for grain traders. That’s one of the most important USDA reports of the year for the grain markets.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, March 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. There have been no major developments on the Russia-Ukraine war front, from a markets perspective. That has somewhat lessened trader and investor risk aversion, but by no means can risk appetite in the marketplace be termed robust at present. There may be some keener risk aversion creep into markets on Friday, heading into the weekend.

Reports say President Biden and the European Commission president will announce a pact to boost Europe’s supply of liquefied natural gas by the end of the year as the EU tries to curb its reliance on Russian energy. The agreement follows Biden’s meetings with NATO, the Group of Seven and EU leaders to ramp up pressure on Putin. Biden Thursday called for Russia’s removal from the G-20 group of major economies.

Many market watchers are wondering what Russian President Putin will do next. His blunders, including the failed attempt at a swift victory in Ukraine and his vulnerable military that appears to be aging and under-funded, are front and center on the world stage. So is the slaughter of innocent Ukrainian citizens, young and old. Most believe a humiliated Putin is now more dangerous than ever. Indeed, this crisis is far from its end and may get worse before it gets better. However, the price spikes seen in gold and crude oil a few weeks ago that have not been retested do suggest that from a markets perspective, trader and investor anxiety a few weeks ago hit a peak as worst-case scenarios were quickly factored into markets. That’s an important assumption for traders and investors to digest.

The key outside markets see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $111.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker early today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.37%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes pending home sales and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,550.00 and then at the February high of 4,578.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,415.00 and then at 4,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly firmer and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,000.00 and then at the February high of 15,261.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,500.00 and then at this week’s low of 14,183.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 150 even and then at 151 even. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 147 21/32 and then at 147 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 123.12.0 and then at 123.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 122.12.0 and then at 122.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1104 and then at last week’s high of 1.1172. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0994 and then at last week’s low of 1.0936. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $112.79 and then at $115.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $109.14 and then at $107.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were lower again in early U.S. pre-market trading. Trading remains choppy and sideways. Corn and soybean market bulls are in firm overall technical control at elevated prices, while wheat futures are neutral. The all-important USDA planting intentions report on March 31 is coming into view for grain traders.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, March 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The Russia-Ukraine war and its widespread market implications continues on the front burner. President Biden Thursday meets with NATO and EU leaders to discuss the war. The two-day summit will be held at NATO headquarters in Brussels.

There are some reports surfacing that Russian President Putin’s war is producing cracks in the Kremlin. The reports said the Russian central bank chief quit and has left the country, while another official wanted to resign but Putin would not allow it.

Reports said Russia’s stock market has partially reopened and was trading higher, but foreigners have been banned from selling.

The other element impacting the marketplace is inflation, which has intensified because of the war. Global bond market yields have been rising sharply recently, with U.S. Treasury yields nearing three-year highs. The U.S. 2-year and 10-year yield curve is very close to inverting, which would begin to suggest a U.S. economic recession.

The key outside markets see Nymex crude oil prices near steady and trading around $115.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is firmer today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.37%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, durable goods orders, the U.S. flash manufacturing and services PMIs, and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,514.00 and then at 4,550.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,415.00 and then at 4,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 14,690.75 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,183.75 and then at 14,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 150 even and then at 151 even. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 147 21/32 and then at 147 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 123.10.0 and then at 123.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 122.12.0 and then at 122.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1104 and then at last week’s high of 1.1172. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0994 and then at last week’s low of 1.0936. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $116.64 and then at $118.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $110.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of $108.38. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean market bulls remain in firm overall technical control at elevated prices, while wheat futures are slightly bullish. Geopolitics remains the main driver of the grains and that suggests volatility continuing to be elevated for at least the near term. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. The all-important USDA planting intentions report on March 31 is coming into view for grain traders.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff