Daily Morning Report

Friday, July 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were flat to narrowly mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins, in typically subdued summertime trading. While the Nasdaq and S&P stock indexes have hit record highs this week, it appears trader and investor enthusiasm may be losing momentum as the new Covid-19 strain is surging in regions of the world, including the U.S. Just when it appeared the pandemic was being tamped down in much of the world, it is flaring up again.

The U.S. data point of the day Friday is the retail sales report for June, seen down 0.4% from May and compares to a decline of 1.3% in May from April.

In other news, the Biden administration is warning U.S. businesses about operating in Hong Kong, amid mainland China’s tightening grip on the city.

Overnight, the Euro zone June consumer price index was reported up 0.3% from May and up 1.9%, year-on-year. Those numbers were in line with market expectations and much tamer than this week’s U.S. consumer price index numbers.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower, while Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $72.00 a barrel. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.324%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes manufacturing and trade inventories, Treasury international capital data and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and not far below this week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,384.50 and then at 4,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,332.50 and then at 4,300.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below this week’s contract and record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract and record high of 14,996.00 and then at 15,100.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,708.25 and then at 14,600.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily chart and bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 164 even and then at the July high of 164 30/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at Thursday’s low of 162 25/32 and then at 162 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 133.28.0 and then at the July high of 134.03.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Thursday’s low of 133.14.0 and then at 133.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 1.1864 and then at this week’s high of 1.1895. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1785 and then at 1.1750. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Thursday’s high of $72.96 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $71.13 and then at the July low of $70.76. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were firmer overnight. Grain market bulls have had a good week. Traders will continue to focus on U.S. Midwest and northern Plains weather forecasts, which for the Corn Belt have turned more bullish as late-July into early August conditions in the Corn Belt are expected to be warmer and drier. The northern Plains remain scorched and the spring wheat crop is in very bad shape. Overall global supply and demand fundamentals in the grains still favor the bullish camp.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, July 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The market place is digesting Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony to a House of Representatives committee on Wednesday. Powell leaned dovish on U.S. monetary policy by saying the Fed is still a ways off on tapering its bond-buying program (quantitative easing). He also said the U.S. central bank still believes rising inflation is only transitory. Powell speaks to a Senate committee today.

In overnight news, China’s economic growth pace slowed in the second quarter, at up 7.9%, year-on-year. That number is still strong by all standards but does hint that China’s strong economic rebound from the pandemic is leveling off. China’s GDP was up 18.3% in the first quarter. China also reported its industrial production rose a higher-than-expected 8.3% in June.

The new strain of Covid-19 continues to surge in some regions of the world, hitting Asia especially hard. This is reviving concerns that hard-hit countries’ economies will again start to suffer. This matter could put cap on global stock market rallies that have seen some major indexes hit record highs.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower, while Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $72.40 a barrel. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.321%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Empire State manufacturing survey, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, import and export prices, and industrial production and capacity utilization.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and not far below Wednesday’s contract and record high. Mild profit taking is featured. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,384.50 and then at 4,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,341.75 and then at 4,320.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below Wednesday’s contract and record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract and record high of 14,996.00 and then at 15,100.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,785.00 and then at 14,700.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily chart and bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 163 20/32 and then at 164 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 162 25/32 and then at 162 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.26.0 and then at the July high of 134.03.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.15.5 and then at 133.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1864 and then at this week’s high of 1.1895. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1785 and then at 1.1750. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $72.96 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $71.68 and then at the July low of $70.76. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mostly lower overnight. Still, grain market bulls have had a good week, so far. Traders will continue to focus on U.S. Midwest and northern Plains weather forecasts, which for the Corn Belt have turned a bit more bullish as late-July into early August conditions in the Corn Belt are now expected to be warmer and drier. The northern Plains remain scorched and the spring wheat crop is in very bad shape. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, July 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward steady to firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The global markets are starting to pay more attention to the new Covid-19 variant that is spreading in some parts of the world, including the U.S., and is beginning to threaten some regional economies.

The market place focus today is on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony to a House of Representatives committee today on U.S. monetary policy and the economy. Traders and investors will be closely parsing Powell’s remarks, especially any comments on inflationary pressures after the U.S. consumer price index on Tuesday was reported at up 5.4% in June, year-on-year, which is the hottest in 13 years.

Speaking of inflation, the U.S. producer price index for June is out this morning and is forecast at up 0.6% from May.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker, while Nymex crude oil prices modestly lower and trading around $74.85 a barrel. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.396%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage application survey, the producer price index, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the Federal Reserve’s beige book.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and not far below Tuesday’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,383.75 and then at 4,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,341.75 and then at 4,320.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below Tuesday’s contract and record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract and record high of 14,994.75 and then at 15,100.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,785.00 and then at 14,700.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is still in place on the daily chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 163 7/32 and then at 163 22/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 161 6/32 and then at 161 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 133.12.0 and then at this week’s high of 133.20.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.30.0 and then at 132.26.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a three-month low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1850 and then at this week’s high of 1.1895. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1785 and then at 1.1750. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $75.52 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $74.00 and then at this week’s low of $73.16. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed to firmer overnight. Grain market bulls have lost their weather market strength as corn and soybean crop conditions have improved markedly in the U.S. However, corn and soybean bulls have made decent recoveries from the recent lows. Spring wheat crops are still in bad shape and that could support the entire wheat market in the near term. Traders will continue to focus on weather forecasts, which are not threatening for most of the U.S. crops.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, July 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins and at or near record highs. The global markets are still not paying serious attention to the new Covid-19 variant that is spreading in some parts of the world and is beginning to threaten some regional economies. Focus this week is on U.S. corporate earnings reports.

The U.S. economic data point of the day is the June consumer price index report, seen up 0.5% from May and up 5.0%, year-on-year. Some U.S. and global inflation readings have been running hot lately and a hotter U.S. CPI reading today would likely impact markets, including pushing bond yields up.

China reported surprisingly strong export data Tuesday. June exports rose 32.2% versus 27.9% in May,  year-on-year and 23.0% forecast. China’s imports in June rose 36.7% versus 51.1% in May and 25% forecast.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher, while Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $74.50 a barrel. The International Energy Agency overnight warned that global oil markets are set to “tighten significantly” unless there is an increase in production. With OPEC and its allies failing to reach agreement on increased output, crude oil inventories are set to fall even more. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.365%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly chain store sales index and the Johnson Redbook retail report, the NFIB small business optimism index, real earnings and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading after poking to a contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight contract high of 4,378.75 and then at 4,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 4,341.75 and then at 4,320.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are up in early U.S. trading and hit a contract and record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract and record high of 14,927.50 and then at 15,000.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 14,785.00 and then at 14,700.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily chart and bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 163 7/32 and then at 163 22/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 162 6/32 and then at 162 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 133.20.5 and then at 133.26.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 133.08.5 and then at 133.06.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.1895 and then at the July high of 1.1911. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1840 and then at the July low of 1.1797. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of $74.93 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $73.16 and then at $72.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed to weaker overnight. Grain market bulls have lost their weather market strength as corn and soybean crop conditions have improved markedly in the U.S. Spring wheat crops are still in bad shape and that could support the entire wheat market in the near term. Traders will continue to focus on weather forecasts, which are not threatening for most of the U.S. crops.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff