Daily Morning Report

Thursday, January 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly up and Asian shares mostly down. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The Nasdaq stock index has moved into “correction” territory, which means its price is down over 20% from its peak.

In other overnight news, China cut its main interest rates slightly, which is the second move this week to lower its key interest rates. China’s monetary authorities are trying to stimulate their listing economy. The China rate cuts come as other major central banks of the world are looking to tighten their monetary policies.

A report said the big jump in gold prices to a two-month high on Wednesday occurred as a big inflow of $305 million went into the SPDR gold exchange traded fund (ETF) on Wednesday. The report said that was the biggest money inflow into a gold ETF since November. This is just one more indicator of traders and investors worrying about and acting upon rising and even problematic inflation.

In other news, the Euro zone consumer price index for December was reported up 5.0%, year-on-year, which was right in line with market expectations, but still hot.

President Joe Biden at his press conference late Wednesday afternoon candidly laid out scenarios of any Russian invasion of Ukraine. Biden’s remarks suggested that he was indicating to Russian President Putin that varying degrees of a Russian invasion would be met with varying degrees of a Western-nation response.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices slightly down and trading around $86.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is a bit firmer early today. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 1.835%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, existing home sales, and the weekly DOE liquid energy report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are up in early U.S. trading after hitting a six-week low overnight. Bulls have faded recently, to suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 4,514.50 and then at 4,500.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Resistance for active traders is seen at Wednesday’s high of 4,603.00 and then at 4,650.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit another three-month low overnight. Bulls have faded to suggest a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 15,372.00 and then at 15,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 14,993.75 and then at 14,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending lower for six weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 155 1/32 and then at 155 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 153 18/32 and then at the contract low of 153 7/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 128.01.5 and then at 128.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 127.08.0 and then at the contract low of 127.02.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1400 and then at this week’s high of 1.1447. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1328 and then at 1.1300. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a six-week-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $87.91 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $85.00 and then at this week’s low of $83.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain market bulls are having a good week, amid rising inflation concerns that are bullish for hard assets, including the grains. The corn and soybean markets are being supported by very dry weather in South American growing regions. Corn and bean bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat prices are still trending lower on the daily bar charts, but the bulls have gained momentum this week.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, January 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins, following solid losses Tuesday. Risk aversion is heightened at mid-week. The Biden Administration said it thinks Russia may be on the brink of invading Ukraine. North Korea is test-firing missiles again, and terrorists attacked the United Arab Emirates with drones a few days ago. And bond yields are rising on rising inflation concerns.

In overnight news, U.K. inflation rose to a 30-year high as the consumer price index rose 5.4% in December, year-on-year.

The key outside markets today see crude oil prices higher, at a seven-year high and trading around $86.50 a barrel. The International Energy Agency forecast that global oil demand in 2022 will exceed that of the pre-pandemic levels.

The U.S. dollar index is weaker early today. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 1.89%. The U.S. two-year note yield has pushed above 1.0%. The 10-year German bond (bund) yield moved into positive territory for the first time in nearly three years, fetching 0.008%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly chain store sales index, new residential construction, and the Johnson Redbook retail sales report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading after hitting a four-week low overnight. Bulls have faded recently. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 4,535.50 and then at 4,520.25. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Resistance for active traders is seen at 4,600.00 and then at 4,650.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a three-month low overnight. Bulls have faded to suggest a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,500.00 and then at this week’s high of 15,653.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 15,050.75 and then at 15,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending lower for six weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 153 25/32 and then at 154 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 153 7/32 and then at 153 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 127.11.5 and then at 127.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 127.02.0 and then at 127.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but recent price action suggests a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1400 and then at this week’s high of 1.1447. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1328 and then at 1.1300. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit another seven-year high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a six-week-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $87.08 and then at $88.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $83.50 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are solidly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain traders appear to be concerned about Russia invading Ukraine. Both countries are major wheat producers. The corn and soybean markets are being supported by very dry weather in South American growing regions. Corn and bean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat prices are still trending lower on the daily bar charts, but the bulls have gained momentum this week.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, January 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins, on keener risk aversion after a three-day holiday weekend. Crude oil prices pushed to a seven-year high overnight after the United Arab Emirates was hit by a deadly drone attack on its capital. While the damage was limited, the strikes by Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels reminds how vulnerable oil producers are to attack from drones. Nymex crude oil futures prices and trading around $85.25 a barrel. North Korea is also making geopolitical noise by test-firing missiles.

Bond yields are also on the rise this week. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently yielding 1.818%–the highest level in two years. Traders and investors are sensing that inflationary pressures will get worse before they get better.

In other news, China cut its main interest rates to prop up the world’s second-largest economy. This comes as other major central banks of the world are tightening their monetary policies. China President Xi Jinping at the Davos virtual economic summit warned major industrial nations not to raise interest rates too quickly, which could choke the global economic recovery.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the Empire State manufacturing survey, the NAHB housing market index and Treasury international capital data.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded recently. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the January low of 4,572.75 and then at 4,520.25. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Resistance for active traders is seen at the overnight high of 4,671.75 and then at 4,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,653.25 and then at 15,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 15,270.00 and then at the January low of 15,152.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending lower for six weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 155 1/32 and then at 155 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 153 29/32 and then at 153 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 128.01.5 and then at 128.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 127.15.0 and then at 121.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but recent price action suggests a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1447 and then at the January high of 1.1496. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1350 and then at 1.1300. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit a seven-year high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a six-week-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $85.74 and then at $86.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $83.50 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. The corn and soybean bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, but trading has been choppy recently. Wheat prices are still trending lower on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, January 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is not robust late this week, but neither is risk aversion.

The U.S. gets another key inflation report today. The December producer price index is expected to come in at up 0.4% from November and follows a rise of 0.8% in the November report. The consumer price index report that was out Wednesday ran hot, showing an annual rise of 7.0%.

Traders will also be monitoring Federal Reserve governor Lael Brainard’s comments as she appears today before a Senate committee regarding her nomination for vice chair of the Federal Reserve.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices near steady and trading around $82.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker again and hit another two-month low early today. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently yielding 1.75%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Tuesday’s low of 4,627.25 and then at 4,600.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Resistance for active traders is seen at this week’s high of 4,739.50 and then at 4,775.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 16,009.25 and then at 16,150.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 15,762.50 and then at 15,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending lower for five weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 156 even and then at 156 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at Tuesday’s low of 155 9/32 and then at 155 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 128.22.5 and then at 128.28.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 128.08.0 and then at contract low of 127.30.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly higher and hit a two-month high in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid recent sideways trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1500 and then at 1.1550. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1449 and then at 1.1400. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices are near last fall’s seven-year high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a five-week-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $82.94 and then at $84.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $82.00 and then at $81.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. The corn and soybean bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, but wheat prices are trending lower on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff