Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, April 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with Asian shares mostly down and European shares mostly up. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward modestly lower openings when the New York day session begins, following recent good gains that pushed the Dow and S&P 500 indexes to record highs Monday. The general, over-riding theme in the marketplace at present is one of upbeat trader and investor attitudes, on ideas global economies will rebound strongly the second half of this year as Covid-19 gets tamped down. At least for now, worries about new waves of the pandemic, huge government spending programs producing problematic inflation, and a potentially over-inflated stock market are being brushed aside.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $59.70 a barrel, after getting hammered lower Monday due to energy demand worries. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.707%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the IDB/TIPP economic optimism report, and International Monetary Fund forecasts.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and did hit another contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight record high of 4,074.50 and then at 4,100.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 4,021.00 and then at 4,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are modestly down in early U.S. trading after hitting a six-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,622.25 and then at 13,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,500.00 and then at 13,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 156 11/32 and then at last week’s high of 156 26/32. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 155 6/32 and then at 154 20/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after setting a contract low Monday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 131.14.0 and then at 131.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 130.25.5 and then at 130.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1839 and then at 1.1875. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1800 and then at Monday’s low of 1.1753. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has been choppy and sideways. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $60.34 and then at $61.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $58.62 and then at this week’s low of $57.63. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean bulls are still in command. Wheat remains the follower. Focus of grain traders is now on U.S. Corn Belt weather conditions and early planting progress.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, April 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Many global stock markets were closed for the Easter holiday Monday, as well as for a holiday in Asia. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The Dow and S&P 500 indexes are at or near record highs. Trader and investor risk appetite is upbeat to start the trading week, following a very strong U.S. jobs report last Friday (when U.S. markets were closed) that showed a gain of 916,000 in non-farm payrolls in March. Also, President Biden is pushing his U.S. economic rescue package, called the American Jobs Plan, at a cost of $2.25 trillion over eight years.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are lower trading around $60.25 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.72%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the ISM New York report on business, the U.S. services purchasing managers index, the employment trends index, and manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and just a bit below last week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 4,038.00 and then at 4,065.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at 3,964.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 13,393.00 and then at 13,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,304.25 and then at 13,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 156 6/32 and then at last week’s high of 156 26/32. Shorter-term support lies at 155 even and then at 154 20/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and close to the recent contract low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 131.04.5 and then at 131.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 130.26.0 and then at 130.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1804 and then at 1.1850. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.1721 and then at 1.1700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $61.50 and then at last week’s high of $62.27. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $60.00 and then at $59.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean bulls are basking in last week’s very bullish USDA planting intentions report. Wheat remains the follower. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, April 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were flat to narrowly mixed overnight, on this first trading day of the month and of the second quarter. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Wednesday is the last trading day of the month and of the quarter, which is an extra important trading day from a technical chart perspective and also sees many portfolio managers doing some window dressing.

President Biden is set to unveil Wednesday the first of two expected portions of the next phase of his U.S. economic agenda. That package is expected to cost at least $2 trillion. The plan likely includes tax hikes for higher-income Americans and businesses.

In overnight news, the Euro zone March consumer price index came in at up 1.3%, year-on-year, versus up 0.9% in February. These numbers are not at all suggestive of problematic price inflation.

On tap in the U.S. today is the ADP national employment report for March, which is expected to show a gain of 525,000 jobs versus 117,000 jobs gained in February. This report is the precursor to the more important U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department on Friday, which is expected to show March non-farm payrolls gaining 675,000 jobs following a rise of 379,000 in February. The unemployment rate is seen at 6.0%.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker after hitting another 4.5-month high overnight. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower and trading around $60.35 a barrel. An OPEC meeting later this week is in focus for the oil market. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.73% after hitting a 14-month high of around 1.75% on Tuesday.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the Chicago ISM business survey, pending home sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and poked to a contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,000.00 and then at 4,025.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,928.75 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,287.25 and then at 13,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,090.00 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading today on short covering. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 155 18/32 and then at 156 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 154 24/32 and then at this week’s low of 153 29/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 131.09.5 and then at this week’s high of 131.13.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 130.26.0 and then at 130.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly up after hitting a 4.5-month low Wednesday. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 1.1792 and then at this week’s high of 1.1813. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1721 and then at 1.1700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of $61.17 and then at this week’s high of $62.27. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $58.85 and then at $58.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading, with corn and soybeans sharply higher after both markets closed the daily limit up on Wednesday following a very bullish USDA planting intentions report. Wheat prices are weaker after posting good gains on Wednesday. The grain market bulls have gained power and momentum, but the question is how long will it last. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, March 31–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were flat to narrowly mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Wednesday is the last trading day of the month and of the quarter, which is an extra important trading day from a technical chart perspective and also sees many portfolio managers doing some window dressing.

President Biden is set to unveil Wednesday the first of two expected portions of the next phase of his U.S. economic agenda. That package is expected to cost at least $2 trillion. The plan likely includes tax hikes for higher-income Americans and businesses.

In overnight news, the Euro zone March consumer price index came in at up 1.3%, year-on-year, versus up 0.9% in February. These numbers are not at all suggestive of problematic price inflation.

On tap in the U.S. today is the ADP national employment report for March, which is expected to show a gain of 525,000 jobs versus 117,000 jobs gained in February. This report is the precursor to the more important U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department on Friday, which is expected to show March non-farm payrolls gaining 675,000 jobs following a rise of 379,000 in February. The unemployment rate is seen at 6.0%.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker after hitting another 4.5-month high overnight. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower and trading around $60.35 a barrel. An OPEC meeting later this week is in focus for the oil market. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.73% after hitting a 14-month high of around 1.75% on Tuesday.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the Chicago ISM business survey, pending home sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and not far below the recent contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 3,978.50 and then at 4,000.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,928.75 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are modestly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,000.00 and then at 13,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,858.25 and then at this week’s low of 12,776.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading today. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 155 12/32 and then at 156 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 154 22/32 and then at this week’s low of 153 29/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 131.13.5 and then at 131.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 131.00.0 and then at the contract low of 130.26.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are modestly up after hitting a 4.5-month low overnight. Bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 1.1792 and then at this week’s high of 1.1813. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1721 and then at 1.1700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $61.17 and then at this week’s high of $62.27. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $60.00 and then at this week’s low of $59.41. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading, on some mild short covering and position evening. Today is the day. Grain traders are awaiting the very important USDA planting intentions and quarterly grains stocks reports near midday. Corn and soybean market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but price uptrends have stalled out. Wheat bulls have faded as prices are trending lower on the daily charts. Today’s price action will be critical. If the grains cannot score decent price gains on USDA data that is viewed as bullish, then that would be an ominous and bearish signal for trading action the next several weeks.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff