Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, February 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with Asian shares mostly down and European shares mostly up. A big government tax hike on trading shares in Hong Kong hit markets there and in London. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. This week marks the one-year anniversary of markets starting to get hit by the Covid-19 pandemic.

The marketplace pretty much took in stride Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony on U.S. monetary policy to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday. He speaks to lawmakers again today. In his testimony Tuesday, Powell said the U.S. central bank is committed to a very accommodative monetary policy as long as the economy remains negatively impacted by the pandemic. “The economy is a long way from our employment and inflation goals,” he said. Powell said he expects a temporary rise in U.S. inflation, maybe over the next year, but not larger or persistent price increases, adding that he believes the big stimulus packages from the U.S. government will not cause problematic price inflation. As for rising bond yields recently, Powell said that is just “a statement of confidence” for an improving U.S. economic outlook.

The “reflation trade,” whereby notions that inflationary price pressures will rise and thus support upside price action in raw commodity futures markets, is gaining in popularity recently—or at least in marketplace discussions. Longtime market analyst Jeff Wilson of Pro Farmer has pointed out something which has apparently flown under the radar screen of much of the marketplace, but yet is still a significant development. The CME Group has successfully lobbied the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to raise for many markets (and some dramatically) the speculative futures contract trading limits that any one trader can hold, effective March 15. For example, in silver futures the limitation on one trader holding spot-month futures contracts was doubled from 1,500 to 3,000. Gold was left unchanged at 6,000 contracts. So what does this mean? It suggests to me that CME Group officials are suspecting much bigger trading volumes are coming in many futures markets later this year as the world comes out of the pandemic and amid a global financial system awash in cash from government central bank stimulus programs. This is potentially very good news for raw commodity market bulls and suggests there could be much bigger participation in trading raw commodity futures markets from the long side in the coming months, including gold and silver.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices up and trading around $62.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly weaker early today as the bulls have faded recently. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.371%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, new residential sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report. Several Federal Reserve officials are also slated to speak today.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage but have faded a bit this week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of 3,896.00 and then at this week’s high of 3,914.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,851.75 and then at 3,825.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading badly this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,263.00 and then at Tuesday’s high of 13,335.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,027.00 and then at 12,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit another contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 162 29/32 and then at this week’s high of 163 13/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 161 21/32 and then at 161 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and not far above this week’s contract low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 135.23.0 and then at 135.28.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Tuesday’s low of 135.06.5 and then at the contract low of 135.01.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have restarted a price uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.2186 and then at 1.2200. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2147 and then at this week’s low of 1.2096. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend firmly in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $63.00 and then at $64.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $60.97 and then at $60.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are mostly trending up—both on a near-term and longer-term basis. Overall supply and demand fundamentals remain bullish for the grains. The “reflation trade” is gaining steam at present, and that is also bullish for the grains. The path of least resistance for grain futures prices remains sideways to higher.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, February 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with Asian shares mostly up and European shares mostly down. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is looking forward to Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell’s testimony on U.S. monetary policy to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday morning. The marketplace will be especially keen to hear what Powell has to say about rising U.S. Treasury yields and the prospects for rising inflation. The stock market has turned wobbly early this week due in part to worries about rising bond yields starting to pull away investor money from the stock market. A Barron’s story today was headlined, “The Reflation Trade is Well Underway. How Long Can Investors Keep Smiling?” Still, the U.S. stock indexes are not that far down from their recent record highs and trader and investor attitudes are still generally upbeat.

In other overnight news, the price of Bitcoin is getting hammered early this week and has dropped close to 15% from the record high seen over the weekend. If the declines in Bitcoin continue it could put a floor under the competing asset class, gold and silver markets.

The key “outside markets” today sees Nymex crude oil futures prices up and trading around $62.25 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker firmer early today but the bulls have faded recently. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.37%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the monthly house price index, the S&P Core-Logic home indexes, the Richmond Fed business survey, and the consumer confidence index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage but have faded a bit early this week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,896.00 and then at this week’s high of 3,914.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,840.00 and then at 3,820.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,150.00 and then at the overnight high of 13,335.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,946.50 and then at 12,825.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker and hit another contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 163 13/32 and then at 164 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 161 31/32 and then at 161 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract low on Monday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 135.19.0 and then at 135.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 135.07.5 and then at the contract low of 135.01.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a four-week high overnight. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has been choppy. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2186 and then at 1.2200. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.2096 and then at 1.2050. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a 13-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend firmly in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $63.00 and then at $64.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $61.52 and then at $61.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed but mostly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices mostly trending up—both on a near-term and longer-term basis. Overall supply and demand fundamentals remain bullish for the grains. The “reflation trade” is gaining steam at present, and that is also bullish for the grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, February 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The stock market traders are taking note of the competing asset class of government bonds, as the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is currently fetching 1.369%, a one-year high. Still, one stock market analyst said U.S. T-Note yields would have to rise to around 4% to become competitive with the U.S. technology stock sector, on a return on investment basis. And overall trader and investor risk sentiment remains low, as the U.S. government is set to roll out a new, big financial stimulus package for Americans. Also, Covid-19 infections are on the decline while vaccines are continuing to ramp up.

Inflation concerns in the marketplace are on the rise. Broker SP Angel said Monday morning in an email dispatch: “As the U.S., China, EU, U.K. and beyond all look to roll out their own packages of environmental initiatives, the post-crisis consumption of industrial metals is widely expected to outstrip near-term and medium-term supply. Inflation expectations have also helped base metals, with copper prices rising 18% for every 1% in consumer prices since 1992. Goldman Sachs reported last week the copper market is facing the largest deficit in a decade this year, with a high risk of scarcity over the coming months.” Many raw commodity futures market prices are trending up at present.

The marketplace is looking ahead to Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell’s testimony on U.S. monetary policy to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday.

The key “outside markets” today sees Nymex crude oil futures prices are up and trading around $59.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index, leading economic indicators, and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,914.50 and then at the record high of 3,936.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,861.25 and then at 3,840.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,500.00 and then at 13,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,300.00 and then at 13,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 163 2/32 and then at 163 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 162 2/32 and then at 161 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are down in early U.S. trading and hit a contract low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 135.14.5 and then at 135.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 135.01.0 and then at 134.28.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the  overall near-term technical advantage but trading has been choppy. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.2150 and then at the February high of 1.2176. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2096 and then at 1.2050. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend firmly in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $60.18 and then at $61.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $58.82 and then at $58.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices mostly trending up—both on a near-term and longer-term basis. Overall supply and demand fundamentals remain bullish for the grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, February 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Global equity markets are ending a mixed week on a quiet note. Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index was broadly unchanged, while Japan’s Topix index closed 0.7% lower. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was up a bit.

Said broker SP Angel in an email dispatch this morning: “Copper and nickel prices continued to rally on Friday, powering to multi-year highs along with tin as the world looks to build its way out of a Covid-fueled recession. Investors are starting to appreciate that there is insufficient mine capacity to enable rapid transition to a more environmentally conscious global economy. As the U.S., China, EU, U.K. and beyond all look to roll out their own packages of environmental initiatives, the post-crisis demand for industrial metals is widely expected to outstrip near-term and medium-term supply.” As these industrial metals rise, it could be that safe-haven gold and silver markets could be pulled along for the ride.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index trading lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are solidly down and trading around $59.00 a barrel. The U.S. wants to talk with Iran on its nuclear ambitions, and that could put more Iranian oil on the world market in the coming months. The U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield is fetching 1.308%. Government bond yields are on the rise, offering a more competitive asset class that may be pulling money away from the stock markets.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. flash service and manufacturing PMIs, and existing home sales. U.S. economic data is suggesting the world’s largest economy is picking up steam, highlighted by this week’s retail sales report for January showing an unexpected surge.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Thursday’s high of 3,936.00 and then at the record high of 3,959.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,880.50 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,785.00 and then at the record high of 13,900.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,550.00 and then at this week’s low of 13,468.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a contract low on Wednesday. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 164 22/32 and then at Thursday’s high of 165 8/32. Shorter-term support lies at 164 even and then at the contract low of 163 17/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are down in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a contract low Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 135.28.5 and then at Thursday’s high of 136.02.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 135.20.0 and then at the contract low of 135.15.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the  overall near-term technical advantage but trading has been choppy. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2150 and then at the February high of 1.2176. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.2100 and then at the overnight low of 1.2087. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading on profit taking after hitting a 13-month high Thursday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend firmly in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $60.20 and then at $61.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $58.59 and then at $58.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are not trading too far below their recent highs. Overall supply and demand fundamentals are bullish for the grains. Right now the path of least resistance for grain prices remains sideways to higher.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff