Daily Morning Report

Monday, February 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Marketplace anxiety is very high to start the trading week, following the weekend news that Russian President Putin put is military on high nuclear alert after the U.S. and Europe slapped severe sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, including the West’s removal of various Russian banks from the important SWIFT financial system. This could further disrupt the flow of commodity trade worldwide. Both SocGen SA and Credit Suisse AG have stopped financing commodities trading from Russia. Russian and Ukrainian officials are meeting today for talks aimed at ending the four-day-old war. Ukrainian President Zelensky said he did not believe much would come out of the meeting.

Global stocks markets were lower overnight and the U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward sharply lower openings when the New York day session begins. A Barrons headline Monday reads, “Tougher sanctions spark Russian market mayhem; it’s threatening to spread.”

Gold prices are sharply higher on safe-haven demand. The Bank of Russia said it will start buying gold on the domestic precious metals market. Russia announced an end to its two-year gold-buying hiatus, as the Russian ruble sank to a record low versus the U.S. dollar. Russia’s central bank had to raise its main interest rate to 20%, from 9.5%. Russia is the fifth-largest sovereign gold owner and gold accounts for 20% of world reserves.

The marketplace wonders what Putin will do next. It appears Ukraine’s military is putting up stiffer resistance than Putin thought. And the strong economic sanctions from the West are quickly crippling the Russian economy. Russian cyberattacks on the West seem likely soon. With Putin having seemingly painted himself into a corner, the world is also now thinking about the unthinkable: a nuclear exchange between the Russia and the U.S.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices posting sharp gains and trading around $96.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 1.922%. U.S. Treasuries are also seeing safe-haven buying interest.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes advance economic indicators, the Chicago ISM business survey, and the Texas manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly down in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart and the bears are in firm technical control. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Friday’s high of 4,376.00 and then at 4,400.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,252.00 and then at Friday’s low of 4,219.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in firm control amid a price downtrend in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last Friday’s high of 14,197.75 and then at 14,350.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,708.00 and then at 13,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading but well down from the overnight high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 156 even and then at the overnight high of 156 28/32. Shorter-term support lies at 154 even and then at last week’s low of 153 10/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher but well down from the overnight high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the 127.00.0 and then at the overnight high of 127.12.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at 126.20.0 and then at last week’s low of 126.11.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1276 and then at 1.1300. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1200 and then at last week’s low of 1.1147. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are a solidly higher but well off the overnight high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $99.10 and then at last week’s high of $100.54. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $94.82 and then at $92.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are posting strong gains in early U.S. pre-market trading, on worries the global commodity supply chain will be seriously disrupted by the Russia-Ukraine war and the sanctions slapped on Russia by the West. Look for continued high daily price volatility in the near term. On tap today is the weekly USDA grain export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, February 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

The Russia-Ukraine war continues on the front burner of the marketplace to end the trading week. There is still risk aversion in the marketplace. However, it can be argued that marketplace anxiety is not as high as it was early Thursday. U.S. and western country sanctions against Russia are being deemed not as severe as expected, including no sanctions on Russian crude oil or natural gas industries. Also, President Biden reiterated Thursday that the U.S. has no plans to get the world’s most powerful military involved in the Russia-Ukraine war. In other words, the major economies of the world will stand by and watch the war unfold, with the likely outcome a complete Russian takeover of Ukraine. As the marketplace continues to digest this matter, a main worry remains a mistake made by either Russia or NATO that would suck the West into the conflagration.

Some of the markets that had initial extreme price movements have retraced much of those price moves, including U.S. stock indexes, gold, grains and U.S. Treasuries. Gold is the most notable example. The safe-haven metal rallied to a 1.5-year high of $1,976.50 early Thursday, but has dropped sharply since then and is presently trading just above $1,900.00. Some gold traders fear that Russian President Putin may have to sell some or much of his vast gold reserves to support the depreciating Russian currency, the ruble. Russia’s stock market also tanked Thursday, at one point losing half its value, before rebounding. Bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies have stabilized Friday, after suffering initial losses at the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Still, commodity market traders realize Russia and Ukraine are major producers and world suppliers of many major raw commodities, including metals and grains. A Dow Jones Newswires headline this morning reads, “Ukraine war means another supply shock to global economy—the last thing it needs.” Look for many raw commodity prices to remain elevated, even if their spike highs Thursday may not be revisited.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices posting mild losses and trading around $92.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is a bit higher after hitting a 1.5-year high Thursday. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 1.95%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, durable goods orders, the pending home sales index, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are down in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart and the bears are in firm technical control. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,300.00 and then at 4,345.50. Support for active traders is seen at 4,200.00 and then at 4,150.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears are in firm control amid a price downtrend in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 14,157.50 and then at 13,300.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,500.00 and then at 13,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 153 7/32 and then at 154 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 152 2/32 and then at 151 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.21.5 and then at 127.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 126.03.0 and then at 126.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1266 and then at 1.1300. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1200 and then at this week’s low of 1.1147. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage but may now be tired and need to pause. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $95.64 and then at $97.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $90.00 and then at this week’s low of $89.06. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are posting sharp losses in early U.S. pre-market trading, on steep downside corrections the spike highs seen on Thursday. It’s going to be very tough for the bulls to overcome technical resistance at those spike highs, and in fact those spike highs may be market tops that will remain for a while. Still, keen uncertainty regarding the effects on global grain trade from the Russia-Ukraine conflict will keep grain futures prices elevated. Look for continued higher daily price volatility in the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, February 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Russia has initiated a full-blown invasion of Ukraine Thursday, including bombing and missile strikes on key infrastructure and defense installations all over Ukraine. Russian President Putin claimed the attack is an effort to demilitarize Ukraine. Global stock markets sunk sharply on the news, including the U.S. stock indexes. Many major commodity markets saw their prices soar. Russia is a major raw commodity exporter, and Russia and Ukraine are major grain exporters. Nymex and Brent crude oil futures pushed above $100.00 a barrel, with Nymex oil hitting $100.54 a barrel as of this writing. Gold rallied to a 1.5-year high and is around $60 an ounce higher on the day, on safe-haven demand. Grain futures rocketed sharply higher and set multi-year highs in some markets. The U.S. dollar index appreciated sharply and U.S. Treasury yields dropped dramatically. Bitcoin, seen by some as a safe-haven asset, once again sold off sharply when the going in the marketplace gets really tough.

A news headline from Barrons today read, “Russia has actually invaded Ukraine; markets are not ready for that fallout.” The extreme price moves seen in many markets today bear out that notion.

So far, the West and NATO nations have not participated in defending Ukraine with their militaries. However, in the fog of war major mistakes can be made by armies and their leaders. Much of the world is hoping the West and NATO do not get sucked into this conflagration.

All of the above developments make the other worry in the marketplace even greater: rising inflation. The keen marketplace uncertainty and anxiety may well impact the timing of the Federal Reserve’s plans to raise U.S. interest rates. Falling U.S. Treasury yields and potential slowing global economic growth due to the Russia-Ukraine war, and sharply rising energy prices, risk the Fed and other central banks pushing their economies into recession if they raise interest rates too aggressively. A Dow Jones Newswires news headline Thursday morning read, “Russian invasion scrambles prospects for global economy.”

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices posting big gains and trading around $99.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is sharply higher and hit a three-week high today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 1.875%, well down from over 2.0% seen earlier this month.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Chicago Fed national activity index, the second estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product, new residential sales, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are sharply down and hit a 10-month low in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart and the bears are in firm technical control. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,200.00 and then at the overnight high of 4,224.50. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,101.75 and then at 4,075.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are sharply down and hit a 10-month low in early U.S. trading. Bears are in firm control amid a price downtrend in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,517.75 and then at 13,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,025.75 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are sharply up in early U.S. trading, on flight-to-quality buying. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage but the bulls have some momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 154 26/32 and then at 155 even. Shorter-term support lies at 153 even and then at the overnight low of 152 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading, on flight-to-quality buying. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 127.12.5 and then at 127.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 127.00.0 and then at 126.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are sharply down in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained fresh power today. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1300 and then at the overnight high of 1.1345. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1196 and then at the January low of 1.1168. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are strongly up and hit a 7.5-year high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $100.54 and then at $102.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $96.00 and then at $95.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are posting very strong gains in early U.S. pre-market trading, on the Russia-Ukraine news. Soybeans and wheat futures hit multi-year highs. Keen uncertainty regarding the effects on global grain trade from the Russia-Ukraine conflict is boosting grains. Russia and Ukraine are major global grain producers. Grain market bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. However, corn, soybeans and wheat prices are all in historically “thin air.” Look for high daily price volatility in the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, February 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The S&P 500 stock index is being termed in “correction” territory, meaning a 10% decline from its recent record high.

On the front burner of the marketplace remains the Russian incursion into Ukraine. The U.S. and other nations have slapped sanctions on Russia, but it appears the West has no intention of military action against Russia. That has somewhat assuaged the marketplace, for now. It’s still a dicey situation, as a military mistake by either side could significantly escalate the conflict. The major question on traders’ and investors’ minds is whether the uncertainty/anxiety factor has peaked, from a markets perspective. Remember that markets many times overreact to major geopolitical events in the early stages of those events. Traders tend to factor into market prices a worst-case scenario, only to see that scenario typically not occur. Still, in this particular geopolitical situation another major “shoe could drop,” such as a full-blown Russia invasion of Ukraine, to further destabilize markets.

In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index for January came in at up 0.3% from December and up 5.1%, year-on-year. Those numbers were right in line with market expectations.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $91.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is a bit weaker early today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 1.977%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, and the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store sales indexes.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart and the bears are in technical control. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of 4,391.25 and then at 4,425.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,300.00 and then at 4,275.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears are in control amid a price downtrend in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 14,157.50 and then at 14,300.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,706.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 13,580.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 153 12/32 and then at 154 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 152 15/32 and then at 152 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.19.5 and then at 126.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 126.05.0 and then at 126.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1437 and then at 1.1480. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.1325 and then at 1.1300. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $92.37 and then at $94.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of $89.06 and then at last week’s low of $87.46. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain markets this week are seeing price gains on the uncertainty regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Russia and Ukraine are major global grain producers. Grain market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. However, corn, soybeans and wheat prices are all in historically “thin air.”

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff