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Daily Morning Report

U.S. Treasury yields falling

July 12, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, July 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Focus this week will be on U.S. corporate earnings reports.

A feature in the marketplace recently has been falling U.S. government bond yields amid notions that U.S. and global economic growth has leveled off from the stronger pace seen coming out of the pandemic’s shackles. Such can be extrapolated to easier monetary policies for a longer time from the major world’s major central banks. Adding to concerns about less robust global economic growth is a new strain of Covid-19 that is surging in some parts of the world at the same time vaccinations have tailed off.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde reportedly said a July 22 Governing Council meeting will include a revision of the ECB’s forward guidance. She also said she expects the current asset purchase program to run until “at least” March 2022, due in part to the new Covid strain denting economic growth in the Euro zone. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.336%.

China on Friday eased its monetary policy by lowering is reserve requirement ratio for its banks.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher, while Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $73.35 a barrel.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight contract high of 4,365.25 and then at 4,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 4,325.00 and then at 4,300.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract and record high of 14,883.75 and then at 14,900.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,800.00 and then at 14,700.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily chart and bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 163 22/32 and then at 164 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 162 11/32 and then at 162 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 133.26.0 and then at 134.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 133.10.0 and then at 133.06.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1895 and then at the July high of 1.1911. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 1.1840 and then at the July low of 1.1797. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $74.93 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Friday’s low of $72.72 and then at $72.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mostly firmer overnight. Traders are awaiting this morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. The main focus is on Corn Belt weather that has been wet and more rain is in the forecast. Bears appear to be in the driver’s seat for at least the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Stock markets a bit wobbly late this week

July 9, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, July 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed to firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The stock indexes have become a bit wobbly late this week, on renewed worries about Covid-19 surging in some regions of the world. Also, political tensions between the U.S. and China have ratcheted up this year, with reports saying the U.S. is set to sanction more Chinese companies. Also, the tenor of the marketplace appears to have changed from one of strong economic recoveries igniting rising inflation, to one of stagnating economic recoveries prompting central banks to keep their money policies very accommodative for longer.

Reports Friday say the Biden administration is set to tackle big technology companies that are monopolistic. President Biden will reportedly sign an executive order to loosen the grip of big tech companies.

In other overnight news, China’s inflation readings eased in June, prompting China’s central bank to ease its monetary policy. The People’s Bank of China reduced the reserve ratio requirement by 0.5% to boost lending. China’s consumer price index was reported up 1.1% in June versus a rise of 1.3% in May, year-on-year. The producer price index in June rose 8.8% compared to up 9.0% in May, year-on-year.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker, while Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $73.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.336%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes monthly wholesale trade.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,353.25 and then at 4,380.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,279.25 and then at 4,250.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 14,822.00 and then at the record high of 14,883.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,600.00 and then at this week’s low of 14,540.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower on profit taking after hitting a five-month high Thursday. A price uptrend is still in place on the daily chart and bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 163 22/32 and then at 164 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 162 16/32 and then at 162 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading and seeing profit taking after hitting a 4.5-month high on Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.26.0 and then at 134.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 133.10.0 and then at 133.06.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering. Prices this week hit a three-month low. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1911 and then at 1.1950. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1797 and then at 1.1750. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded this week. A bearish “key reversal” down on the daily bar chart this week is one clue that a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $72.72 and then at $72.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were narrowly mixed overnight. Traders are awaiting this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report. But the main focus is on Corn Belt weather that is wet. Grain market bulls suffered a major blow this week as a weather market fizzled. Don’t be surprised if the big “fund” traders soon set up big short positions in the grains and as the “reflation” trade has also fizzled.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Chart clue crude oil has put in market top

July 8, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Keener risk aversion returned to the marketplace late this week. Featured in the marketplace this week is traders unwinding their “inflation” positions. That means selling commodity markets and buying U.S. Treasuries. Nymex crude oil futures have backed way off the six-year high of $76.98 scored earlier this week. This week’s big losses in crude oil have created a bearish “key reversal” down on the daily bar chart to suggest a market top is in place. Stay tuned!

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Risk aversion returns Thursday

July 8, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, July 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Keener risk aversion has returned to the marketplace late this week. Featured in the marketplace this week is traders unwinding their “inflation” positions. That means selling commodity markets and buying U.S. Treasuries. Nymex crude oil futures are lower today and trading around $71.50 a barrel after hitting a six-year high of $76.98 earlier this week. This week’s big losses in crude oil have created chart clues that suggest a market top is in place. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.253%–near a five-month low. Bond prices and yields move in the opposite direction. In Germany, the 10-year bund yield fell to minus 0.339% Thursday.

Covid-19 deaths worldwide topped 4 million this week and the Delta virus is continuing to spread. The marketplace is once again starting to pay more attention to this matter, after a few months of enjoying not having the pandemic near the front burner. Tokyo is in a near state of emergency in trying to deal with the virus as the intense spotlight of the Olympics is set to shine on Tokyo.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, the monthly chain store sales index and consumer credit.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading and seeing heavy profit taking after hitting a contract and record high Wednesday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,353.25 and then at 4,380.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,280.25 and then at 4,260.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly down in early U.S. trading and seeing profit taking after hitting a contract and record high Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 14,822.00 and then at the record high of 14,883.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 14,569.50 and then at 14,500.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher and hit a five-month high in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily chart and bulls have momentum and the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 165 even and then at 165 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 164 even and then at the overnight low of 163 9/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading and hit a 4.5-month high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 134.03.0 and then at 134.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 133.24.0 and then at the overnight low of 133.16.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering. Prices Wednesday hit a three-month low. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1911 and then at 1.1950. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1797 and then at 1.1750. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded. A bearish “key reversal” down on the daily bar chart this week is one clue that a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $72.36 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $70.76 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mostly higher overnight on corrective bounces after this week’s losses. Grain market bulls have suffered a major blow this week as a weather market quickly fizzled. Very good amounts of rainfall are forecast for the U.S. Corn Belt over the next week—right during the key pollination phase of growth for much of the corn crop. Don’t be surprised if the big “fund” traders this week set up big short positions in the grains and as the “reflation” trade is fading.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Wed. p.m. FOMC minutes awaited

July 7, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, July 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins, with the S&P and Nasdaq at or near record highs. Traders are awaiting Wednesday afternoon’s release of the minutes of the June FOMC meeting, hoping for clues on the timing of the Fed’s policy moves that are likely to be gradual tightening of monetary policy in the coming months. There are also growing ideas that the FOMC minutes this afternoon may not be as hawkish as some market watchers expect.

In overnight news, the European Union forecast Euro zone inflation in 2021 at 1.9% and in 2022 at 1.4%. Both numbers are up just slightly from the EU’s last forecast, but still not close to being problematic. Other inflation reports, however, have seen hotter Euro zone inflation than the EU is forecasting.

The key outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil futures are higher and trading around $74.75 a barrel. Prices Tuesday hit a 6.5-year high of $76.98. Energy traders are trying to assess the recently concluded OPEC meeting that ended in disagreement with no changes to oil output. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are in sharp disagreement on the UAE’s production level. Such could unravel the oil cartel down the road and could lead to all-out pumping by the cartel members. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.35%. Treasury yields have been falling recently and this week hit a four-month low.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly chain store sales index and the Johnson Rebook retail sales report, the MBA mortgage applications survey, and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and near Tuesday’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,348.00 and then at 4,375.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 4,305.25 and then at 4,280.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are up in early U.S. trading and hit another contract and record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 14,900.00 and then at 15,000.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 14,754.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 14,625.25. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily chart and bulls have momentum and the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the June high of 163 2/32 and then at 163 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 162 7/32 and then at 162 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit a four-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.16.0 and then at 133.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.06.5 and then at 133.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Tuesday hit a three-month low. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1911 and then at 1.1950. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1820 and then at 1.1800. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $74.00 and then at this week’s low of $72.94. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight on corrective bounces after Tuesday’s sharply lower to limit-down trade following the three-day U.S. holiday weekend. Grain market bulls suffered a major blow Tuesday as the renewed weather market quickly fizzled. Very good amounts of rainfall are forecast for the U.S. Corn Belt over the next week—right during the key pollination phase of growth for much of the corn crop. Don’t be surprised if the big “fund” traders this week set up big short positions in the grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Critical trading week for the grain markets

July 6, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

The weather market in the grain futures was revived last week with the solid gains posted. History shows that the trading period right after the Fourth of July holiday can be crucial for the grains. Prices trends can be reversed or accelerated during the early- to-mid-July timeframe, which just happens to be the most important growth period for the majority of the U.S. corn crop. How the grain futures markets close on Friday (near their weekly highs or near their weekly lows) could set the tone for the grain markets for several weeks to come. Stay tuned!

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

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Disclaimer

There is a risk of financial loss in futures and options trading. Futures trading is neither easy nor an easy way to make money. It takes hard work to have success. Please use sound money management when trading futures. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing on this website is intended to be a trading recommendation to buy or sell futures or options. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Readers are solely responsible for how they use the information on this website.

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