Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, April 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed to firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Volatility in stock markets remains low, which is favoring the bulls. Also, easy money from the major central banks, government stimulus programs and notions economies are set to spring out of the Covid pandemic in strong fashion are all fueling the record-setting bull run in equities. In focus today will be U.S. corporate earnings reports.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. The greenback bulls have faded recently. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $61.15 a barrel. Oil prices are trading in a sideways and choppy fashion. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.632%. For perspective the German 10-year bund yield is presently minus 0.295% and the 10-year U.K. gilt yield is trading at 0.774%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, import and export prices and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report. Several Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Powell, are set to give speeches today.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and not far below this week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 4,139.75 and then at 4,165.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,101.25 and then at 4,081.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit a record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 14,007.75 and then at 14,100.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,900.00 and then at 13,772.75. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent sideways price action at lower levels may be “basing” that puts in a market bottom. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 157 14/32 and then at 158 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 156 16/32 and then at this week’s low of 155 25/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.06.0 and then at 132.09.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 131.24.0 and then at 131.18.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1989 and then at 1.2014. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1925 and then at this week’s low of 1.1886. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has been choppy and sideways. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $62.00 and then at $62.27. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $60.38 and then at $60.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls are having a good week, so far. Weather in the U.S. midsection will be market-sensitive in the coming weeks as corn planters start to roll. U.S. export sales data will also be closely scrutinized, amid a world supply and demand balance sheet for the grains that remains bullish—especially for corn and soybeans.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, April 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins, on some routine chart consolidation from recent gains that put the indexes at record highs. Trader and investor attitudes remain generally upbeat, which means the stock market is viewed as the best game in town.

The U.S. economic highlight of the day will be the consumer price index report for March, expected to come in at up 0.5% from February and up 2.5%, year-on-year. The CPI report follows last week’s producer price index report that came in much-hotter-than-expected, which added fuel to notions that inflation is rising faster than many had reckoned.

In overnight news, China got some more economic data that suggested the world’s second-largest economy continues to surge ahead. China’s March exports were up 30.6%, year-on-year, while its imports rose 38.1%.

The price of Bitcoin rose to a new record Tuesday, above $63,000, as it appears Wall Street is embracing the crypto currency world, after dragging its feet on the matter for years. The “Coinbase” exchange is expected to start trading on the Nasdaq this week.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $60.30 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.687%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the NFIB small business index, weekly chain store sales, the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, and real earnings. Several Federal Reserve officials are also slated to speak today.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and not far below the overnight contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight record high of 4,127.00 and then at 4,150.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at last Friday’s low of 4,081.00 and then at 4,050.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 13,841.75 and then at the record high of 13,888.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last Friday’s low of 13,648.25 and then at 13,500.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent sideways price action at lower levels may be “basing” that puts in a market bottom. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 157 4/32 and then at 157 8/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 155 25/32 and then at last week’s low of 155 6/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 131.28.5 and then at last week’s high of 132.03.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.12.0 and then at 131.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1943 and then at 1.1975. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.1886 and then at 1.1850. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has been choppy and sideways. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullishl early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of $60.77 and then at $61.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $59.64 and then at $59.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean bulls are in firm technical control but trading has turned sideways and choppy at higher levels. Wheat bulls have bounced back a bit and wheat will remain a follower. Weather in the U.S. midsection will be market-sensitive in the coming weeks as corn planters start to roll.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, April 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins, on a routine corrective pullback from recent gains that put the indexes at record highs last week.

Markets are not paying much attention to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments on the “60 Minutes” TV show Sunday evening, in which has reiterated the U.S. central bank will continue to support the economy until its fully recovered from the pandemic. He said it will “be a while” before the Fed raises interest rates.

Middle East tensions have up-ticked early this week on reports that a major uranium-enrichment facility in Iran was hit by a damaging cyberattack, likely coming from Israel. Major damage was reported.

In another sign of rising and possibly problematic price inflation from the world’s major economies, reports say China is considering implementing price controls due to rising commodity prices. Reports also say China’s central bank wants to tighten lending standards.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $60.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.65%.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday but the pace picks up Tuesday, including the consumer price index report for March.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 4,121.50 and then at 4,150.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 4,081.00 and then at 4,050.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a seven-week high Friday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 13,841.75 and then at the record high of 13,888.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 13,648.25 and then at 13,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent sideways price action at lower levels may be “basing” that puts in a market bottom. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 157 4/32 and then at 157 8/32. Shorter-term support lies at 156 even and then at last week’s low of 155 6/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 132.03.0 and then at 132.09.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at 131.15.0 and then at 131.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1943 and then at 1.1975. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1886 and then at 1.1850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has been choppy and sideways. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $61.00 and then at $62.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $57.73 and then at the March low of $57.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean bulls are in solid technical command. Wheat bulls have bounced back a bit and wheat will remain a follower. Weather in the U.S. midsection will be market-sensitive in the coming weeks as corn planters start to roll. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, April 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite remains generally keener at present, with no major geopolitical flare-ups spooking the marketplace.

A feature this week has been Wednesday’s minutes of the last Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that took place in March, which saw the Fed reiterating it will keep its monetary policy very accommodative for some time to come. Wharton professor Jeremey Siegel on Thursday said Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is the most dovish Fed chair ever. In Powell’s defense, how many other Fed chiefs have had to deal with a pandemic that severely crippled the U.S. and the global economies, and still has both hobbled. Said a Bloomberg email dispatch this morning: “The reason why ‘don’t fight the Fed’ has been such a popular mantra for decades is that it prevents investors from losing lots of money. Even with that rich history, bond traders staged a mini-coup this year and priced in a far more aggressive path of Fed hikes than policy makers have indicated. Now it seems those intrepid traders are starting to capitulate. Treasuries have rallied in a big way this week, with five- and seven-year notes absorbing the bulk of that demand, suggesting that bets on Fed hikes are starting to be pared back.” Still, this 35-plus year market watcher thinks the inflation genie is out of the bottle (Ask anyone building or remodeling a home or business about material costs.) and that bond yields will have to continue to rise in the coming months, along with interest rates. China’s stock market was pressured Friday on a higher-than-expected inflation report. Some analysts reckon any spread of problematic global inflation will originate in China.

There was more civil unrest and rioting in Northern Ireland Friday, which the marketplace is continuing to monitor. Not a major market issue yet, but many believe the situation could get worse as the U.K. tries to figure out what to do with the rules of the region, post-Brexit.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer on a bounce after solid selling pressure seen much of this week. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $59.75 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.66%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the producer price index and monthly wholesale trade.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit another contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight record high of 4,102.50 and then at 4,125.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 4,050.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,021.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a seven-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,841.75 and then at the record high of 13,888.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 13,615.50 and then at 13,512.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent sideways price action at lower levels may be “basing” that puts in a market bottom. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 157 4/32 and then at 157 8/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 155 6/32 and then at 155 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 132.03.0 and then at 132.09.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at 131.16.0 and then at 131.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still had a good week to begin to suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1943 and then at 1.1975. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1876 and then at 1.1850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has been choppy and sideways. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of $60.90 and then at $62.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $57.63 and then at the March low of $57.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mostly firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean bulls are in solid technical command and have gained fresh power this week. Wheat bulls have bounced back a bit and wheat will remain a follower. Focus of grain traders is on the late-morning monthly USDA supply and demand report, which is expected to be bullish. Weather in the U.S. midsection will be market-sensitive in the coming weeks.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff