Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, March 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were near steady to mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is keener Tuesday following a bit of concern Monday regarding the unwinding of stock positions of a big investment fund, Archegos, after that firm became over-leveraged. A few individual stocks have been impacted but not the general stock and financial markets—at least not yet. Most market watchers reckon the matter will fade away with no contagion effect.

Traders and investors are generally upbeat amid a strengthening U.S. economy, more and more people getting the Covid vaccine, and with President Biden is set to unveil on Wednesday the first of two expected portions of the next phase of his U.S. economic agenda. That package would cost $3 trillion to $4 trillion. However, somewhat tempering enthusiasm in the marketplace is an uptick in Covid infections in Europe and now the U.S.

Gold prices are solidly lower again today and hit a three-week low overnight, as the yellow metal feels the pressure of rising bond yields, a stronger U.S. dollar and a wobbly crude oil market. Also, the U.S. and many global stock markets continue to show resilience despite some worrisome external forces, such as rising bond yields and Covid not yet releasing its grip on major economies.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher and hitting another 4.5-month high overnight. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $60.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 1.772%–hitting a 14-month high overnight.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the monthly house price index, the S&P-Core-Logic home indexes, and the consumer confidence index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading but not far below the recent contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 3,978.50 and then at 4,000.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 3,928.75 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,000.00 and then at 13,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 12,807.50 and then at 12,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and near the contract low in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 155 even and then at 156 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 153 29/32 and then at the contract low of 153 7/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 131.00.0 and then at 131.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 130.26.0 and then at 130.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower and hit a 4.5-month low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1792 and then at Monday’s high of 1.1813. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1725 and then at 1.1700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $62.27 and then at $63.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $60.00 and then at Monday’s low of $59.41. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are steady to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain traders are pausing ahead of the very important USDA planting intentions and quarterly grains stocks reports on Wednesday. Corn and soybean market bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage but price uptrends have stalled out. Wheat bulls have faded as prices are now trending lower on the daily charts.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, March 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were near steady to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward steady to weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Today is a holiday-shortened week for many countries that will see their markets closed on Friday to observe the Good Friday holiday ahead of Easter Sunday, including the U.S.

The marketplace Monday morning is buzzing and still a bit nervous over news that a large investment fund, Archegos Capital Management, late last week quickly dumped $30 billion in holdings, including big positions in Viacom CBS and Discovery, possibly because the firm was over-leveraged and got margin calls. There was some concern about a contagion effect roiling the marketplace this week and some investment banks’ stocks shares dropped sharply overnight, but so far the stock and financial markets, in general, are not reacting significantly to the matter.

President Biden is set to unveil on Wednesday the first of two expected portions of the next phase of his U.S. economic agenda: a series of infrastructure proposals. The package would cost $3 trillion to $4 trillion and will likely include billions in new tax revenue.

The world continues to watch as salvage operations have partially moved the massive container ship that has been wedged in the Suez Canal, forcing its closure. Officials are staying the boat is now partially dislodged from one side of the canal but also say the toughest part of completely refloating the ship lies ahead. Oil prices were pressured a bit on this news.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady after hitting a 4.5-month high late last week. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower and trading around $60.85 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 1.657%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 3,978.50 and then at 4,000.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,928.75 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,000.00 and then at 13,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,807.50 and then at 12,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 157 even and then at last week’s high of 157 8/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 155 19/32 and then at 155 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 132.00.0 and then at Friday’s high of 132.04.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.20.5 and then at 131.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1813 and then at 1.1847. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.1780 and then at 1.1750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $62.00 and then at $63.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $60.00 and then at the overnight low of $59.41. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed but mostly weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain traders await the very important USDA planting intentions and quarterly grains stocks reports on Wednesday. Trading is likely to remain quieter Monday and Tuesday, ahead of that key data. Grain market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, March 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. World investors are in upbeat moods to end the trading week, after the U.S. weekly jobless claims report on Thursday morning suggested the world’s largest economy is rapidly breaking out of its pandemic shackles.

In overnight news, German business sentiment up-ticked in March, beating expectations. The Ifo business climate index came in at 96.6 in March from 92.7 in February and expectations for a reading of 93.0.

The world continues to watch as Egypt tries to float a massive container ship wedged between the Suez Canal, but so far with no success.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker after hitting a 4.5-month high on Thursday. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $60.00 a barrel but the oil market bulls are still on the ropes after recent steep losses. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 1.636%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, advance economic indicators and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,944.50 and then at the contract high of 3,978.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,875.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,832.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,881.00 and then at 13,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,609.75 and then at 12,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 156 19/32 and then at this week’s high of 157 8/32. Shorter-term support lies at 155 even and then at this week’s low of 154 10/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 132.00.0 and then at the overnight high of 132.04.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 131.14.0 and then at this week’s low of 131.07.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and still have some momentum. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 1.1847 and then at 1.1873. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1780 and then at 1.1750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but a price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated, to suggest a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $61.00 and then at $62.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $58.32 and then at this week’s low of $57.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. The higher U.S. dollar index this week is keeping grain market bulls constrained. Grain traders await the very important USDA planting intentions and quarterly grains stocks reports next Wednesday. Trading is likely to remain quieter ahead of that data. Grain market bulls do still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Grain traders also need to keep an eye on crude oil prices. If crude continues to slide many raw commodity markets may do the same.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, March 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly weaker and Asian shares mostly firmer. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. A feature in the market place this week has been an appreciating U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market and a big drop in crude oil prices. These key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index higher and hitting another four-month high overnight as the greenback bulls have restarted a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is fetching 1.623% Wednesday morning. Rising bond yields in the U.S. that are outpacing government bond yields in other countries are inviting capital flows into the greenback, including from the Euro currency. The U.S. is beating the Euro zone on economic growth prospects and on the Covid-19 battle. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are lower today and trading around $60.00 a barrel. A giant container ship stuck in the Suez Canal is disrupting world shipping, including that of crude oil. One has to wonder if crude oil prices would be even lower this week had not the canal blockage occurred.

U.S. weekly jobless claims out today see analysts expecting 730,000 new filings and a drop in continuing claims, to 4 million.

One other thing the market will be keeping a close eye on Thursday is the auction of $62 billion in seven-year U.S. Treasury notes at midday. This auction comes after February’s Treasury note auction flop that prompted a big sell-off in U.S. Treasuries. 

Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the third estimate of four-quarter 2020 GDP, and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey. Several Federal Reserve officials are also slated to give speeches today.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,944.50 and then at the contract high of 3,978.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,875.00 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,000.00 and then at this week’s high of 13,172.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,752.00 and then at last week’s low of 12,681.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 157 4/32 and then at 157 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at 156 even and then at 155 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 132.09.0 and then at 132.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 131.26.0 and then at 131.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker and hit a 4.5-month low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 1.1873 and then at 1.1900. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1820 and then at 1.1800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but a price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated, to suggest a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $61.00 and then at $62.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $59.65 and then at $59.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. The higher U.S. dollar index this week keeping grain market bulls squelched. Grain traders await the very important USDA planting intentions and quarterly grains stocks reports next Wednesday. Trading is likely to remain quieter ahead of that data. Grain market bulls do still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Grain traders also need to keep an eye on crude oil prices. If crude continues to slide many raw commodity markets may do the same. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff