The Nymex crude oil futures market has made a strong recovery from the December spike low and has also formed a bullish V-Bottom reversal pattern that suggests a market bottom is in place. The market has recently paused, which is not bearish but does suggest the crude oil market will trade in a choppy and sideways fashion in the near term. Stay tuned!
Daily Morning Report
U.S. inflation report, FOMC on Deck Tuesday
Tuesday, December 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading, with European shares mostly up and Asian shares mostly down. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Focus of the marketplace is on all the major central banks holding monetary policy meetings this week. The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The FOMC is expected to announce the acceleration of asset purchases tapering as the U.S. now has the hottest inflation in nearly 40 years.
Speaking of inflation, traders will closely examine today’s U.S. producer price index report for November, which is expected to come in at up 0.5% from October.
The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil prices slightly lower and trading around $71.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker early today. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.434%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the NFIB small business index, the weekly chain store sales index and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, and the producer price index.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,676.75 and then at 4,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 4,625.00 and then at 4,600.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 16,132.75 and then at 16,300.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,900.00 and then at 15,800.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 162 23/32 and then at 163 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 162 even and then at 161 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at this week’s high of 130.30.5 and then at 131.05.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 130.20.0 and then at 130.15.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1382 and then at 1.1417. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1285 and then at the December low of 1.1257. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $73.34 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were mixed to lower in overnight trading. Not much new in subdued, pre-holiday trading in the grains. The wheat market bulls have faded recently, while the corn bulls have some strength and the soybean bulls are languishing in a sideways market mode.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Quieter start to a busy data week
Monday, December 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward mildly higher openings when the New York day session begins. It’s a quieter start to the trading week. However, activity will certainly pick up as the week progresses as all the major central banks hold monetary policy meetings this week. The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The FOMC is expected to announce the acceleration of asset purchases tapering on Wednesday as the U.S. faces the hottest inflation in nearly 40 years. For the European Central Bank meeting Thursday, little change in monetary policy is expected.
Risk appetite remains upbeat with just over two weeks before the new year begins. The new Omicron variant of the coronavirus appears to be much less than the worst-case scenario traders and investors were worried about two weeks ago. That has allowed stock markets to rally on bond yields to rise.
The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil prices slightly lower and trading around $71.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher early today. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.492%.
There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and closed to the contract and record high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,735.00 and then at 4,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 4,657.00 and then at 4,625.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 16,438.75 and then at 16,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 16,322.50 and then at 16,200.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 162 1/32 and then at 162 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 160 30/32 and then at last week’s low of 160 12/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 130.23.0 and then at 131.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 130.07.5 and then at last week’s low of 129.31.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1346 and then at last week’s high of 1.1382. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the December low of 1.1257 and then at the November low of 1.1221. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $73.34 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $71.00 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were lower in overnight trading. The wheat market bulls have faded badly the past week, while the corn bulls have gained some strength and the soybean bulls are languishing in a sideways market mode. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
U.S. dollar remains strong
The U.S. dollar index is a basket of six major world currencies weighted against the greenback. See on the daily bar char that the USDX is in a solid price uptrend. The USDX bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage to suggest more upside in the near term, or longer. Stay tuned!
Marketplace awaits U.S. inflation report
Friday, December 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly weaker in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite has grown markedly this week, but after strong gains in the U.S. stock indexes earlier this week, the markets are seeing some normal pausing action late this week. It appears the Omicron variant has left center stage of the marketplace. However, as the holidays approach, the Delta strain of the coronavirus is surging in parts of the U.S.
Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s U.S. data point of the week: the November consumer price index report, which is expected to come in up 0.7% from November and up 6.7%, year-on-year. Those numbers, if realized, would be at a nearly 40-year high for U.S. inflation. Federal Reserve officials will be watching the CPI report very closely, ahead of their FOMC monetary-policy-setting meeting next week. The Fed has recently done an “about-face” on inflation prospects—going from saying it’s only transitory to new believing it’s not just temporary and may even become problematic.
The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $71.65 a barrel. Crude oil bulls have also had a very good week. The U.S. dollar index is higher early today. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.515%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes real earnings, the monthly Treasury budget statement and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. It’s been a very good week for the bulls. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,705.00 and then at the contract high of 4,735.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,657.00 and then at 4,625.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have had the better week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 16,438.75 and then at 16,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 16,123.50 and then at 16,000.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 161 14/32 and then at 162 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 160 12/32 and then at 160 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130.13.5 and then at 130.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 129.31.0 and then at 129.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are n neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1350 and then at this week’s high of 1.1382. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1257 and then at the November low of 1.1221. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have had a good week. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $73.34 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. Grain traders will continue to look to the key outside markets for direction—crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes, both of which generally favor the grain market bulls at present. The wheat market bulls have faded badly this week, while the corn bulls have gained strength this week and the soybean bulls are languishing in a sideways market mode.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Routine pullbacks in U.S. stock indexes Thurs.
Thursday, December 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed but mostly firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. It’s been a very good week for the U.S. stock index bulls and Thursday sees a normal corrective pullback from the strong gains.
Traders are looking ahead to the U.S. data point of the week, Friday’s November consumer price index report, which is expected to come in up 0.7% from November and be up 6.7%, year-on-year.
China inflation data, released overnight, showed its producer price index up 12.9%, year-on-year, which was a decline from last month but still hotter than expected.
The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $72.00 a barrel. Crude oil bulls have also had a very good week. The U.S. dollar index is higher. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.494%. U.S. bond yields have risen this week, on ideas of a tighter U.S. monetary policy and stronger U.S. economic growth in the coming months.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday is light and includes the weekly jobless claims report and monthly wholesale trade.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading on a routine downside correction from this week’s strong gains. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,705.00 and then at the contract high of 4,735.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 4,650.00 and then at 4,625.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback from this week’s strong gains. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 16,438.75 and then at 16,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 16,256.25 and then at 16,150.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 161 16/32 and then at 162 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 160 12/32 and then at 160 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 130.24.5 and then at 131.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 129.31.0 and then at 129.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are n neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1382 and then at last week’s high of 1.1417. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1257 and then at the November low of 1.1221. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback from this week’s solid gains. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $73.34 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of $70.91 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were mixed to lower in overnight trading. Grain traders will continue to look to the key outside markets for direction—crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes, both of which generally favor the grain market bulls at present. Traders are awaiting Thursday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report and the weekly USDA export sales report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff