Daily Morning Report

Friday, March 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were lower overnight and the U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Tensions are very high to end the trading week, on overnight news that Russian troops in Ukraine took over the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, which was on fire just before the Russians seized the plant. Said one analyst: “Nobody will want to be short risk going into this weekend.”

Bloomberg in a daily email dispatch reports: “Hedge funds are betting on an extended rally in crude which at least one says could send prices to $200 a barrel. In Europe, natural gas prices remain extremely volatile as authorities prepare for severe economic consequences should Russia cut off supplies.”

Gold and silver markets remain supported by safe-haven demand amid arguably the biggest geopolitical crisis in 30 years. A Dow Jones Newswire headline today reads, “Gold ETFs flooded with money as investors seek safety.” Gold has once again proven all of its safe-haven naysayers wrong. When the going gets really tough, the yellow metal still shines the brightest.

Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s February U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen coming in at up 440,000 after a gain of 467,000 in January. This report will likely be less markets-sensitive as Fed Chairman Powell this week signaled the Fed will do a 0.25% interest rate increase at its FOMC meeting this month.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $110.00 a barrel after hitting a 13.5-year high of $116.57 on Thursday. The U.S. dollar index is higher again today and hit a 21-month high. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 1.778%. 

There is no other U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart and the bears are in firm technical control. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,366.25 and then at this week’s high of 4,410.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,252.00 and then at 4,219.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in firm control amid a price downtrend in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 14,085.00 and then at this week’s high of 14,389.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,708.00 and then at 13,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 159 22/32 and then at 160 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 156 20/32 and then at this week’s low of 154 31/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 128.27.5 and then at this week’s high of 128.31.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 127.12.5 and then at 127.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are solidly lower and hit a nearly two-year low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1105 and then at Thursday’s high of 1.1160. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at 1.0950. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $112.84 and then at $114.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $107.27 and then at $105.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mostly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading, with wheat leading the way and hitting a 14-year high. Grain market bulls are still very strong, but there are warning signs that, from a time perspective, the markets are close to topping out. Extreme price moves at higher levels many times produce “blow off tops.” The Russia-Ukraine war will keep grain futures prices elevated. Look for continued high daily price volatility in the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, March 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed overnight and the U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion remains elevated amid the Russia-Ukraine war that has intensified. Crude oil and grain prices are soaring and that’s also stoking inflation fears. In a stunning inflation report coming from the Euro zone, its January producer price index rose 30.6%, year-on-year, mostly due to rising energy prices.

Bloomberg in an email dispatch Thursday morning reported, “With traders continuing to avoid Russian oil supplies over sanctions uncertainty, OPEC-plus not hiking their scheduled quota increase Wednesday and Iran talks still not resolved, traders are paying the biggest premium in more than two years to bet on higher prices. Aluminum, nickel, zinc and wheat all continue to rise, putting the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index on course for its biggest weekly gain since 1960.”

Fed Chairman Powell speaks again to U.S. lawmakers Thursday, after he on Wednesday signaled a 0.25% interest rate increase is coming in a couple weeks.

On Friday comes the February U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen coming in at up 440,000 after a gain of 467,000 in January.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices posting more strong gains and trading around $114.00 a barrel after hitting an 13.5-year high of $116.57 overnight. The U.S. dollar index is higher again today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 1.854%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, revised productivity and costs, the U.S. services PMI, the ISM report on business services, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, monthly chain store sales and the global services PMI.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart and the bears are in firm technical control. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,391.00 and then at 4,450.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,252.00 and then at 4,219.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in firm control amid a price downtrend in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 14,324.25 and then at 14,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,708.00 and then at 13,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading amid this week’s higher volatility. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 156 30/32 and then at 158 even. Shorter-term support lies at Wednesday’s low of 155 19/32 and then at this week’s low of 154 31/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 127.20.5 and then at 128.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Wednesday’s low of 127.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 126.23.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1200 and then at Tuesday’s high of 1.1270. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1098 and then at 1.1050. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are a higher and hit an 13.5-year high of $116.57 in overnight U.S. trading. Bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $116.57 and then at $118.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $110.00 and then at $107.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mostly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading, with wheat leading the way and hitting a multi-year high. Grain market bulls are still strong, but there are warning signs that, from a time perspective, the markets are close to topping out. Extreme price moves at higher levels many times produce “blow off tops.” The Russia-Ukraine war will keep grain futures prices elevated. Look for continued high daily price volatility in the near term. On tap Thursday is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, March 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed to firmer overnight and the U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The week-old Russian invasion of Ukraine continues and no off ramp for the conflict is in sight. In fact, some military experts are saying the Russia-Ukraine war could last 10 years.

President Biden’s state-of-the-union address Tuesday night saw no surprises, as he discussed the Russia-Ukraine war, problematic price inflation and other domestic matters.

In overnight news, Eurozone inflation hit a record high as the bloc’s February consumer price index rose at a 5.8% rate, year-on-year, following a 5.1% rise in January.

The marketplace awaits Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony today to a U.S. House panel. Many market watchers think the geopolitical crisis will alter the timing and degree of the Fed’s expected interest rate increases this year. Powell could shed more light on that notion in his remarks today.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices posting strong gains and trading around $108.50 a barrel and hitting an 8.5-year high of $111.50 overnight. An important OPEC meeting is occurring today, which is expected to see the cartel slightly raise its collective crude oil production. The U.S. dollar index is higher again today and hit a 1.5-year high. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 1.732%. T-Note yields have been falling the past week, on flight-to-quality buying of U.S. debt.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the Federal Reserve’s beige book and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending lower on the daily bar chart and the bears are in firm technical control. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,390.00 and then at 4,450.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,252.00 and then at 4,219.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in firm control amid a price downtrend in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 14,324.25 and then at 14,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,708.00 and then at 13,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 159 5/32 and then at this week’s high of 159 22/32. Shorter-term support lies at 158 even and then at 157 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 128.16.0 and then at the overnight high of 128.29.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at 128.00.0 and then at 127.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower and hit a 22-month low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1200 and then at Tuesday’s high of 1.1270. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1100 and then at 1.1050. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are a sharply higher and hit an 8.5-year high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $111.50 and then at $112.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $105.35 and then at $100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mostly lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, on corrective pullbacks from recent very strong gains that pushed most futures to for-the-move and multi-year highs. There are still worries the global commodity supply chain, including and especially grains, will be seriously disrupted by the Russia-Ukraine war. That will keep grain futures prices elevated. Look for continued high daily price volatility in the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, March 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed to lower overnight and the U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Still front and center for the marketplace is the Russia-Ukraine war and its implications on world commerce. Reports say Russian has stepped up its military campaign against Ukraine Tuesday, including shelling civilian targets. Brent crude oil prices reached $100 a barrel overnight, with Nymex crude oil futures not far behind. Grain futures prices have soared to multi-year highs.

The West’s very heavy sanctions have crippled Russia’s economy. Add that to the unexpectedly strong resistance being put up by the Ukrainian military to its Russian aggressors and Russian President Putin has been put on thin ice. Some pundits are calling him “unhinged” based upon his recent comments and television appearances. If the demoralized Russian public becomes seriously disenchanted with Putin, the marketplace wonders what he will do. Will his generals attempt a coup? Will Putin attack Western countries? In a desperate move to save his hide or to safe face, would Putin resort to using his nuclear missiles? These are questions that will keep markets on edge for likely some time to come.

U.S. President Biden will address the Russian situation Tuesday evening in his annual state of the union address.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices posting sharp gains and trading around $99.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher again today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 1.843%. U.S. Treasuries are seeing safe-haven buying interest.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store sales indexes, the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index, the ISM report on business manufacturing, the global manufacturing PMI, construction spending, and domestic auto industry sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart and the bears are in firm technical control. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,390.00 and then at 4,450.00. Support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 4,252.00 and then at 4,219.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in firm control amid a price downtrend in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 14,324.25 and then at 14,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 13,708.00 and then at 13,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are sharply higher and hit a two-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 159 1/32 and then at 160 even. Shorter-term support lies at 158 even and then at 157 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are sharply higher and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 128.20.0 and then at 129.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 128.10.0 and then at 128.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.1290 and then at 1.1350. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1200 and then at the February low of 1.1147. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are a sharply higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the February high of $100.54 and then at $101.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $97.50 and then at $95.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are again posting strong gains in early U.S. pre-market trading and hit hit for-the-move and multi-year highs, on worries the global commodity supply chain will be seriously disrupted by the Russia-Ukraine war and the heavy sanctions slapped on Russia by the West. Look for continued high daily price volatility in the near term. The extreme price moves recently are suggestive of the final phase of a major bull market run in the grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff