Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, January 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

The U.S. data point of the week will be Wednesday’s consumer price index report for December, which is expected to come in at up 7.1%, year-on-year. If realized, that number would be the highest year-on-year consumer inflation in 40 years. Traders will be closely watching how U.S. Treasuries react to the CPI data today. If yields rise significantly, that could spook the general marketplace. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.741%.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday reassured the marketplace that the Fed can reduce the pace of price increases without damaging the economy. He also said the U.S. economy is growing at a solid pace. His comments appeared to assuage, at least for the moment, traders and investors who had been a bit nervous about the Fed tightening U.S. monetary policy.

In overnight news, China’s consumer price index for December was reported up 1.5% year-on-year, which was just below the 1.6% rise expected.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices higher and trading around $81.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is near steady early today.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, real earnings, the Federal Reserve’s beige book, the monthly Treasury budget statement, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.  

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Tuesday’s low of 4,627.25 and then at 4,600.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Resistance for active traders is seen at 4,743.25 and then at 4,775.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 16,000.00 and then at 16,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 15,475.00 and then at 15,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending lower for five weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 156 4/32 and then at 156 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at Tuesday’s low of 155 9/32 and then at 155 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 128.17.0 and then at 128.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 127.30.0 and then at 127.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid recent sideways trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.1376 and then at the December high of 1.1403. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.1287 and then at 1.1247. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a 2.5-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a five-week-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the October high of $82.13 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $81.00 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. The big data point of the week is Wednesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. Look for more active trading in the grains after the 12 noon EST release of the report. The corn and soybean bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, but wheat prices are trending lower on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, January 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are more cautious this week, trying to adjust to a marketplace of tighter central bank monetary policies in 2022, amid rising inflation.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify to a Senate banking committee today, regarding his nomination for a second term as Fed chair. He will surely be asked questions about the trajectory of Fed monetary policy and inflation prospects.

The U.S. data point of the week will be Wednesday’s consumer price index report for December, which is expected to come in at up 7.1%, year-on-year.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices higher and trading around $79.35 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker early today. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.74%, which is down a bit from Monday’s pandemic high of just above 1.8%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is light and includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store sales reports, the NFIB small business optimism index, and the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 4,653.25 and then at 4,600.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Resistance for active traders is seen at 4,700.00 and then at 4,725.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,800.00 and then at 15,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 15,564.75 and then at 15,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading in short covering after hitting a contract low Monday. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending lower for five weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 156 1/32 and then at 156 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 155 13/32 and then at 155 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low on Monday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 128.16.0 and then at 128.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 127.30.0 and then at 127.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid recent sideways trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.1376 and then at the December high of 1.1403. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.1287 and then at 1.1247. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a five-week-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at last week’s high of $80.47. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $79.00 and then at Monday’s low of $77.83. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mostly firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. The big data point of the week is Wednesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. The corn and soybean bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, but wheat prices are trending lower on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, January 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk aversion is not keen early this week, but neither is their risk appetite. Rising bond yields amid tighter monetary policies from major central banks of the world are giving the marketplace pause. Last week the Federal Reserve suggested it will raise U.S. interest rates three times in 2022, in order to curb rising inflation that is becoming more problematic.

The U.S. data point of the week will be Wednesday’s consumer price index report for December, which is expected to come in at up 7.1%, year-on-year.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices slightly lower and trading around $78.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is firmer early today. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.795%, which a pandemic era high.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index and monthly wholesale trade.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 4,650.00 and then at 4,625.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Resistance for active traders is seen at 4,700.00 and then at 4,725.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and hit a 2.5-month low in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,669.00 and then at 15,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,400.00 and then at 15,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract low overnight. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending lower for five weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 156 even and then at 156 12/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 154 19/32 and then at 154 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady and hit a contact low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 128.24.0 and then at 129.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 127.30.0 and then at 127.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1376 and then at the December high of 1.1403. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.1287 and then at 1.1247. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $79.45 and then at last week’s high of $80.47. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $78.00 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. The corn and soybean bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, but wheat prices are trending lower on the daily bar charts. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, January 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Marketplace attention is on Friday morning’s U.S. employment situation report for December, which is expected to see its key non-farm payrolls component show a rise of 425,000 after a rise of 210,000 in the November report. The overall unemployment rate is seen at 4.1% in December compared to 4.2% reported in the November report. Look for higher markets volatility if the non-farm jobs number is a big miss, which has occurred in recent months.

In overnight news, the Euro zone’s consumer price index for December came in at up 5.0%, year-on-year, versus a reading of up 4.9% in November and expectations for a rise of 4.7%. The December number is a record high inflation rate for the Euro zone.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices higher, at a two-month high and trading around $80.15 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker early today. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.733%. U.S. bond yields have been on the rise for three weeks and have taken a big jump this week.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the consumer credit report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,725.00 and then at 4,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,662.00 and then at 4,650.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 15,895.75 and then at 16,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,598.50 and then at 15,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up on short covering after hitting a contract low Thursday. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid this week’s downdraft in prices. Prices have been trending lower for four weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 156 20/32 and then at 157 even. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 155 15/32 and then at 155 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up on short covering after hitting a contract low Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 129.00.0 and then at 129.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 128.14.0 and then at 128.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Not much new. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the December high of 1.1403 and then at the December high of 1.1417. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1287 and then at 1.1247. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a two-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $80.47 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $79.00 and then at $78.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, amid some keener risk aversion in the marketplace late this week. The corn and soybean bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, but wheat prices are still trending lower on the daily bar charts. Look for the rising inflation worries to ultimately be bullish for the grain futures markets.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you. Jim Wyckof

Thursday, January 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins, after Wednesday’s strong sell off that came in the wake of the afternoon release of the FOMC minutes from the Federal Reserve. The Fed minutes indicated a “very tight” U.S. job market and rising inflation might require the central bank to raise interest rates even sooner than many already expected, and begin reducing its overall asset balance sheet. The minutes suggested inflationary concerns outweigh the economic risks posed by the rampant Omicron variant of the coronavirus. The probability that the Fed will raise interest rates in March rose to greater than 70%, according to the Fed funds futures market.

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.732%. U.S. bond yields have been on the rise for three weeks and have taken a big jump this week, including after the hawkish FOMC minutes. For perspective, the German 10-year bond (bund) is presently yielding -0.096% and the U.K. 10-year bond (gilt) yield is trading at 1.148%.

Gold prices dropped sharply overnight, in the wake of the FOMC minutes. Rising U.S. interest rates as evidenced by rising U.S. Treasury yields are bullish for the U.S. dollar. Gold and the greenback many times move in the opposite direction on a daily basis. However, the U.S. dollar index has shown little reaction to the Fed minutes.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices higher, at a seven-week high and trading around $79.25 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly up early today.

Attention will soon turn to Friday’s U.S. employment situation report for December, which is expected to see its key non-farm payrolls component show a rise of 425,000 after a rise of 210,000 in the November report. The overall unemployment rate is seen at 4.1% in December compared to 4.2% reported in the November report.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the U.S. international trade report, the ISM report on business services, the global services PMI, the monthly chain store sales index, and manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading, following Wednesday’s sharp losses. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,725.00 and then at 4,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,668.00 and then at 4,650.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading again. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,813.00 and then at 16,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 15,620.25 and then at 15,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid this week’s downdraft in price. Prices have been trending lower for four weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 156 even and then at the overnight high of 156 20/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 155 17/32 and then at 155 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 129.00.0 and then at 129.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 128.16.0 and then at 128.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the December high of 1.1403 and then at the December high of 1.1417. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1287 and then at 1.1247. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a seven-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $79.37 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $78.00 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, as the bulls are spooked by the hawkish Fed minutes and keener risk aversion today. The corn and soybean bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, but wheat prices are still trending lower on the daily bar charts. Look for the rising inflation worries to ultimately be bullish for the grain futures markets.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff