Daily Morning Report

Thursday, February 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion is keener Thursday on reports that shots have been fired along the Ukraine-Russia border. Reports said Ukrainian troops fired on Russian-backed rebels. Also, the U.S. says there is no evidence Russia has pulled its troops away from the border, and in fact the U.S. says Russia has added 7,000 more troops.

Gold prices surged to an eight-month high overnight on safe-haven demand amid the geopolitical crisis.

The marketplace took some note of the FOMC minutes that were released Wednesday afternoon. The U.S. stocks market was somewhat assuaged as the minutes did not seem as hawkish as some market watchers expected. However, others said the minutes contained no surprises.

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 2.014%. The key outside markets today see crude oil prices solidly lower and trading around $91.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is a bit firmer today.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, and new residential construction. Several Federal Reserve officials are also scheduled to give speeches today. 

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,484.50 and then at 4,525.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,400.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,354.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 14,668.50 and then at 14,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 14,233.25 and then at this week’s low of 14,031.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are up in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low on Wednesday. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 152 9/32 and then at 153 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 150 29/32 and then at the contract low of 150 12/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.15.5 and then at this week’s high of 126.25.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 125.25.0 and then at the contract low of 125.17.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1402 and then at 1.1450. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1328 and then at this week’s low of 1.1287. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the strong overall near-term technical advantage amid a 10-week-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $93.32 and then at $95.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $90.00 and then at $89.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The keener inflation worries are overall bullish for the grain markets, but the keener risk aversion this week is mostly bearish.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, February 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly weaker openings when the New York day session begins. An apparent slight de-escalation of the Russia-Ukraine border stand-off is somewhat lifting trader and investor risk sentiment at mid-week. Russia today said it has pulled back more if its troops from the Ukraine border. However, that situation is still very unpredictable and the geopolitical crisis is far from abating. President Biden on Tuesday said Russia still could invade Ukraine.

In other overnight news, higher-than-expected inflation in the U.K. has prompted talks of even more aggressive interest rate increases from the Bank of England. The U.K.’s January CPI rose by 5.5% year-on-year, above expectations of up 5.4%. The inflation report saw its steepest rise since March of 1992.

Meantime, China’s consumer price index for January came in at up 9.1%, year-on-year.

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 2.035%. The key outside markets today see crude oil prices firmer and trading around $92.85 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is lower today. 

It’s a very busy day for U.S. economic data releases Wednesday, including retail sales, the MBA mortgage applications survey, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing market index, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, and the FOMC meeting minutes. The minutes may not provide much markets reaction as it appears the marketplace may have dialed in an aggressive Federal Reserve monetary-policy-tightening pace in the coming months.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,500.00 and then at 4,525.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,400.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,354.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 14,750.00 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 14,233.25 and then at this week’s low of 14,031.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 152 7/32 and then at 153 even. Shorter-term support lies at the low of 150 18/32 and then at 150 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 126.06.5 and then at 126.12.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 125.17.5 and then at 125.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1402 and then at 1.1450. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1351 and then at Tuesday’s low of 1.1310. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a 10-week-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $95.00 and then at this week’s high of $95.82. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $91.63 and then at $90.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading, on a corrective bounce from Tuesday’s losses. Grain market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The keener inflation worries are overall bullish for the grain markets.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, February 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly up and Asian shares mostly down. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite has up-ticked a bit Tuesday. The stock indexes have gotten a boost on news reports that some Russian troops are backing away from the Ukrainian border. However, the Ukrainian president on Monday posted on FaceBook that Russia will invade his country on Wednesday. The upshot of the recent news headlines is that the situation is still very unpredictable and the geopolitical crisis is far from abating.

The U.S. data point of the day Tuesday is the latest U.S. inflation report, the producer price index for January, which is seen coming in hot, at up 0.5% from December.

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 2.035%. The key outside markets today see crude oil prices sharply down and trading around $92.15 a barrel after hitting a 7.5-year high Monday. The U.S. dollar index is lower early today. 

Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the Empire State manufacturing survey, Treasury international capital data, and the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store sales indexes.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,500.00 and then at 4,525.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,400.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,354.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 14,750.00 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 14,233.25 and then at this week’s low of 14,031.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 152 7/32 and then at 153 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 150 25/32 and then at 150 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and near last week’s contract low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.06.5 and then at 126.12.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 125.17.5 and then at 125.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1376 and then at 1.1400. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1287 and then at 1.1250. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a 7.5-year high of $95.82 Monday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a 10-week-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $95.00 and then at $95.82. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $91.00 and then at $90.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, pressured by a general sell off in the raw commodity sector Tuesday, led by sharp losses in crude oil. Grain market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The keener inflation worries are overall bullish for the grain markets.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, February 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are showing keener risk aversion to start the trading week, as the U.S. says Russia could invade Ukraine any day now. The situation appears to be deteriorating by the day. The uncertainty on the matter is likely to continue to run high, as the U.S. response to a Russian invasion of Ukraine is a wild card—running the gamut of the U.S. slapping more sanctions on Russia, to participating in a full-blown ground war in Europe.

Gold prices rose to a three-month high on safe-haven demand. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.927% after pushing above 2.0% late last week. Inflation worries are also buffeting the marketplace, led by surging energy prices.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices near steady and trading around $93.00 a barrel after hitting a seven-year high overnight. The U.S. dollar index is higher early today. 

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday. However, the pace picks up Tuesday, including the latest U.S. inflation report, the producer price index for January, which is seen coming in up 0.5% from December.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,428.00 and then at 4,600.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,354.00 and then at 4,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are down and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 14,298.00 and then at 14,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,000.00 and then at the January low of 13,706.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low last week. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 153 15/32 and then at 154 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 152 5/32 and then at 151 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.25.5 and then at 127.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 126.08.0 and then at 126.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1376 and then at 1.1400. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1300 and then at 1.1250. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a seven-year high of $94.94 overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a 10-week-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $94.94 and then at $96.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $91.00 and then at $90.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed to lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn is near steady, soybeans down and wheat up. Grain market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The keener inflation worries are bullish for the grain markets, but higher risk aversion is a negative. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff