Daily Morning Report

Friday, March 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. There have been no major developments on the Russia-Ukraine war front, from a markets perspective. That has somewhat lessened trader and investor risk aversion, but by no means can risk appetite in the marketplace be termed robust at present. There may be some keener risk aversion creep into markets on Friday, heading into the weekend.

Reports say President Biden and the European Commission president will announce a pact to boost Europe’s supply of liquefied natural gas by the end of the year as the EU tries to curb its reliance on Russian energy. The agreement follows Biden’s meetings with NATO, the Group of Seven and EU leaders to ramp up pressure on Putin. Biden Thursday called for Russia’s removal from the G-20 group of major economies.

Many market watchers are wondering what Russian President Putin will do next. His blunders, including the failed attempt at a swift victory in Ukraine and his vulnerable military that appears to be aging and under-funded, are front and center on the world stage. So is the slaughter of innocent Ukrainian citizens, young and old. Most believe a humiliated Putin is now more dangerous than ever. Indeed, this crisis is far from its end and may get worse before it gets better. However, the price spikes seen in gold and crude oil a few weeks ago that have not been retested do suggest that from a markets perspective, trader and investor anxiety a few weeks ago hit a peak as worst-case scenarios were quickly factored into markets. That’s an important assumption for traders and investors to digest.

The key outside markets see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $111.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker early today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.37%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes pending home sales and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,550.00 and then at the February high of 4,578.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,415.00 and then at 4,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly firmer and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,000.00 and then at the February high of 15,261.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,500.00 and then at this week’s low of 14,183.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 150 even and then at 151 even. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 147 21/32 and then at 147 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 123.12.0 and then at 123.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 122.12.0 and then at 122.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1104 and then at last week’s high of 1.1172. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0994 and then at last week’s low of 1.0936. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $112.79 and then at $115.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $109.14 and then at $107.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were lower again in early U.S. pre-market trading. Trading remains choppy and sideways. Corn and soybean market bulls are in firm overall technical control at elevated prices, while wheat futures are neutral. The all-important USDA planting intentions report on March 31 is coming into view for grain traders.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, March 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The Russia-Ukraine war and its widespread market implications continues on the front burner. President Biden Thursday meets with NATO and EU leaders to discuss the war. The two-day summit will be held at NATO headquarters in Brussels.

There are some reports surfacing that Russian President Putin’s war is producing cracks in the Kremlin. The reports said the Russian central bank chief quit and has left the country, while another official wanted to resign but Putin would not allow it.

Reports said Russia’s stock market has partially reopened and was trading higher, but foreigners have been banned from selling.

The other element impacting the marketplace is inflation, which has intensified because of the war. Global bond market yields have been rising sharply recently, with U.S. Treasury yields nearing three-year highs. The U.S. 2-year and 10-year yield curve is very close to inverting, which would begin to suggest a U.S. economic recession.

The key outside markets see Nymex crude oil prices near steady and trading around $115.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is firmer today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.37%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, durable goods orders, the U.S. flash manufacturing and services PMIs, and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,514.00 and then at 4,550.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,415.00 and then at 4,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 14,690.75 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,183.75 and then at 14,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 150 even and then at 151 even. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 147 21/32 and then at 147 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 123.10.0 and then at 123.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 122.12.0 and then at 122.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1104 and then at last week’s high of 1.1172. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0994 and then at last week’s low of 1.0936. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $116.64 and then at $118.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $110.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of $108.38. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean market bulls remain in firm overall technical control at elevated prices, while wheat futures are slightly bullish. Geopolitics remains the main driver of the grains and that suggests volatility continuing to be elevated for at least the near term. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. The all-important USDA planting intentions report on March 31 is coming into view for grain traders.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, March 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mostly higher overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. The Russia-Ukraine war continues but from a markets perspective not much has changed recently. President Biden Thursday meets with NATO and EU leaders to discuss Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The two-day summit will be held at NATO headquarters in Brussels. Sanctions continue to bite Russia’s economy and its ability to make war. Bloomberg reports that “for decades, global finance firms eagerly catered to Russian companies, billionaires and the government. In perhaps the harshest and fastest exclusion in living memory of a major industrialized economy, the past few weeks have been a frantic dash to understand and implement sanctions on Russia that are being continually updated by the U.S., U.K. and the EU.”

The other element very near the front burner of the marketplace is inflation worries. Global bond market yields have been rising sharply, with U.S. Treasury yields nearing three-year highs. The U.S. 2-year and 10-year yield curve is very close to inverting, which would begin to suggest a U.S. economic recession is coming.

The key outside markets see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $111.50 a barrel. Oil prices are rising sharply again on ideas the European Union is moving closer to banning oil imports from Russia. The U.S. dollar index is firmer today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.375%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, new residential sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,514.00 and then at 4,550.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,415.00 and then at 4,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are down a bit in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 14,690.75 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,500.00 and then at this week’s low of 14,183.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady after hitting contract low overnight. Bears are in solid command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 149 even and then at 150 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 147 21/32 and then at 147 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer and did hit a contract low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 123.11.5 and then at 123.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 122.12.0 and then at 122.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1104 and then at last week’s high of 1.1172. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0994 and then at last week’s low of 1.0936. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $113.35 and then at $115.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $110.00 and then at the overnight low of $108.38. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls are having a good week. Corn and soybean market bulls remain in firm overall technical control and wheat futures are slightly bullish. Geopolitics remains the main driver of the grains and that suggests volatility continuing to be elevated for at least the near term. The all-important USDA planting intentions report on March 31 is coming into view for grain traders.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, March 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mostly higher overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The Russia-Ukraine war situation has not changed much recently, so risk aversion in the marketplace remains elevated. President Biden Thursday meets with NATO and EU leaders to discuss Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The two-day summit will be held at NATO headquarters in Brussels. 

The U.S. Treasury markets are under more selling pressure Tuesday, following more hawkish rhetoric coming from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Monday. The Fed chief said he is prepared to raise the key U.S. interest rate by 0.5% if conditions warrant. The Fed did a 0.25% rate hike last week. Powell also implied that the fight to keep inflation under control is important enough to risk slowing down U.S. economic growth in that effort.

The key outside markets see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $111.00 a barrel. Oil prices are rising sharply again on ideas the European Union is moving closer to banning oil imports from Russia. The U.S. dollar index is firmer today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.359%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the Johnson Redbook and chain store sales index, and the Richmond Fed business survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,500.00 and then at 4,550.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,415.00 and then at 4,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 14,500.00 and then at 14,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,183.75 and then at 14,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit another contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 150 3/32 and then at 151 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 148 26/32 and then at 148 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 123.11.5 and then at 123.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 122.26.0 and then at 122.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1104 and then at last week’s high of 1.1172. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0994 and then at last week’s low of 1.0936. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $115.01 and then at $117.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $109.30 and then at $107.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were higher in early U.S. pre-market trading, with wheat leading the way. Corn and soybean market bulls remain in firm overall technical control and wheat futures are now neutral. Geopolitics remains the main driver of the grains and that suggests volatility continuing to be elevated for at least the near term. The all-important USDA planting intentions report on March 31 is coming into view for grain traders.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff