Daily Morning Report

Monday, January 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

On the first trading day of 2022, global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. Markets in China, Japan and Australia were closed. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The S&P 500 stock index gained 27% in 2021, while notching 70 record highs on the year.

There is little risk aversion in the marketplace at present and that has the U.S. stock indexes trading not far below their record highs. Some market analysts believe 2022 will be a rockier year for the stock markets, what with rising inflation, central banks reining in their heretofore easy money policies, and the globe still doing battle with the pandemic.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices up and trading around $76.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher early today. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.541%. U.S. bond yields have been on the rise for three weeks.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) and construction spending.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and near last week’s record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 4,799.75 and then at 4,825.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 4,750.50 and then at 4,713.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 16,500.00 and then at 16,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 16,313.75 and then at 12,145.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending lower for four weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 160 5/32 and then at Friday’s high of 160 18/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 159 20/32 and then at last week’s low of 159 1/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 130.11.0 and then at 130.18.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 130.02.5 and then at 130.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has been choppy and sideways, to begin to suggest a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the December high of 1.1403 and then at 1.1417. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1351 and then at 1.1300. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the December high of $77.44 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Friday’s low of $74.95 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are solidly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. The bulls are out of the gate strong for the new year, on speculative fund buying amid bullish technicals. The “inflation trade” appears to be gaining steam early this year and that is also bullish for the grains. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, December 31–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in quiet overnight dealings, with some closed for the New Year holiday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Look for more low-volume trading on this last day of 2021. The U.S. government is closed today. Risk aversion is not keen late this week, but neither is risk appetite.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $76.25 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is near steady early today. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.51%. For 2021, the 10-year yield was up 0.6%–the biggest yearly gain in eight years.

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL MY VALUED READERS!!!

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading but close to this week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,799.75 and then at 4,825.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,713.25 and then at 4,684.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 16,500.00 and then at this week’s high of 16,659.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,304.25 and then at 16,200.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded and prices are trending down on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 160 16/32 and then at 161 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 159 16/32 and then at this week’s low of 159 1/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at 130.18.0 and then at this week’s high of 130.24.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 130.03.0 and then at 130.0.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been trading sideways at lower levels for nearly four weeks. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1390 and then at 1.1417. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1292 and then at the December low of 1.1247. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending up on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $77.37 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed in overnight trading. Corn and soybean bulls still have the firm technical advantage, while wheat bulls have faded. Look for trading activity to pick up next week, as the holidays will have passed.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, December 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins, and are at or near their record highs. Look for lower-volume trading the last two days of 2021. Risk aversion is not keen late this week, but neither is risk appetite. The U.S. has just recorded its highest number of Covid cases ever as the Omicron variant rages. Still, the marketplace is viewing Covid as “serious but manageable” given the vaccines and other drugs to battle the virus.

Other “back-burner” matters that traders and investors are monitoring include China’s crackdown on democracy in Taiwan and Russia’s troop buildup on the Ukrainian border. Both situations could quickly escalate into major geopolitical crises.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $76.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is firmer early today. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.529%–up significantly from earlier this week.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday is light and includes the weekly jobless claims report and the Chicago ISM business survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and close to this week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,798.00 and then at 4,825.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,713.25 and then at 4,684.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading and near the record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 16,659.50 and then at the record high of 16,768.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,304.25 and then at 16,200.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up after solid losses posted Wednesday. Bulls are fading and prices are now trending down. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 160 even and then at 160 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 159 1/32 even and then at 158 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at 130.16.0 and then at this week’s high of 130.24.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 130.03.0 and then at 130.0.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been trading sideways at lower levels for nearly four weeks. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1390 and then at 1.1417. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1292 and then at the December low of 1.1247. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending up on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $77.37 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. Bulls have faded this week. Corn and soybean bulls still have the firm technical advantage, while wheat bulls have faded. The speculative shorts (sellers) in the grain futures have likely been mostly squeezed out of their positions over the past couple weeks of price gains. New speculative longs (buyers) have now entered the markets, especially in corn and soybeans. Grain market bulls now need to beware the rest of this week: The bigger fund traders are trying to press the new and weaker long traders out of the market by taking profits on their better-established long positions, amid the thin holiday trading conditions this week. 

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, December 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins, and are at or near their record highs. Lackluster, low-volume trading is featured as the year 2021 winds down. Look for more quiet trading the rest of this week.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil prices slightly down and trading around $75.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early today. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.474%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes advance economic indicators, pending home sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices Tuesday hit a contract and record high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,798.00 and then at 4,825.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,713.25 and then at 4,684.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading and near the record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 16,659.50 and then at the record high of 16,768.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,304.25 and then at 16,200.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 160 28/32 and then at this week’s high of 161 11/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 160 even and then at 159 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at this week’s high of 130.24.5 and then at 130.28.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 130.13.0 and then at 130.7.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been trading sideways at lower levels for nearly four weeks. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the December high of 1.1388 and then at 1.1417. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1292 and then at the December low of 1.1247. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending up on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $76.92 and then at $77.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were weaker in overnight trading. Bulls have faded this week. Corn and soybean bulls still have good technical power, while wheat bulls have faded. The speculative shorts (sellers) in the grain futures have likely been mostly squeezed out of their positions over the past couple weeks of price gains. New speculative longs (buyers) have now entered the markets, especially in corn and soybeans. Grain market bulls now need to beware the rest of this week: The bigger fund traders are trying to press the new and weaker long traders out of the market (as seen Tuesday) by taking profits on their better-established long positions, amid the thin holiday trading conditions this week. 

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, December 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins, and are at or near their record highs. Traders and investors continue to exhibit general “risk-on” attitudes that are bullish for the stock markets. The Omicron strain of the coronavirus is proving to produce less serious illness than the other strains, while new vaccines and therapeutics are rolling out to battle the virus. “Serious but manageable” appears to be how the marketplace is viewing the matter. The U.S. Center for Disease Control has just cut in half the quarantine time for those exposed to the virus.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $76.85 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly up early today. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.472%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store sales reports, the monthly house price index, the S&P Case-Shiller home price indexes, and the Richmond Fed business survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,797.25 and then at 4,825.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 4,713.25 and then at 4,684.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and near the record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the record high of 16,768.00 and then at 16,900.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,500.00 and then at Monday’s low of 16,304.25. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 161 even and then at 161 18/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 160 11/32 and then at 160 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 130.21.5 and then at 130.26.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 130.13.0 and then at 130.7.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been trading sideways at lower levels for nearly four weeks. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the December high of 1.1388 and then at 1.1417. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1300 and then at the December low of 1.1247. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a four-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $77.50 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $75.53 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed in overnight trading. Corn and soybean bulls have good technical power, while wheat lags. The speculative shorts (sellers) in the grain futures have now likely been mostly squeezed out of their positions over the past couple weeks of price gains. New speculative longs (buyers) have now entered the markets, especially in corn and soybeans. Grain market bulls now need to beware the rest of this week: The bigger fund traders may try to press the new and weaker long traders out of the market by taking profits on their better-established long positions, amid the thin holiday trading conditions this week. 

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff