Daily Morning Report

Friday, December 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to weaker openings when the New York day session begins. It’s been a choppy trading week for the U.S. stock indexes, but they are now in near-term price downtrends, to suggest market tops are in place. There remains marketplace uncertainty regarding the new Omicron strain of the coronavirus. The variant has prompted many countries to impose travel restrictions. Look for continued wobbly trading in the stock market until much more is known about Omicron.

Traders and investors are awaiting the Friday morning U.S. employment situation report for November from the Labor Department—arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month. The key non-farm payrolls figure is expected to come in at up 573,000 compared to a rise of 531,000 in October.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $68.00 a barrel, after hitting a three-month low of $64.43 on Tuesday. The OPEC cartel agreed Thursday to pump more oil starting in January, but left the door open to change its mind if the global economic conditions change. The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.427%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. services PMI, the ISM report on business services, the global services PMI, and manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded badly recently to suggest a near-term market top is in place. Prices are now trending lower on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,600.00 and then at 4,650.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,543.75 and then at this week’s low of 4,497.75. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in lower U.S. trading. Prices Thursday hit a six-week low to suggest a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 16,066.25 and then at 16,150.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,762.75 and then at 15,600.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 163 4/32 and then at 163 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 162 6/32 and then at 161 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at 131.00.0 and then at this week’s high of 131.10.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 130.17.0 and then at 130.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1417 and then at 1.1450. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1271 and then at the November low of 1.1221. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage as prices are trending lower. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $68.71 and then at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $66.44 and then at $65.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed in overnight trading. There is less risk aversion in the marketplace late this week and that has given the grain market bulls some strength. However, as long as some Omicron uncertainty exists in the general marketplace, gains in the grains will likely be constrained. Grain traders will continue to look to the key outside markets for direction—crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, December 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes overnight recovered some of their late-Wednesday losses that came after news that a case of Omicron was discovered in California. That news was not surprising but still rattled the stock market. Overnight news that the World Health Organization said vaccinations would offer at least some protection against the new strain helped assuage worries on the matter. Also, reports say Omicron is no more severe than the other coronavirus strains and may be milder. However, by no means has the marketplace reached calm on the matter. Don’t be surprised to see more markets volatility in the near term as more becomes known about Omicron.

In overnight news, the Euro zone reported its October producer price index at up 5.4% from September and up 21.9%, year-on-year. Those hot numbers were even hotter than the elevated PPI numbers that were forecast.

The Bank of America staff of commodity market analysts has forecast the price of Brent crude oil to possibly reach $120 a barrel by the middle of next year. Prices are trading around $70.00 at present. Meantime, OPEC officials said Wednesday that oil markets face a surplus in the first quarter of next year. If I have learned one thing in being in the commodity markets news and analysis business for nearly 40 years, it’s that forecasting future price levels for a commodity is mostly an exercise in futility that sets the prognosticating analysts up for future embarrassment. Still, many of us do it out of being compelled or even required to do so.

The key “outside markets” see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $66.75 a barrel, after hitting a three-month low of $64.43 on Tuesday. The U.S. dollar index is slightly lower. Meantime, The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.492%.

The marketplace is awaiting the U.S. employment situation report for November from the Labor Department on Friday morning. The key non-farm payrolls figure is expected to come in at up 573,000 compared to a rise of 531,000 in October.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, and the monthly retail chain sales index. Several Federal Reserve officials are also scheduled to speak today.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on a corrective bounce after hitting a six-week low on Wednesday. Bulls have faded badly recently to suggest a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,552.00 and then at 4,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,508.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,497.75. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices Wednesday hit a six-week low to suggest a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 16,000.00 and then at 16,150.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,825.25 and then at 15,700.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 163 1/32 and then at 163 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 162 4/32 and then at 161 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131.04.0 and then at this week’s high of 131.10.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 130.19.0 and then at 130.12.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1417 and then at 1.1450. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1271 and then at the November low of 1.1221. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage as prices are trending lower. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $67.36 and then at $68.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $64.43 and then at $64.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher in overnight trading on more corrective buying after strong losses posted Tuesday. There is less risk aversion in the marketplace late this week and that is giving the grain market bulls some strength. However, as long as some Omicron uncertainty exists in the general marketplace, gains in the grains will likely be constrained. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, December 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to solidly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Trading has been choppy in the stock indexes this week, amid the new uncertainty about the Omicron coronavirus strain.

In what may have been one of the most important trading days of the year, or even beyond, Tuesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stunned the marketplace by suggesting a tighter U.S. monetary policy is necessary to keep rising inflation at bay and to keep supply chains moving along, especially if the new Omicron strain spreads rapidly worldwide. Powell also admitted that what the Fed had termed “transitory” inflation was incorrect and the central bank would abandon the term. Powell seemed less concerned about the demand side of economies during any new business and public lockdowns that might come from a surge in the Omicron strain. He also implied that if new virus strains continue to develop, new monetary stimulus programs would have limited positive impacts on economies. Many market watchers thought the Federal Reserve would be forced to dial back its recently announced tapering of its bond-buying program if Omicron started to rage.  After Powell’s remarks Tuesday, financial markets estimated a 50-50 chance the Fed will raise U.S. interest rates as early as May of 2022. Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speak in front of the U.S. House of Representatives today.

The U.S. stock market Tuesday sold off sharply on Powell’s comments. For the past dozen years the U.S. stock market has been boosted by the high levels of liquidity in financial markets, due to monetary policy stimulus. If the global central banks take away the proverbial punch bowl from traders and investors, one has to wonder if the equities markets can continue their years-long trek higher.

What metals traders seemed most concerned about Tuesday was a tighter U.S. monetary policy halting rising inflation sooner rather than later. Remember that hard assets, including metals, have been a historical hedge against rising inflation. Importantly, the U.S. Treasury market Tuesday saw falling yields on the longer-dated maturities, which suggests bond market traders do indeed believe the Fed can successfully tamp down rising inflation in the coming months.

In other overnight news, the Paris-based OECD think tank forecast rising global inflation in 2022, including predicting U.S. annual inflation at 4.4% and Euro zone inflation at 2.7%. Both of those numbers are above the OECD’s September forecasts.

The key “outside markets” see Nymex crude oil prices solidly higher and trading around $69.00 a barrel, after hitting a three-month low of $64.43 on Tuesday. There is an OPEC meeting today that will be closely monitored. The U.S. dollar index is slightly lower. Meantime, The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.492%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business manufacturing, the global manufacturing PMI, construction spending, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, domestic auto industry sales and the Fed’s beige book.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded badly recently to suggest a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,669.75 and then at 4,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,557.00 and then at 4,525.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 16,456.25 and then at 16,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 16,182.50 and then at last week’s low of 15,988.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 163 15/32 and then at the November high of 164 1/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 162 21/32 and then at Tuesday’s low of 162 2/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131.15.0 and then at 131.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 130.30.5 and then at 130.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1417 and then at 1.1450. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1271 and then at the November low of 1.1221. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are sharply higher in early U.S. trading, on corrective bounce after hitting a three-month low Tuesday. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $70.00 and then at Tuesday’s high of $71.22. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $68.00 and then at the overnight low of $66.20. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher in overnight trading on corrective bounces from strong losses posted Tuesday. There is less risk aversion in the marketplace at mid-week and that is giving the grain market bulls some strength. However, as long as the Omicron uncertainty persists in the general marketplace, gains in the grains will likely be limited.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, November 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to lower in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to lower openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion is keener Tuesday as there are still major unknowns regarding the new Omicron strain of the coronavirus, including how effective current vaccines are at fighting it. Regeneron Tuesday morning said its antibody drug is less effective on the Omicron strain. Moderna said Omicron’s many mutations suggest a new vaccine will be needed.

Traders and investors will closely monitor comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in their testimony to the Senate Banking Committee today—especially in light of the new Omicron scare. The new coronavirus strain is prompting new worries about major economies once again being crimped by business lockdowns and reduced consumer demand. The Federal Reserve could be forced to dial back its recently announced tapering of its bond-buying program, due to concerns about another slowdown in the U.S. economy if Omicron surges in the U.S.

Gold and U.S. Treasuries are benefiting Tuesday from safe-haven demand.

In other overnight news, the Euro zone’s consumer price index for November came in hot, at up 4.9% year-on-year, for the highest reading in 30 years. Energy prices were up 27.4%, year-on-year.

The key “outside markets” see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $68.30 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly lower. Meantime, The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.443%, which is well down from the 1.529% reading Monday.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail sales reports, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, the ISM Chicago business survey, and the consumer confidence index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded to suggest a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,650.00 and then at Monday’s high of 4,669.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,577.25 and then at 4,550.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 16,441.00 and then at 16,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,150.00 and then at last week’s low of 15,988.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading and hit a three-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 163 21/32 and then at the November high of 164 1/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 162 2/32 and then at this week’s low of 161 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher and hit a seven-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 132.01.5 and then at 132.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 131.16.0 and then at 131.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are solidly higher in early U.S. trading on short covering. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1406 and then at 1.1450. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1319 and then at Monday’s low of 1.1292. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are sharply lower and hit a 2.5-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $70.00 and then at the overnight high of $71.22. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $67.06 and then at $66.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are solidly lower in overnight trading. There is again keener risk aversion in the marketplace that is pressuring the raw commodity market sector, including the grains. As long as the uncertainty persists in the general marketplace, grains will likely be under selling pressure.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff