Daily Morning Report

Monday, January 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk aversion is not keen early this week, but neither is their risk appetite. Rising bond yields amid tighter monetary policies from major central banks of the world are giving the marketplace pause. Last week the Federal Reserve suggested it will raise U.S. interest rates three times in 2022, in order to curb rising inflation that is becoming more problematic.

The U.S. data point of the week will be Wednesday’s consumer price index report for December, which is expected to come in at up 7.1%, year-on-year.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices slightly lower and trading around $78.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is firmer early today. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.795%, which a pandemic era high.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index and monthly wholesale trade.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 4,650.00 and then at 4,625.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Resistance for active traders is seen at 4,700.00 and then at 4,725.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and hit a 2.5-month low in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,669.00 and then at 15,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,400.00 and then at 15,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract low overnight. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending lower for five weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 156 even and then at 156 12/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 154 19/32 and then at 154 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady and hit a contact low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 128.24.0 and then at 129.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 127.30.0 and then at 127.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1376 and then at the December high of 1.1403. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.1287 and then at 1.1247. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $79.45 and then at last week’s high of $80.47. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $78.00 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. The corn and soybean bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, but wheat prices are trending lower on the daily bar charts. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, January 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Marketplace attention is on Friday morning’s U.S. employment situation report for December, which is expected to see its key non-farm payrolls component show a rise of 425,000 after a rise of 210,000 in the November report. The overall unemployment rate is seen at 4.1% in December compared to 4.2% reported in the November report. Look for higher markets volatility if the non-farm jobs number is a big miss, which has occurred in recent months.

In overnight news, the Euro zone’s consumer price index for December came in at up 5.0%, year-on-year, versus a reading of up 4.9% in November and expectations for a rise of 4.7%. The December number is a record high inflation rate for the Euro zone.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices higher, at a two-month high and trading around $80.15 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker early today. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.733%. U.S. bond yields have been on the rise for three weeks and have taken a big jump this week.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the consumer credit report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,725.00 and then at 4,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,662.00 and then at 4,650.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 15,895.75 and then at 16,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,598.50 and then at 15,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up on short covering after hitting a contract low Thursday. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid this week’s downdraft in prices. Prices have been trending lower for four weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 156 20/32 and then at 157 even. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 155 15/32 and then at 155 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up on short covering after hitting a contract low Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 129.00.0 and then at 129.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 128.14.0 and then at 128.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Not much new. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the December high of 1.1403 and then at the December high of 1.1417. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1287 and then at 1.1247. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a two-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $80.47 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $79.00 and then at $78.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, amid some keener risk aversion in the marketplace late this week. The corn and soybean bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, but wheat prices are still trending lower on the daily bar charts. Look for the rising inflation worries to ultimately be bullish for the grain futures markets.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you. Jim Wyckof

Thursday, January 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins, after Wednesday’s strong sell off that came in the wake of the afternoon release of the FOMC minutes from the Federal Reserve. The Fed minutes indicated a “very tight” U.S. job market and rising inflation might require the central bank to raise interest rates even sooner than many already expected, and begin reducing its overall asset balance sheet. The minutes suggested inflationary concerns outweigh the economic risks posed by the rampant Omicron variant of the coronavirus. The probability that the Fed will raise interest rates in March rose to greater than 70%, according to the Fed funds futures market.

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.732%. U.S. bond yields have been on the rise for three weeks and have taken a big jump this week, including after the hawkish FOMC minutes. For perspective, the German 10-year bond (bund) is presently yielding -0.096% and the U.K. 10-year bond (gilt) yield is trading at 1.148%.

Gold prices dropped sharply overnight, in the wake of the FOMC minutes. Rising U.S. interest rates as evidenced by rising U.S. Treasury yields are bullish for the U.S. dollar. Gold and the greenback many times move in the opposite direction on a daily basis. However, the U.S. dollar index has shown little reaction to the Fed minutes.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices higher, at a seven-week high and trading around $79.25 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly up early today.

Attention will soon turn to Friday’s U.S. employment situation report for December, which is expected to see its key non-farm payrolls component show a rise of 425,000 after a rise of 210,000 in the November report. The overall unemployment rate is seen at 4.1% in December compared to 4.2% reported in the November report.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the U.S. international trade report, the ISM report on business services, the global services PMI, the monthly chain store sales index, and manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading, following Wednesday’s sharp losses. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,725.00 and then at 4,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,668.00 and then at 4,650.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading again. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,813.00 and then at 16,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 15,620.25 and then at 15,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid this week’s downdraft in price. Prices have been trending lower for four weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 156 even and then at the overnight high of 156 20/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 155 17/32 and then at 155 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 129.00.0 and then at 129.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 128.16.0 and then at 128.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the December high of 1.1403 and then at the December high of 1.1417. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1287 and then at 1.1247. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a seven-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $79.37 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $78.00 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, as the bulls are spooked by the hawkish Fed minutes and keener risk aversion today. The corn and soybean bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, but wheat prices are still trending lower on the daily bar charts. Look for the rising inflation worries to ultimately be bullish for the grain futures markets.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, January 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite has receded a bit Wednesday. Omicron is rampant in the U.S. and other nations, which is causing worries the virus could again crimp global economies. There are reports U.S. government lawmakers have discussed another federal pandemic stimulus package for businesses that are still hurting from the economic effects of the virus.

In overnight news, the Euro zone December composite purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 53.3 compared to a forecast for a reading of 53.4 and compares with a November number of 55.4.

The U.S. economic data pace picks up at mid-week, with the FOMC minutes due out this afternoon. Also, the ADP national employment report is released today. Other data out today include the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the U.S. services PMI, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices near steady and trading around $77.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is lower early today. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.65%. U.S. bond yields have been on the rise for three weeks and have taken a big jump this week. Don’t be surprised to see renewed inflation concerns hit the marketplace in the near term and sap more risk appetite, as bond yields are likely to continue to rise.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 4,808.25 and then at 4,835.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,747.50 and then at 4,713.25. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 16,350.00 and then at 16,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,139.50 and then at 16,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on a short-covering bounce. Bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending lower for four weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 157 16/32 and then at 158 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 156 13/32 and then at 156 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 129.19.0 and then at 129.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 129.04.0 and then at 129.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the December high of 1.1403 and then at the December high of 1.1417. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1287 and then at 1.1247. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $77.64 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of $75.70 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Choppy trading this week but the bulls are having the better week, so far. The corn and soybean bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, but wheat prices are still trending lower on the daily bar charts. Look for rising inflation worries to support the grain futures in the near term, or longer.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, January 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings and at or near record highs when the New York day session begins. “Risk-on” is the mantra of most traders and investors early in the new year. This comes despite the Omicron variant of the coronavirus still spreading like wildfire in many countries. The U.S. reported over 1 million new cases on Monday, which is a global record. Ideas of stronger U.S. and global economic growth in 2022, and that coronavirus is serious but manageable are keeping marketplace attitudes mostly upbeat.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices up and trading around $76.65 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher again early today. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.644%. U.S. bond yields have been on the rise for three weeks and have taken a big jump this week. Don’t be surprised to see renewed inflation concerns hit the marketplace in the near term and sap risk appetite, as bond yields are likely to continue to rise.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store sales reports, the ISM report on business manufacturing, the global manufacturing PMI, and domestic auto industry sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and hit a record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 4,807.50 and then at 4,825.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 4,747.50 and then at 4,713.25. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 16,659.50 and then at the record high of 16,768.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 16,292.00 and then at 12,145.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending lower for four weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 158 2/32 and then at 159 even. Shorter-term support lies at the Monday’s low of 157 16/32 and then at 157 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a six-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 129.19.0 and then at 129.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 129.06.0 and then at 129.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1350 and then at the December high of 1.1403. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1247 and then at the November low of 1.1221. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the December high of $77.44 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $74.27 and then at $73.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Choppy trading early this week. The corn and soybean bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, but wheat bears have momentum as prices are now trending lower on the daily bar charts.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff