Daily Morning Report

Thursday, February 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls are still having a good week. Generally upbeat U.S. corporate earnings reports are boosting trader and investor confidence. China’s markets are closed this week for the Lunar New Year holiday.

In overnight news, the Bank of England is expected to raise its key interest rates at its regular monetary policy meeting Thursday. Meantime, the European Central Bank at its meeting today is expected to hold its rates steady, for now.

In other news, the Euro zone got some hot inflation data overnight. Its December producer price index came in at up 26.2%, year-on-year, mainly because of rising energy costs. Still, excluding energy the PPI was up 10%, year-on-year.

The important U.S. Labor Department employment situation report is due out Friday morning. That report is also expected to be downbeat, with its key non-farm payrolls number expected to come in up only 150,000 jobs in January.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices lower and trading around $87.00 a barrel. An OPEC-plus meeting Wednesday saw the cartel raise its collective oil production level by 400,000 barrels a day. The U.S. dollar index is higher today. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 1.774%.

It is a busy day for U.S. economic data released Thursday, including the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, preliminary productivity and costs, the U.S. services PMI, the ISM report on business services, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, the global services PMI, and the monthly chain store sales index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from this week’s strong gains. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,548.45 and then at this week’s high of 4,586.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,500.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of 4,474.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 14,870.00 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen 14,600.00 and then at 14,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Trading has been sideways at lower levels for two weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 156 5/32 and then at this week’s high of 156 17/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 154 25/32 and then at 154 15/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 128.07.5 and then at this week’s high of 128.11.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 127.21.5 and then at 127.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1340 and then at 1.1380. Shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 1.1275 and then at Tuesday’s low of 1.1230. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a two-month-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $88.14 and then at this week’s high of $88.87. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $86.55 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, on some profit taking and corrective pullbacks. Soybean and corn market bulls may now be exhausted and need to pause after recent strong gains. Corn and bean bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat prices have been choppy but the bulls are fading again. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, February 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls are having a very good week and are gaining strength and momentum again. Generally good U.S. corporate earnings reports are boosting trader and investor confidence this week. China’s markets are closed all week for the Lunar New Year holiday.

In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index for January came in at up 5.1%, year-on-year, compared to a forecast of up 5.0%.

The U.S. data point of the day is the ADP national employment report for January, which is expected to come in at up 200,000 jobs. This report is the precursor to the more important Labor Department employment situation report that is due out Friday morning. That report is expected to be somewhat downbeat, with its key non-farm payrolls number expected to come in up only 150,000 jobs in January.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices a bit lower and trading around $88.00 a barrel. Traders will closely monitor an OPEC-plus meeting that began today. The cartel is expected to raise its collective oil production level. The U.S. dollar index is solidly lower today. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 1.797%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,600.00 and then at 4,650.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,547.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 4,474.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly up and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,300.00 and then at 15,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 15,104.25 and then at 15,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Trading has been sideways at lower levels for two weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 156 even and then at this week’s high of 156 10/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 154 25/32 and then at 154 15/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 128.02.5 and then at this week’s high of 128.11.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 127.21.5 and then at 127.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1350 and then at 1.1400. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1275 and then at Tuesday’s low of 1.1230. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a two-month-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $88.87 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $86.55 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are higher again in early U.S. pre-market trading, with soybeans leading the charge and setting new contract highs again. Corn and bean bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat prices have been choppy but the bulls still hold the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The “inflation trade” is working in favor of all the grain market bulls at present.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, February 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. China’s markets are closed all week for the Lunar New Year holiday. There may be a bit less risk aversion in the marketplace early this week, following the big gains in U.S. stock indexes on Monday. The Russia-Ukraine border situation remains tense, but there is some speculation the matter won’t devolve into war. Still of concern to traders and investors is the timing of Federal Reserve monetary policy. Fed watchers are debating whether upcoming U.S. interest rate increases may be too rapid and an over-reaction to inflation concerns.

In overnight news, Australia’s central bank said it is exiting its quantitative easing of its monetary policy, but added that does not imply upcoming interest rate increases.

The gold market has rebounded this week, following last week’s shellacking. Reports said $5 billion of new funds piled into the gold market in late January. Safe-haven demand and inflation-related hedge moves are supporting the yellow metal. Also, the shaky crypto currency markets are likely benefiting the gold bugs.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices near steady and trading around $88.00 a barrel. Traders will closely monitor an OPEC-plus meeting that begins Wednesday. The cartel is expected to raise its collective oil production level. The U.S. dollar index is lower again today. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 1.76%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly chain store and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business manufacturing, construction spending, the global manufacturing PMI, and domestic auto industry sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,514.50 and then at 4,550.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,350.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,395.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,000.00 and then at 15,150.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,700.00 and then at 14,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 156 19/32 and then at 157 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 155 9/32 and then at 154 15/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 128.16.0 and then at 128.22.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 127.29.0 and then at this week’s low of 127.21.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1300 and then at 1.1350. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1230 and then at 1.1200. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a two-month-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the January high of $88.84 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $86.00 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. The corn and soybean markets are still supported by very dry weather in South American growing regions. Corn and bean bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat prices have been choppy but the bulls still hold the overall near-term technical advantage. The “inflation trade” is working in favor of all the grain market bulls.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, January 31–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Markets in China and South Korea were closed for a holiday Monday. China’s markets are closed all week for the Lunar New Year holiday. Stock indexes are poised to close out January with solid losses on the month. Inflation worries are high and the Federal Reserve appears behind the curve on controlling it, Covid is still causing global economic problems two years into the pandemic, and Ukraine and Russia remain in a stare-down at their shared border. All of the above are making for reduced trader and investors risk appetite in the marketplace.

In overnight news, there was another drone attack against the United Arab Emirates, for the third week in a row. Iran-backed Houthi terrorists were likely responsible. Markets showed no major reactions to the news.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices firmer and trading around $87.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker today. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 1.789%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago ISM business survey and purchasing managers index, and the Texas manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily chart, to suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 4,375.00 and then at 4,350.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Resistance for active traders is seen at last week’s high of 4,446.25 and then at 4,475.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily chart to suggest a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 14,639.75 and then at 14,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,353.25 and then at 14,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending lower for two months. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 155 30/32 and then at 156 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at 155 even and then at 154 15/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 128.00.5 and then at 128.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 127.24.5 and then at 127.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1200 and then at 1.1253. Shorter-term support is seen at the January low of 1.1130 and then at 1.1100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a two-month-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the January high of $88.84 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $86.00 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. The corn and soybean markets are supported by very dry weather in South American growing regions. Corn and bean bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat prices have rebounded again amid worries about Russia invading Ukraine and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The “inflation trade” is working in favor of all the grain market bulls. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff