Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, February 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk aversion elevated following a three-day U.S. markets-holiday weekend. Russia has sent troops into breakaway parts of Ukraine, with Russian President Putin calling it a “peace-keeping” mission. The U.S. and the West have slapped new sanctions on Russia, including Germany halting operations on a key oil pipeline into Russia. The U.S. says Russia now has 190,000 troops at the Ukrainian border. This matter is likely to remain on the front burner of the marketplace for some time to come. “Markets are on war footing” was a news headline from Barrons today.

Gold prices hit an eight-month high of $1,918.00 an ounce overnight, on safe-haven demand.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices sharply higher, hitting a 7.5-year high of $96.00 a barrel and presently trading around $94.25 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is a bit weaker early today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 1.925%. U.S. Treasury yields are falling early this week, on safe-haven demand for U.S. debt.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the monthly house price index, the quarterly house price index, the U.S. flash manufacturing and services purchasing managers indexes, the Richmond Fed business survey and the consumer confidence index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,391.25 and then at 4,425.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,321.00 and then at 4,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and hit an eight-month low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 14,157.50 and then at 14,300.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,706.00 and then at the overnight low of 13,580.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 153 16/32 and then at 154 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 152 17/32 and then at 152 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 126.25.5 and then at 127.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 126.07.0 and then at 126.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1402 and then at 1.1450. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.1287 and then at 1.1250. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher and hit a 7.5-year high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is  above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $96.00 and then at $97.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $92.50 and then at $90.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain markets are seeing price gains on the uncertainty regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Russia and Ukraine are major global wheat producers. Grain market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, February 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins, on corrective bounces after strong losses posted Thursday. Bears continue to have the near-term technical advantage in the U.S. stock indexes, which means the path of least resistance for prices is sideways to lower. Trader and investor risk aversion is still on the high side heading into the weekend. The U.S. insists Russia is poised to invade Ukraine and has the intelligence to back up that claim. Russia still insists it has no plans to invade its neighbor, despite massing 150,000 troops on Ukraine’s border. The major unknown to this geopolitical crisis is now the U.S. and NATO will respond to any Russian incursion into Ukraine. Much will likely depend on the degree to which any invasion occurs. Will any invasion be full-blown or will it be measured? Some are predicting the invasion is coming this weekend.

The other element on the front burner of the marketplace is inflation concerns. This week saw more hot inflation readings come from the U.S. and China. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.975%, which is down from levels over 2.0% seen earlier this week—likely due to “flight-to-quality” buying of U.S. Treasuries amid the geopolitical crisis.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices solidly lower and trading around $89.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is a bit firmer today.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes existing home sales and leading economic indicators.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,484.50 and then at 4,525.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,354.00 and then at 4,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 14,668.50 and then at 14,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,031.00 and then at 13,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low on Wednesday. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 152 17/32 and then at 153 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 151 20/32 and then at 150 29/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.22.0 and then at this week’s high of 126.25.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 126.07.0 and then at 126.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1402 and then at 1.1450. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1328 and then at this week’s low of 1.1287. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading late this week. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $91.87 and then at $93.36. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $89.03 and then at $88.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Not much new late this week. Grain market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Inflation worries are overall bullish for the grain markets, but the keener risk aversion this week is mostly bearish.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, February 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion is keener Thursday on reports that shots have been fired along the Ukraine-Russia border. Reports said Ukrainian troops fired on Russian-backed rebels. Also, the U.S. says there is no evidence Russia has pulled its troops away from the border, and in fact the U.S. says Russia has added 7,000 more troops.

Gold prices surged to an eight-month high overnight on safe-haven demand amid the geopolitical crisis.

The marketplace took some note of the FOMC minutes that were released Wednesday afternoon. The U.S. stocks market was somewhat assuaged as the minutes did not seem as hawkish as some market watchers expected. However, others said the minutes contained no surprises.

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 2.014%. The key outside markets today see crude oil prices solidly lower and trading around $91.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is a bit firmer today.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, and new residential construction. Several Federal Reserve officials are also scheduled to give speeches today. 

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,484.50 and then at 4,525.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,400.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,354.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 14,668.50 and then at 14,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 14,233.25 and then at this week’s low of 14,031.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are up in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low on Wednesday. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 152 9/32 and then at 153 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 150 29/32 and then at the contract low of 150 12/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.15.5 and then at this week’s high of 126.25.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 125.25.0 and then at the contract low of 125.17.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1402 and then at 1.1450. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1328 and then at this week’s low of 1.1287. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the strong overall near-term technical advantage amid a 10-week-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $93.32 and then at $95.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $90.00 and then at $89.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The keener inflation worries are overall bullish for the grain markets, but the keener risk aversion this week is mostly bearish.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, February 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly weaker openings when the New York day session begins. An apparent slight de-escalation of the Russia-Ukraine border stand-off is somewhat lifting trader and investor risk sentiment at mid-week. Russia today said it has pulled back more if its troops from the Ukraine border. However, that situation is still very unpredictable and the geopolitical crisis is far from abating. President Biden on Tuesday said Russia still could invade Ukraine.

In other overnight news, higher-than-expected inflation in the U.K. has prompted talks of even more aggressive interest rate increases from the Bank of England. The U.K.’s January CPI rose by 5.5% year-on-year, above expectations of up 5.4%. The inflation report saw its steepest rise since March of 1992.

Meantime, China’s consumer price index for January came in at up 9.1%, year-on-year.

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 2.035%. The key outside markets today see crude oil prices firmer and trading around $92.85 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is lower today. 

It’s a very busy day for U.S. economic data releases Wednesday, including retail sales, the MBA mortgage applications survey, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing market index, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, and the FOMC meeting minutes. The minutes may not provide much markets reaction as it appears the marketplace may have dialed in an aggressive Federal Reserve monetary-policy-tightening pace in the coming months.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,500.00 and then at 4,525.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,400.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,354.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 14,750.00 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 14,233.25 and then at this week’s low of 14,031.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 152 7/32 and then at 153 even. Shorter-term support lies at the low of 150 18/32 and then at 150 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 126.06.5 and then at 126.12.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 125.17.5 and then at 125.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1402 and then at 1.1450. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1351 and then at Tuesday’s low of 1.1310. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a 10-week-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $95.00 and then at this week’s high of $95.82. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $91.63 and then at $90.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading, on a corrective bounce from Tuesday’s losses. Grain market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The keener inflation worries are overall bullish for the grain markets.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff