Daily Morning Report

Friday, February 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are still digesting Thursday’s consumer price index report for January that came in hot at up 7.5%, year-on-year. That data fell into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy hawks, who want to see an aggressive pace of Federal Reserve interest rate increases this year. U.S. Treasury yields spiked higher after the report, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury note now yielding 2.003%, which is the highest in over two years.

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said he supports raising interest rates by a full percentage point by the start of July — including the first half-point hike since 2000 — in response to the hottest inflation in four decades. However, some other top Fed officials appear skeptical of a half-point hike, suggesting little need to start a hiking cycle with an aggressive move.

Goldman Sachs economists now expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates seven times this year to contain surging U.S. inflation, up from the five hikes they had seen earlier.

Meantime, the Kremlin is tightening its military vise on Ukraine, as thousands of Russian troops Thursday began 10 days of exercises in Belarus. Ukraine also warned of upcoming Russian naval drills so extensive that they would block shipping lanes. Aside from Belarus, satellite images revealed deployments of Russian military equipment and troops in Crimea and western Russia, according to the New York Times.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices higher and trading around $90.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher early today. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 2.005%–the highest in three years.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,498.00 and then at 4,550.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,438.50 and then at 4,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 14,712.00 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,362.75 and then at 14,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low on Thursday. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 152 12/32 and then at 153 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 151 15/32 and then at the contract low of 151 2/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low on Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 126.08.0 and then at 126.12.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 125.17.5 and then at 125.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1437 and then at this week’s high of 1.1503. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1378 and then at 1.1350. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a nine-week-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $91.74 and then at the February high of $93.17. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $88.41 and then at $87.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Soybean and corn market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls have gained the slight near-term chart advantage. The keener inflation worries are bullish for the grain markets.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, February 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. data point of the week will be Thursday morning’s consumer price index report for January, expected to come in at up 7.2%, year-on-year. That would be the hottest reading since 1982, if the CPI number meets market expectations.

In overnight news, the European Union is expecting Euro zone inflation to be up 3.5% in 2022 and up 1.7% in 2023. Given recent inflation data it appears EU economic officials are well behind the curve on recognizing the present pace of inflation.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices higher and trading around $90.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly up early today. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 1.948%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, real earnings and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are having a good week, so far. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the February high of 4,586.00 and then at 4,600.00. Support for active traders is seen at Wednesday’s low of 4,517.25 and then at this week’s low of 4,456.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,062.00 and then at the February high of 15,260.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 14,741.00 and then at this week’s low 14,467.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 153 30/32 and then at 154 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 152 27/32 and then at 152 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 127.01.0 and then at 127.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 126.13.5 and then at 126.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the January high of 1.1495 and then at 1.1550. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1404 and then at 1.1350. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a nine-week-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $91.68 and then at the February high of $93.17. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $88.41 and then at $87.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Soybean and corn market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls have gained the slight near-term chart advantage. Focus today is on USDA’s weekly export inspections report. Bloomberg recently interviewed a Goldman Sachs analyst, Jeff Currie, who pointed out major raw commodity futures markets are presently seeing the most “backwardation” since 1997—19 out of 28 markets. Backwardation means nearby futures trading at a premium to the deferred contracts. Usually, deferred futures are higher-priced, due to a “carry” premium. Backwardation suggests strong near-term demand for the commodity. “We’re out of everything, I don’t care if it’s oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminum, you name it we’re out of it,” said Currie. Futures curves are pricing in shortages, the likes of which not seen in 30 years, he added. Crude oil prices are leading the raw commodity price surge. Thus, crude will be a very important market for grain traders to monitor in the coming months.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, February 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Attention remains on the release of corporate earnings reports. While the earnings reports have been generally upbeat, traders and investors are still wary about rising inflation and the timing of the Federal Reserve’s tightening of its monetary policy. Rising U.S. Treasury yields this week suggest the marketplace is placing its bets on a more aggressive path of rate hikes from the Fed over the coming months.

The marketplace is still closely watching the Russia buildup of troops and weapons on the Ukrainian border. However, there are growing notions Russia may not invade Ukraine, amid a flurry of diplomacy from European nations.

The U.S. data point of the week will be Thursday morning’s consumer price index report for January, expected to come in at up 7.2%, year-on-year. That would be a hot reading if the CPI number meets market expectations.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices lower and trading around $88.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is lower early today. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 1.925%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, monthly wholesale trade and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the February high of 4,586.00 and then at 4,600.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,500.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,456.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,000.00 and then at the February high of 15,260.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 14,741.00 and then at this week’s low 14,467.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a contract low on Tuesday. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 153 30/32 and then at 154 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at 153 even and then at the contract low of 152 27/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and did hit another contract low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 127.01.0 and then at 127.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 126.13.5 and then at 126.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the January high of 1.1495 and then at 1.1550. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1404 and then at 1.1350. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a nine-week-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $90.00 and then at Tuesday’s high of $91.68. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $88.51 and then at $87.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Soybean and corn market bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading. Next up for data is today’s monthly USDA supply and demand report, with keen focus on USDA’s projection of the sizes of the South American corn and soybean crops. Look for a more volatile trading day in the grains today, following the 12:00 noon EDT release of the report.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, February 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Corporate earnings reports are in the spotlight at present. While earnings reports have been mostly upbeat, some have not, including a few big companies. That and inflation worries are making the U.S. stock indexes wobbly. More and more, it’s looking like the Federal Reserve will be aggressive and raise the Fed funds rate by 0.5% at its March meeting. Historically, rising interest rates and rising inflation have been bearish for stock markets.

The U.S. data point of the week will be Thursday morning’s consumer price index report for January, expected to come in at up 7.2%, year-on-year. That would be a hot reading if the CPI number meets market expectations.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices lower and trading around $89.65 a barrel after prices last Friday hit a seven-year high. The U.S. dollar index is firmer early today. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 1.932%, which is near a three-year high.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly chain store and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the NFIB small business index, the international trade report, and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,514.50 and then at 4,532.50. Support for active traders is seen at last Friday’s low of 4,438.50 and then at last week’s low of 4,395.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 14,806.25 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 14,353.25 and then at 14,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and hit another contract low overnight. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 153 18/32 and then at this week’s high of 153 30/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 152 27/32 and then at 152 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and hit a contract low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.29.5 and then at this week’s high of 127.01.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 126.15.5 and then at 126.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the January high of 1.1495 and then at 1.1550. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1404 and then at 1.1350. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the strong overall near-term technical advantage amid a nine-week-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $91.68 and then at last Friday’s seven-year high of $93.17. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $89.01 and then at $88.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, on some routine profit taking from recent gains. Soybean and corn market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading. Next up for data is Wednesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report, with keen focus on USDA’s projection of the sizes of the South American corn and soybean crops.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff