The U.S. stock indexes once again have sold off amid keener risk aversion in the marketplace to start the holiday-shortened trading week. The e-mini S&P stock index futures just last week hit a new contract and record high. But now a price uptrend line on the daily bar chart has been negated to suggest a market top is in place. The recent higher volatility at higher price levels also favors the bears and is suggestive of a topping process in a market. Stay tuned!
Daily Morning Report
Keener risk aversion Monday sinks stocks
Monday, December 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly lower in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly lower openings when the New York day session begins. It’s a risk-off trading day in the marketplace to begin a Christmas-holiday-shortened trading week Monday. The coronavirus pandemic just won’t go away and is raging in several European countries, which is causing fresh business and travel restrictions. The Omicron strain is also surging in parts of the U.S. right as the holiday season approaches.
Also a negative for the U.S. markets is the blockage of the Biden administration’s $1.7 trillion Build Back Better spending program by Sen. Joe Manchin. Many analysts are saying Biden’s big plan is dead in the water now—dealing a huge blow to Biden. Some economists are already dialing back U.S. economic growth projections for 2022.
Pressuring Asian shares overnight is news that another China property firm is in trouble. Reports said the Kaisa firm has announced it defaulted on several U.S. dollar-denominated bonds. The developer is in discussions with creditors regarding a restructuring plan. The bigger troubled China property developer, Evergrande, has had two land parcels in Chengdu reclaimed by local government without compensation, said reports. The Asian markets got little help from China’s central bank cutting its one-year loan prime rate, in a move to shore up the world’s second-largest economy.
The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil prices solidly lower on the pandemic worries, and trading around $68.20 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly lower early today. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.387%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes leading economic indicators.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,600.000 and then at the overnight high of 4,621.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,526.25 and then at 4,500.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly lower and hit a nearly two-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,851.75 and then at 16,000.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 15,503.00 and then at 15,350.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 163 19/32 and then at 164 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 162 13/32 and then at 162 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a three-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131.19.0 and then at 131.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Friday’s low of 130.30.5 and then at 130.26.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been trading sideways at lower levels for nearly four weeks. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day below with the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1350 and then at the December high of 1.1388. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the December low of 1.1247 and then at the November low of 1.1221. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading but up from overnight lows. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $70.00 and then at $71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $66.84 and then at $66.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were lower in overnight trading, as keen risk aversion in the marketplace is squelching the grain market bulls. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. The corn and wheat market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, while the soybean bulls now have the slight technical edge.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Equities bulls pull in their horns late this week.
Friday, December 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly lower in overnight
trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker
openings when the New York day session begins. Today is the
quarterly triple- witching phenomenon–the simultaneous
expiration of stock options, index options and index
futures. These days can cause higher volatility. The stock
market bulls late this week have quickly pulled in their
horns. It seems traders and investors have pivoted after
the U.S. stock indexes posted strong gains in the immediate
aftermath of the FOMC meeting Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday’s and Friday’s price action in the stock markets
suggest traders and investors have realized they are now
staring down the double-barrel shotgun of rising interest
rates/inflation and a resurging coronavirus that threatens
to again crimp global economic growth. It could be that
other major central banks moving to tighten their monetary
policies or signaling their intent to do so, shortly after
the Wednesday FOMC meeting pushed traders and investors
into risk-averse postures.
Gold prices surged to a nearly three-week high Friday,
above $1,800.00, on safe-haven demand and as traders seek
out the metals as an inflation hedge.
In overnight news, the Euro zone reported its November
consumer price index up 0.4% from October and up 4.9%,
year-on-year.
The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil prices
lower and trading around $71.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar
index is slightly higher today. Meantime, the yield on the
U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.429%.
There is no major U.S. economic data due for release today.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early
U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,668.00 and
then at 4,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the
overnight low of 4,634.50 and then at this week’s low of
4,596.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels.
Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly lower and
hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day
average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of
15,897.50 and then at 16,000.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 15,676.75 and then
at the December low of 15,547.25. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S.
trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
this week’s high of 162 23/32 and then at 163 even. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
support lies at the overnight low of 161 29/32 and then at
161 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S.
trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the
December high of 131.16.0 and then at 131.20.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 130.30.5 and
then at 130.26.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S.
trading. Bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. However, prices have been trading
sideways at lower levels for three week. The shorter-term
moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as
the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro
are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-
term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1388 and
then at 1.1417. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1300 and then at
this week’s low of 1.1247. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The
shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the
4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow
stochastics) are neutral to beaerish early today. Look for
buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the
overnight high of $72.26 and then at last week’s high of
$73.34. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
$70.00 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were steady to firmer in overnight
trading. Risk aversion in the marketplace Friday will
squelch the grain market bulls. The corn and wheat market
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, while
the soybean bears have the edge.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
- Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
S&P futures bulls restart price uptrend
HTML clipboard The U.S. stock indexes once again have shown their bullish resilience and have rebounded from a steep downside correction. The e-mini S&P stock index futures have hit a new contract and record high, and importantly have restarted a price uptrend on the daily bar chart–to suggest more upside is likely in the near term. Stay tuned!
Risk appetite robust after FOMC
Thursday, December 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly up in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly higher openings when the New York day session begins, including the S&P 500 hitting a new record high overnight. Risk appetite is more robust late this week.
Traders and investors Thursday are still digesting the U.S. Federal Reserve FOMC meeting results. The FOMC statement somewhat surprisingly said three interest rate increases are likely in 2022, and that U.S. inflation is rising but suggested it will back off in the coming months. The FOMC is accelerating its monthly asset purchases tapering, which will end in March. The marketplace correctly expected a hawkish lean from the FOMC, but the better clarity on timing and actions of the Fed appeared to assuage traders of many markets, as evidenced by the rally in U.S. stock indexes, stable bond yields and a weaker U.S. dollar index.
Now, the marketplace is awaiting the results of today’s European Central Bank and Bank of England monetary policy meetings. The BOE just announced it is raising its main interest rate by 15 basis points (0.15%).
The pandemic never seems to stray too far from the front burner of the marketplace. Bloomberg today reports “the lockdown mentality turning London into a ghost town is starting to feel like the real thing as Europe resurrects stiff border controls and another Christmas looks set to be lost to the virus.”
The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $72.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker early today but still not far below its recent high. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.434%.
Another busy day for U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, new residential construction, industrial production and capacity utilization, the U.S. flash services and manufacturing PMIs, and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly higher and hit a contract and record high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,750.00 and then at 4,775.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,697.00 and then at 4,650.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 16,500.00 and then at 16,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 16,277.25 and then at 16,100.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 162 15/32 and then at this week’s high of 162 23/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at Wednesday’s low of 161 9/32 and then at this week’s low of 160 30/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at this week’s high of 130.30.5 and then at 131.05.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 130.11.5 and then at this week’s low of 130.07.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been trading sideways at lower levels for three week. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1351 and then at 1.1382. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1247 and then at the November low of 1.1221. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $72.11 and then at last week’s high of $73.34. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $71.00 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were mixed in overnight trading. Not much new this week in subdued, pre-holiday trading in the grains. Lower price action Wednesday did dent the bulls, especially in wheat. The corn and wheat market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, while the soybean bears have the edge. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
FOMC decision on deck Wed.
Wednesday, December 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The markets are pausing at mid-week, as all of the major central banks hold monetary policy meetings yet this week. The highly anticipated Federal Reserve FOMC meeting that began Tuesday morning ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The FOMC is expected to announce the acceleration of asset purchases tapering, so the Fed can raise interest rates sooner, as the U.S. now has the hottest inflation in nearly 40 years. Specifically, the FOMC is expected to announce it will accelerate tapering asset purchases to $30 billion a month to wind the program down by March. Many analysts and economists believe two U.S. interest rate hikes will occur in 2022.
In other overnight news there was a stark assessment of the Covid virus and resulting supply chain disruptions heading into the new year. Broker SP Angel in an email dispatch today warned that “we expect the highly transmissible Omicron virus to significantly disrupt supply chains through Q1 next year. Each new dominant variant passes faster and more effectively than the last by their very definition, with Omicron as the latest and most complex variant to take over. While Omicron may prove to be a milder and less deadly virus it is still making people sick and it still takes time / weeks to recover. …We expect ongoing mine disruption to further hit metals production, exacerbating supply / demand deficits and lowering already low LME and SHFE warehouse stock levels.” Other major industries may suffer the same fate in the coming months.
The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $69.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is a bit weaker early today. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.429%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release on a busy Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the Empire State manufacturing survey, retail sales, import and export prices, manufacturing and trade inventories, the NAHB housing market index, Treasury international capital data and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,650.00 and then at Tuesday’s high of 4,676.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,596.25 and then at 4,550.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 16,000.00 and then at Tuesday’s high of 16,132.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,734.00 and then at the December low of 15,547.25. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 162 23/32 and then at 163 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at Tuesday’s low of 161 16/32 and then at this week’s low of 160 30/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at this week’s high of 130.30.5 and then at 131.05.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 130.07.5 and then at 130.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1351 and then at 1.1382. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the December low of 1.1257 and then at the November low of 1.1221. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of $72.03 and then at last week’s high of $73.34. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were mixed to lower in overnight trading. Not much new in subdued, pre-holiday trading in the grains. The wheat and corn market bulls have the near-term technical advantage, while the soybean bears have the slight edge. However, meal futures prices are in a solid rally mode and that strongly suggests soybeans do not have any significant downside potential.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff