Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, February 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. China’s markets are closed all week for the Lunar New Year holiday. There may be a bit less risk aversion in the marketplace early this week, following the big gains in U.S. stock indexes on Monday. The Russia-Ukraine border situation remains tense, but there is some speculation the matter won’t devolve into war. Still of concern to traders and investors is the timing of Federal Reserve monetary policy. Fed watchers are debating whether upcoming U.S. interest rate increases may be too rapid and an over-reaction to inflation concerns.

In overnight news, Australia’s central bank said it is exiting its quantitative easing of its monetary policy, but added that does not imply upcoming interest rate increases.

The gold market has rebounded this week, following last week’s shellacking. Reports said $5 billion of new funds piled into the gold market in late January. Safe-haven demand and inflation-related hedge moves are supporting the yellow metal. Also, the shaky crypto currency markets are likely benefiting the gold bugs.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices near steady and trading around $88.00 a barrel. Traders will closely monitor an OPEC-plus meeting that begins Wednesday. The cartel is expected to raise its collective oil production level. The U.S. dollar index is lower again today. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 1.76%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly chain store and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business manufacturing, construction spending, the global manufacturing PMI, and domestic auto industry sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,514.50 and then at 4,550.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,350.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,395.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,000.00 and then at 15,150.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,700.00 and then at 14,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 156 19/32 and then at 157 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 155 9/32 and then at 154 15/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 128.16.0 and then at 128.22.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 127.29.0 and then at this week’s low of 127.21.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1300 and then at 1.1350. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1230 and then at 1.1200. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a two-month-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the January high of $88.84 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $86.00 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. The corn and soybean markets are still supported by very dry weather in South American growing regions. Corn and bean bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat prices have been choppy but the bulls still hold the overall near-term technical advantage. The “inflation trade” is working in favor of all the grain market bulls.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, January 31–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Markets in China and South Korea were closed for a holiday Monday. China’s markets are closed all week for the Lunar New Year holiday. Stock indexes are poised to close out January with solid losses on the month. Inflation worries are high and the Federal Reserve appears behind the curve on controlling it, Covid is still causing global economic problems two years into the pandemic, and Ukraine and Russia remain in a stare-down at their shared border. All of the above are making for reduced trader and investors risk appetite in the marketplace.

In overnight news, there was another drone attack against the United Arab Emirates, for the third week in a row. Iran-backed Houthi terrorists were likely responsible. Markets showed no major reactions to the news.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices firmer and trading around $87.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker today. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 1.789%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago ISM business survey and purchasing managers index, and the Texas manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily chart, to suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 4,375.00 and then at 4,350.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Resistance for active traders is seen at last week’s high of 4,446.25 and then at 4,475.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily chart to suggest a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 14,639.75 and then at 14,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,353.25 and then at 14,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending lower for two months. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 155 30/32 and then at 156 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at 155 even and then at 154 15/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 128.00.5 and then at 128.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 127.24.5 and then at 127.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1200 and then at 1.1253. Shorter-term support is seen at the January low of 1.1130 and then at 1.1100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a two-month-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the January high of $88.84 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $86.00 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. The corn and soybean markets are supported by very dry weather in South American growing regions. Corn and bean bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat prices have rebounded again amid worries about Russia invading Ukraine and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The “inflation trade” is working in favor of all the grain market bulls. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, January 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. It’s been a wobbly week for the global stock markets. Risk aversion has receded a bit heading into the weekend. The Russia-Ukraine tensions may be easing just a bit. Meantime, the marketplace has mostly digested this week’s hawkish FOMC meeting.

In other news, the International Monetary Fund reports China’s economic imbalances have worsened. The IMF forecast China’s GDP growth at 4.8% in 2022, down from its previous forecast of 5.7% growth.

Gold and silver prices are taking it on the chin this week. Gold is down almost $70 an ounce from the early week two-month high. Silver prices are down over $2.00 an ounce from a two-month high hit last week.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices firmer and trading around $87.20 a barrel after hitting a seven-year high on Thursday. The U.S. dollar index is higher and hit a 1.5-year high overnight. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 1.843% and near a two-year high. For perspective, the German 10-year bond (bund) is yielding -0.046% and the 10-year U.K. gilt is at 1.248%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, the employment cost index and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily chart, to suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Thursday’s low of 4,263.25 and then at this week’s low of 4,212.75. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Resistance for active traders is seen at the overnight high of 4,356.25 and then at 4,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily chart to suggest a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 14,183.50 and then at Thursday’s high of 14,409.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 13,844.50 and then at this week’s low of 13,706.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending lower for seven weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 155 15/32 and then at 155 27/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 154 20/32 and then at this week’s low of 153 29/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 127.22.0 and then at 127.28.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 127.06.5 and then at the contract low of 127.02.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower and hit a 22-month low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and have gained power this week. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1200 and then at Thursday’s high of 1.1253. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1130 and then at 1.1100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a seven-week-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $88.54 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $86.00 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. The corn and soybean markets are being supported by very dry weather in South American growing regions. Corn and bean bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat prices have faded again but the bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The “inflation trade” is working in favor of the grain market bulls.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, January 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward near steady openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is still jittery Thursday morning following the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting Wednesday afternoon. The FOMC statement did not move markets much, but Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference saw Powell seemingly lean more hawkish than most expected. Powell gave no specific timeframe on upcoming rate increases and said the Fed will be “nimble.” The marketplace wanted more clarity on timing of the rate hikes and did not get it. In fact, Powell’s presser may have made the Fed’s monetary policy even less clear. And markets don’t like uncertainty. Still, many are thinking the Fed will make five interest rate increases within the next year. Fed watchers also think the central bank might start to shrink its balance sheet faster than what had been expected (quantitative tightening). “The Fed seems to be in a hurry now,” said one analyst.

Powell’s comment yesterday that the U.S. labor markets conditions are consistent with maximum employment means that the central bank is firmly focused rising inflation. This morning’s core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) number for the fourth quarter (as part of the GDP report) will give the latest check on inflation. Economists estimate the number will rise to 4,9% while GDP for the period will rise to an annualized 5.5% for the period.

Still on the front-burner of the marketplace is the Russia showdown with Western nations as Russia

appears poised to invade Ukraine. NATO allies are sending arms to Ukraine and putting NATO troops on higher alert, including 8,500 U.S. troops. Russian demands on Ukraine not being able to join NATO have been rejected by the U.S. This situation appears to be deteriorating and will likely get worse before it gets better.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices firmer and trading around $87.50 a barrel after hitting a seven-year high on Wednesday. The U.S. dollar index is higher and hit a 1.5-year high today. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 1.835%–up from earlier this week.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the advance fourth-quarter GDP report, durable goods orders, pending home sales and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices Monday hit a seven-month low. Prices are trending lower on the daily chart, to suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 4,300.00 and then at the overnight low of 4,263.25. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Resistance for active traders is seen at the overnight high of 4,368.00 and then at 4,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices Monday hit a seven-month low. Prices are trending lower on the daily chart to suggest a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 14,282.25 and then at 14,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 13,706.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending lower for seven weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 155 18/32 and then at 156 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 153 29/32 and then at the contract low of 153 7/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 127.24.0 and then at 127.28.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 127.06.5 and then at the contract low of 127.02.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower and hit a 22-month low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and have gained power this week. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1200 and then at the overnight high of 1.1253. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1162 and then at 1.1100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a seven-year high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a seven-week-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $89.00 and then at $90.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $86.34 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed to higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. The corn and soybean markets are being supported by very dry weather in South American growing regions. Corn and bean bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat prices have rebounded strongly recently and the bulls also have the firm near-term technical advantage. The “inflation trade” is also working in favor of the grain market bulls. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff