Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, February 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Attention remains on the release of corporate earnings reports. While the earnings reports have been generally upbeat, traders and investors are still wary about rising inflation and the timing of the Federal Reserve’s tightening of its monetary policy. Rising U.S. Treasury yields this week suggest the marketplace is placing its bets on a more aggressive path of rate hikes from the Fed over the coming months.

The marketplace is still closely watching the Russia buildup of troops and weapons on the Ukrainian border. However, there are growing notions Russia may not invade Ukraine, amid a flurry of diplomacy from European nations.

The U.S. data point of the week will be Thursday morning’s consumer price index report for January, expected to come in at up 7.2%, year-on-year. That would be a hot reading if the CPI number meets market expectations.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices lower and trading around $88.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is lower early today. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 1.925%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, monthly wholesale trade and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the February high of 4,586.00 and then at 4,600.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,500.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,456.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,000.00 and then at the February high of 15,260.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 14,741.00 and then at this week’s low 14,467.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a contract low on Tuesday. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 153 30/32 and then at 154 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at 153 even and then at the contract low of 152 27/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and did hit another contract low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 127.01.0 and then at 127.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 126.13.5 and then at 126.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the January high of 1.1495 and then at 1.1550. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1404 and then at 1.1350. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a nine-week-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $90.00 and then at Tuesday’s high of $91.68. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $88.51 and then at $87.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Soybean and corn market bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading. Next up for data is today’s monthly USDA supply and demand report, with keen focus on USDA’s projection of the sizes of the South American corn and soybean crops. Look for a more volatile trading day in the grains today, following the 12:00 noon EDT release of the report.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, February 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Corporate earnings reports are in the spotlight at present. While earnings reports have been mostly upbeat, some have not, including a few big companies. That and inflation worries are making the U.S. stock indexes wobbly. More and more, it’s looking like the Federal Reserve will be aggressive and raise the Fed funds rate by 0.5% at its March meeting. Historically, rising interest rates and rising inflation have been bearish for stock markets.

The U.S. data point of the week will be Thursday morning’s consumer price index report for January, expected to come in at up 7.2%, year-on-year. That would be a hot reading if the CPI number meets market expectations.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices lower and trading around $89.65 a barrel after prices last Friday hit a seven-year high. The U.S. dollar index is firmer early today. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 1.932%, which is near a three-year high.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly chain store and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the NFIB small business index, the international trade report, and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,514.50 and then at 4,532.50. Support for active traders is seen at last Friday’s low of 4,438.50 and then at last week’s low of 4,395.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 14,806.25 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 14,353.25 and then at 14,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and hit another contract low overnight. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 153 18/32 and then at this week’s high of 153 30/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 152 27/32 and then at 152 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and hit a contract low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.29.5 and then at this week’s high of 127.01.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 126.15.5 and then at 126.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the January high of 1.1495 and then at 1.1550. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1404 and then at 1.1350. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the strong overall near-term technical advantage amid a nine-week-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $91.68 and then at last Friday’s seven-year high of $93.17. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $89.01 and then at $88.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, on some routine profit taking from recent gains. Soybean and corn market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading. Next up for data is Wednesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report, with keen focus on USDA’s projection of the sizes of the South American corn and soybean crops.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, February 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Focus remains in corporate earnings reports being released, which have been generally upbeat. Friday’s surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report also has traders and investors focusing more keenly on Federal Reserve policy, with some market watchers now thinking the Fed will hike its key Fed funds rate by 0.5% in March.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices lower and trading around $91.50 a barrel after prices Friday hit a seven-year high. Oil traders are eyeing $100-a-barrel crude in the not-too-distant future. The U.S. dollar index is near steady early today. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 1.925%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index and consumer credit.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from last week’s good gains. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Friday’s high of 4,532.50 and then at last week’s high of 4,586.00. Support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 4,438.50 and then at last week’s low of 4,395.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 14,825.75 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,500.00 and then at last week’s low of 14,353.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract low last Friday. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 152 30/32 and then at 154 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 153 2/32 and then at 152 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and did hit a contract low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 127.01.0 and then at 127.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 126.22.5 and then at 126.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, the bulls have made a good rebound recently to suggest a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the January high of 1.1495 and then at 1.1550. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1423 and then at 1.1400. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the strong overall near-term technical advantage amid a nine-week-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s seven-year high of $93.17 and then at $94.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Friday’s low of $90.07 and then at $89.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Soybean and corn market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls and bears are on a level overall naer-term technical playing field amid choppy trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, February 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The features so far this week have been corporate earnings reports, including a downside miss on earnings by Meta (Facebook). Amazon’s earnings were solid, however. Focus Friday is on the important U.S. Labor Department employment situation report this morning. That report is also expected to be downbeat, with its key non-farm payrolls number expected to come in up only 150,000 jobs in January. A miss on that number will likely cause some volatility in some markets, at least initially.

Central bank policies remain near the front burner of the marketplace. The Euro currency posted strong gains Thursday in the wake of the European Central Bank unexpectedly leaning more hawkish on its monetary policy, in remarks from ECB President Christine Lagarde after Thursday’s regular ECB meeting. Meantime, the U.S. Federal Reserve appears to be continuing to lean more hawkish, not wanting to get farther behind the curve on fighting inflation.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices higher and trading around $91.75 a barrel. That’s a seven-year high. Oil traders are now eyeing $100-a-barrel crude in the not-too-distant future. The U.S. dollar index is weaker today and the bears have had a good week. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 1.817%.

There is no other for U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from this week’s good gains. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,528.00 and then at Thursday’s high of 4,548.25. Support for active traders is seen at 4,425.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,395.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 14,825.75 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,353.25 and then at 14,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Trading has been sideways at lower levels for two weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 156 even and then at this week’s high of 156 17/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 154 9/32 and then at 153 29/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 128.00.0 and then at this week’s high of 128.11.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 127.14.0 and then at 127.06.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, the bulls have made a strong run this week, to suggest a market bottom is now in place. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the January high of 1.1495 and then at 1.1550. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1440 and then at 1.1400. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher and hit another seven-year high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage amid a two-month-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $92.16 and then at $93.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $90.07 and then at $89.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Soybean and corn market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls and bears are on a level overall naer-term technical playing field amid choppy trading. Wheat bears do have momentum on their side. For corn and soybeans, bulls must remember that a strong bull market must be fed fresh fundamental inputs often. One has to wonder of the current, known fundamentals in the corn and soybean markets are now fully factored into futures prices.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff