Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, January 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with Asian shares mostly down and European shares mostly up. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The major U.S. indexes hit seven-month lows on Monday. Serious near-term technical damage has been inflicted upon the U.S. stock indexes, to suggest they have at put in near-term market tops. However, the big rebounds from Monday’s strong losses in the U.S. indexes and the closes nearer the daily highs does suggest the stock market bears are now exhausted.

Risk aversion remains elevated early this week. Russia appears poised to invade Ukraine. NATO allies are responding by sending arms to Ukraine and putting NATO troops on higher alert, including some U.S. troops. The situation appears to be getting graver by the day.

The U.S. data point of the week will be the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. It’s expected the Fed will raise U.S. interest rates at its March FOMC meeting. The marketplace appears to be getting more anxious regarding how the Fed is going to deal with rising and even problematic price inflation. Most believe at this FOMC meeting the Fed and Chairman Powell will better lay the groundwork for four U.S. interest rate increases this year.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices firmer and trading around $84.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher early today. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 1.778%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail sales reports, the monthly house price index, the S&P Core-Logic housing indexes, the Richmond Fed business survey, and the consumer confidence index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Monday hit a seven-month low. Prices are trending lower on the daily chart, to suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 4,300.00 and then at 4,252.75. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Resistance for active traders is seen at this week’s high of 4,427.50 and then at 4,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Monday hit a seven-month low. Prices are trending lower on the daily chart to suggest a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 14,582.00 and then at last Friday’s high of 14,858.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 14,151.25 and then at 14,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending lower for seven weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 155 24/32 and then at 156 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 154 27/32 and then at 154 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 128.12.0 and then at this week’s high of 128.22.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 127.31.5 and then at 127.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1341 and then at 1.1381. Shorter-term support is seen at the November low of 1.1221 and then at 1.1200. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a seven-week-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $86.09 and then at the January high of $87.10. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $81.90 and then at $81.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are steady to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. The grain market bulls are being squelched a bit early this week by keener risk aversion in the general marketplace. The corn and soybean markets are still being supported by very dry weather in South American growing regions. Corn and bean bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat prices have rebounded recently and the bulls have gained momentum–once again proving resilient.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, January 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Serious near-term technical damage has been inflicted upon the U.S. stock indexes, to suggest they have at put in near-term market tops.

Geopolitics is on the front burner of the marketplace at present. Iran-backed terrorists used drones to strike the United Arab Emirates capital of Abu Dhabi. No major damage occurred as the drones were intercepted. This was the second such drone attack by the terrorists. Meantime, Russia appears poised to invade Ukraine, despite the West’s efforts to dissuade Russian President Putin by threatening sanctions. The U.S. has ordered its diplomats to leave the Ukraine due to the prospect of war.

The U.S. data point of the week will be the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. It’s expected the Fed will raise U.S. interest rates at its March FOMC meeting.

In other news, crypto currencies continue to get hammered. Bitcoin has now lost around half its value from the high scored in November. The crypto currency Ether has lost about a third of its value since last Thursday.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices slightly down and trading around $84.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher early today. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 1.733%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index, and the flash U.S. services and manufacturing purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI).

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading and hit a 13-week low overnight. Prices are trending lower on the daily chart, to suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 4,361.25 and then at 4,350.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Resistance for active traders is seen at the overnight high of 4,427.50 and then at 4,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading and hit a seven-month low overnight. Prices are trending lower on the daily chart to suggest a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 14,582.00 and then at Friday’s high of 14,858.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 14,292.00 and then at 14,150.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading on more short covering. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending lower for seven weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 156 17/32 and then at 157 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 155 12/32 and then at 155 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 128.18.0 and then at 128.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 127.31.4 and then at 127.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1400 and then at last week’s high of 1.1447. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1300 and then at the January low of 1.1287. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a seven-week-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the January high of $87.10 and then at $88.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Friday’s low of $82.78 and then at $82.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. The corn and soybean markets are being supported by very dry weather in South American growing regions. Corn and bean bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat prices are still trending lower on the daily bar charts, but the bulls have gained some momentum recently, and are once again proving resilient.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, January 21–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite has receded this week. Inflation fears that are growing have put pressure on paper assets recently—namely stocks and bonds. Technical damage has been inflicted in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq stock indexes that suggests those markets have put in at least near-term tops. Geopolitics are also in play early this year as the U.S. and Russia are in a stare-down over Russia’s aggression ambitions against Ukraine.

Crypto currencies are also feeling the heat this week, with Bitcoin hitting its lowest level since August.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices down and trading around $84.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is a bit weaker early today. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 1.792%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes leading economic indicators.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and hit a three-month low overnight. Bulls have faded badly recently, to suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 4,429.50 and then at 4,400.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Resistance for active traders is seen at the overnight high of 4,477.75 and then at 4,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and hit another three-month low overnight. Bulls have faded badly to suggest a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 14,816.50 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 14,602.25 and then at 14,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending lower for six weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 155 22/32 and then at 156 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 154 25/32 and then at 154 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 128.10.0 and then at 128.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 127.28.0 and then at 127.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1400 and then at this week’s high of 1.1447. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1312 and then at the January low of 1.1287. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a six-week-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $85.00 and then at this week’s high of $87.10. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $82.78 and then at $82.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading, on corrective pullbacks from recent good gains. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. The corn and soybean markets are being supported by very dry weather in South American growing regions. Corn and bean bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat prices are still trending lower on the daily bar charts, but the bulls have gained momentum this week.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff