Daily Morning Report

Monday, February 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Focus remains in corporate earnings reports being released, which have been generally upbeat. Friday’s surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report also has traders and investors focusing more keenly on Federal Reserve policy, with some market watchers now thinking the Fed will hike its key Fed funds rate by 0.5% in March.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices lower and trading around $91.50 a barrel after prices Friday hit a seven-year high. Oil traders are eyeing $100-a-barrel crude in the not-too-distant future. The U.S. dollar index is near steady early today. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 1.925%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index and consumer credit.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from last week’s good gains. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Friday’s high of 4,532.50 and then at last week’s high of 4,586.00. Support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 4,438.50 and then at last week’s low of 4,395.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 14,825.75 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,500.00 and then at last week’s low of 14,353.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract low last Friday. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 152 30/32 and then at 154 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 153 2/32 and then at 152 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and did hit a contract low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 127.01.0 and then at 127.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 126.22.5 and then at 126.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, the bulls have made a good rebound recently to suggest a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the January high of 1.1495 and then at 1.1550. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1423 and then at 1.1400. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the strong overall near-term technical advantage amid a nine-week-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s seven-year high of $93.17 and then at $94.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Friday’s low of $90.07 and then at $89.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Soybean and corn market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls and bears are on a level overall naer-term technical playing field amid choppy trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, February 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The features so far this week have been corporate earnings reports, including a downside miss on earnings by Meta (Facebook). Amazon’s earnings were solid, however. Focus Friday is on the important U.S. Labor Department employment situation report this morning. That report is also expected to be downbeat, with its key non-farm payrolls number expected to come in up only 150,000 jobs in January. A miss on that number will likely cause some volatility in some markets, at least initially.

Central bank policies remain near the front burner of the marketplace. The Euro currency posted strong gains Thursday in the wake of the European Central Bank unexpectedly leaning more hawkish on its monetary policy, in remarks from ECB President Christine Lagarde after Thursday’s regular ECB meeting. Meantime, the U.S. Federal Reserve appears to be continuing to lean more hawkish, not wanting to get farther behind the curve on fighting inflation.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices higher and trading around $91.75 a barrel. That’s a seven-year high. Oil traders are now eyeing $100-a-barrel crude in the not-too-distant future. The U.S. dollar index is weaker today and the bears have had a good week. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 1.817%.

There is no other for U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from this week’s good gains. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,528.00 and then at Thursday’s high of 4,548.25. Support for active traders is seen at 4,425.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,395.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 14,825.75 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,353.25 and then at 14,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Trading has been sideways at lower levels for two weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 156 even and then at this week’s high of 156 17/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 154 9/32 and then at 153 29/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 128.00.0 and then at this week’s high of 128.11.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 127.14.0 and then at 127.06.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, the bulls have made a strong run this week, to suggest a market bottom is now in place. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the January high of 1.1495 and then at 1.1550. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1440 and then at 1.1400. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher and hit another seven-year high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage amid a two-month-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $92.16 and then at $93.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $90.07 and then at $89.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Soybean and corn market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls and bears are on a level overall naer-term technical playing field amid choppy trading. Wheat bears do have momentum on their side. For corn and soybeans, bulls must remember that a strong bull market must be fed fresh fundamental inputs often. One has to wonder of the current, known fundamentals in the corn and soybean markets are now fully factored into futures prices.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, February 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls are still having a good week. Generally upbeat U.S. corporate earnings reports are boosting trader and investor confidence. China’s markets are closed this week for the Lunar New Year holiday.

In overnight news, the Bank of England is expected to raise its key interest rates at its regular monetary policy meeting Thursday. Meantime, the European Central Bank at its meeting today is expected to hold its rates steady, for now.

In other news, the Euro zone got some hot inflation data overnight. Its December producer price index came in at up 26.2%, year-on-year, mainly because of rising energy costs. Still, excluding energy the PPI was up 10%, year-on-year.

The important U.S. Labor Department employment situation report is due out Friday morning. That report is also expected to be downbeat, with its key non-farm payrolls number expected to come in up only 150,000 jobs in January.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices lower and trading around $87.00 a barrel. An OPEC-plus meeting Wednesday saw the cartel raise its collective oil production level by 400,000 barrels a day. The U.S. dollar index is higher today. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 1.774%.

It is a busy day for U.S. economic data released Thursday, including the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, preliminary productivity and costs, the U.S. services PMI, the ISM report on business services, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, the global services PMI, and the monthly chain store sales index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from this week’s strong gains. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,548.45 and then at this week’s high of 4,586.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,500.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of 4,474.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 14,870.00 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen 14,600.00 and then at 14,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Trading has been sideways at lower levels for two weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 156 5/32 and then at this week’s high of 156 17/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 154 25/32 and then at 154 15/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 128.07.5 and then at this week’s high of 128.11.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 127.21.5 and then at 127.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1340 and then at 1.1380. Shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 1.1275 and then at Tuesday’s low of 1.1230. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a two-month-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $88.14 and then at this week’s high of $88.87. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $86.55 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, on some profit taking and corrective pullbacks. Soybean and corn market bulls may now be exhausted and need to pause after recent strong gains. Corn and bean bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat prices have been choppy but the bulls are fading again. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, February 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls are having a very good week and are gaining strength and momentum again. Generally good U.S. corporate earnings reports are boosting trader and investor confidence this week. China’s markets are closed all week for the Lunar New Year holiday.

In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index for January came in at up 5.1%, year-on-year, compared to a forecast of up 5.0%.

The U.S. data point of the day is the ADP national employment report for January, which is expected to come in at up 200,000 jobs. This report is the precursor to the more important Labor Department employment situation report that is due out Friday morning. That report is expected to be somewhat downbeat, with its key non-farm payrolls number expected to come in up only 150,000 jobs in January.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices a bit lower and trading around $88.00 a barrel. Traders will closely monitor an OPEC-plus meeting that began today. The cartel is expected to raise its collective oil production level. The U.S. dollar index is solidly lower today. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 1.797%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,600.00 and then at 4,650.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,547.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 4,474.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly up and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,300.00 and then at 15,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 15,104.25 and then at 15,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Trading has been sideways at lower levels for two weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 156 even and then at this week’s high of 156 10/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 154 25/32 and then at 154 15/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 128.02.5 and then at this week’s high of 128.11.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 127.21.5 and then at 127.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1350 and then at 1.1400. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1275 and then at Tuesday’s low of 1.1230. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a two-month-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $88.87 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $86.55 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are higher again in early U.S. pre-market trading, with soybeans leading the charge and setting new contract highs again. Corn and bean bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat prices have been choppy but the bulls still hold the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The “inflation trade” is working in favor of all the grain market bulls at present.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff