Daily Morning Report

Monday, December 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight in quieter, post-holiday trading. Some markets overseas remained closed for the Christmas holiday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

Risk appetite is modestly upbeat to start the last week of 2021. There are still coronavirus worries, but there are also vaccines and drugs coming on line to battle the virus. One market analyst termed the marketplace’s present attitude regarding the coronavirus battle, “serious but manageable.”

Simmering on the back burner of the marketplace is a potential geopolitical crisis, as Russia’s troop buildup on the Ukrainian border has alarmed the U.S. and Europe. 

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $73.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly up early today. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.481%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below the recent contract and record high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,743.25 and then at 4,775.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 4,684.25 and then at 4,650.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 16,457.00 and then at 16,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,145.25 and then at 16,000.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 161 even and then at 161 18/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 160 11/32 and then at 160 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130.19.5 and then at 130.26.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 130.10.0 and then at 130.7.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been trading sideways at lower levels for nearly four weeks. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the December high of 1.1388 and then at 1.1417. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1300 and then at the December low of 1.1247. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $73.50 and then at the December high of $73.95. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.00 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher in overnight trading. The grain market bulls have strength and prices may trend sideways to higher into the new year, and maybe longer. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, December 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Once again, the U.S. stock index bulls have shown keen resilience by rallying their markets after steep sell offs. Risk appetite has up-ticked significantly from the beginning of the week. The news on the Omicron variant of the coronavirus has become more upbeat as the week progressed—from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approving a pill that greatly reduces the effects of the virus, to studies showing Omicron is not as potent as the other strains, to early reports Omicron will run its course rapidly.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil prices slightly higher and trading around $73.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is near steady early today. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.469%.

The U.S. data point of the week will be today’s report on personal income and outlays for November. The closely watched PCE price index component of the report is expected to be up 0.6% from October and up 5.0%, year-on-year. If this inflation data runs hot, markets may react.

Look for quieter trading and lower volumes today, as many traders shut down their screens and turn their attention to the Christmas holiday. Markets are closed on Friday.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, personal income and outlays, durable goods orders, new residential sales, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below the recent contract and record high. Once again, bulls have shown keen resilience and have regained the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,743.25 and then at 4,775.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 4,650.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of 4,622.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 16,300.00 and then at 16,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,100.00 and then at 16,000.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 161 18/32 and then at 162 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 160 14/32 and then at 160 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130.26.0 and then at 131.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 130.16.0 and then at 130.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been trading sideways at lower levels for nearly four weeks. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the December high of 1.1388 and then at 1.1417. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the December low of 1.1247 and then at the November low of 1.1221. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and hit a four-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $74.00 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.00 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed to weaker in overnight trading, on mild corrective pullbacks after solid gains posted this week. The grain market bulls have strength and prices may trend sideways to higher into the new year, and maybe longer. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, December 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. It’s been a choppy trading week so far and the U.S. stock indexes appear to be pausing at mid-week. There is less risk aversion in the market place, at least for now. There is a bigger slate of U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday that could impact markets. However, trading activity in many markets is likely to wane as the trading session progresses today, ahead of the Christmas holiday. Markets are closed on Friday.

President Biden on Tuesday afternoon said he and Sen. Joe Manchin will work on getting a U.S. spending bill complete, after Manchin nixed the latest White House proposal. That has helped to assuage the marketplace.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil prices slightly higher and trading around $71.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker early today. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.474%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the Chicago Fed national activity index, the third estimate of third-quarter GDP, existing home sales, the consumer confidence index, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,668.00 and then at 4,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 4,600.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 4,565.75. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 16,000.00 and then at 16,100.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 15,881.00 and then at 15,750.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 161 15/32 and then at 162 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 160 14/32 and then at 160 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130.28.5 and then at 131.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 130.16.0 and then at 130.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are up in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been trading sideways at lower levels for nearly four weeks. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1350 and then at the December high of 1.1388. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the December low of 1.1247 and then at the November low of 1.1221. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $72.50 and then at the December high of $73.13. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were firmer in overnight trading, after solid gains Tuesday. Bulls are gaining momentum. The grain market bulls now have strength and prices may trend sideways to higher into the new year, and maybe longer.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, December 21–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The global stock indexes are posting corrective bounces after Monday’s strong losses that were due mostly to worries about the pandemic starting to surge again. A look at the daily bar charts for the Nasdaq and S&P futures shows higher daily price volatility at higher price levels. That’s one warning signal of a topping process in a market and favors the bearish camp. Look for more daily increased price volatility in the near term, which could be amplified even more by thin holiday trading volumes in the coming days.

Part of the bounce-back in stock indexes Tuesday comes from reports President Biden and Sen. Joe Manchin held a phone conversation, which the White House believes could keep the door open to reviving talks on Biden’s spending bill. Presently, traders and investors are looking at the bright side of the matter, as both sides are still talking.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil prices higher on a corrective bounce from Monday’s steep losses, and trading around $69.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly lower early today. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.429%. For perspective, the 10-year German bond (bund) sees its yield at -0.362% and the 10-year U.K. bond (gilt) is fetching 0.798%. The premium the U.S. 10-year note yield is holding to most of its major counterparts is a main reason for the U.S. dollar’s appreciation in recent months. In fact, one report last week said many European banks are taking their excess Euros and buying U.S. Treasuries, which means they have to buy greenbacks with their Euros to do such—meaning even more dollar appreciation.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is again light and includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail reports.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading, on a corrective bounce from Monday’s pressure. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 4,621.500 and then at 4,650.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,565.75 and then at Monday’s low of 4,520.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading, on a corrective bounce. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 15,851.75 and then at 16,000.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 15,670.00 and then at Monday’s low of 15,492.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 162 3/32 and then at 162 13/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 161 13/32 and then at 161 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a three-month high Monday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131.08.0 and then at this week’s high of 131.19.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 130.26.0 and then at 130.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been trading sideways at lower levels for nearly four weeks. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day below with the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1350 and then at the December high of 1.1388. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the December low of 1.1247 and then at the November low of 1.1221. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading on a corrective bounce from Monday’s sharp losses. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $71.00 and then at $72.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $68.56 and then at $67.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mostly weaker in overnight trading. Importantly, the grain markets showed resilience on Monday, in the face of mostly bearish outside markets and keener risk aversion. If the big speculative funds wanted to lean on the short side of the grains, Monday was the day to do it—but they did not. Such suggests the grain markets have underlying strength and that prices may trend sideways to higher into the new year, and maybe longer. The corn, soybeans and wheat market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff