Daily Morning Report

Monday, March 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Global bond market yields have down-ticked a bit to start the trading week, which has given some buoyancy to the stock markets that got hit last week when the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield moved above 1.6% to a one-year high. The U.S. 10-year on Monday is currently fetching 1.445%.

President Biden’s $1.9 trillion U.S. stimulus bill was passed by the House of Representatives on Saturday and now moves to the Senate. With some unemployment support measures running out in two weeks, the focus for lawmakers is on getting the bill passed through the Senate and ready for Biden’s signature as quickly as possible. 

In overnight news, the Euro zone February manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 57.9 versus 54.8 in January. Meantime, China’s private survey Caixin PMI came in at 50.9 in February from 51.5 in January. A reading above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector. U.S. PMI numbers are out this morning.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices higher and trading around $62.25 a barrel. There is an OPEC meeting on Thursday that the marketplace will closely monitor. The U.S. dollar index is a bit higher early today.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index, the ISM business report on manufacturing, construction spending and the global manufacturing purchasing managers index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices higher and rebounding from a three-week low hit Friday. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,846.75 and then at 3,875.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,800.00 and then at last week’s low of 3,775.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a seven-week low last Friday. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,120.75 and then at 13,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,945.00 and then at 12,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a contract low last week. Bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 160 26/32 and then at 161 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 159 6/32 and then at 159 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.16.5 and then at 133.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 133.00.0 and then at 132.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading on more profit taking after hitting a six-week high late last week. Bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage as a price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2125 and then at 1.2150. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2058 and then at 1.2025. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend firmly in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $63.81 and then at $64.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $61.34 and then at $61.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are mostly trending up—both on a near-term and longer-term basis. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, February 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Bearish weekly and monthly low closes in the stock indexes today would be an ominously bearish signal that the indexes may have put in at least near-term tops if not major tops.

Marketplace attention is squarely on the strong rise in government bond yields this week, which saw the benchmark U.S. Treasury yield push above 1.6% at one point late this week. The 10-year yield has backed off a bit Friday and is fetching 1.475%. Higher bond yields are throwing a scare into the stock market bulls who have had a seemingly free pass to higher and higher share prices in recent months. However, the rising bond yields, if they continue to do so, will erode some investor interest in the stock market. The technology sector of stocks is already spooked as seen by bigger losses this week.

Bond yields are climbing on notions the major global economies will break out of their pandemic shackles in strong fashion during the second half of this year. Also, U.S. Democrats are ready to push a $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief package through the U.S. House Friday. That win is expected despite a setback that means a minimum wage boost is unlikely to be in the final version that reaches President Biden. A near party-line vote seemed certain on the relief measure in the House.

Gold, which pays no dividend, has been hit hard by the rising government bond yields and on Friday the safe-haven metal fell to an eight-month low.

The markets are paying little attention to a U.S. military precision strike against Iranian- backed camps in Syria overnight. U.S.-Iran tensions were already elevated and the U.S. military action may prompt retaliation from Iran.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices weaker and trading around $63.00 a barrel after hitting a 13-month high on Thursday. The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher early today on a corrective bounce from recent selling pressure.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, the advance economic indicators report, the Chicago ISM business survey, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading late this week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,847.50 and then at 3,875.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,800.00 and then at 3,775.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and hit a seven-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded badly this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,915.00 and then at 13,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,662.25 and then at 12,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on a corrective bounce from recent strong selling pressure that saw prices hit a contract low on Thursday. Bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 161 even and then at Thursday’s high of 161 24/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 159 1/32 and then at 158 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on a corrective bounce after hitting a contract low on Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 134.00.0 and then at the overnight high of 134.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 133.10.5 and then at the contract low of 133.02.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are solidly lower in early U.S. trading on profit taking aftert hitting a six-week high on Thursday. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.2150 and then at the overnight high of 1.2188. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2096 and then at 1.2050. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are lower on profit taking after hitting a 13-month high on Thursday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend firmly in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $63.81 and then at $64.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $62.00 and then at $61.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are solidly lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. Risk aversion is hitting the grains late this week. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are mostly trending up—both on a near-term and longer-term basis.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, February 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The discussion in the marketplace at present centers on global inflation prospects, with most traders reckoning inflation is up-ticking. The key question is how high will price inflation rise and will it become problematic. Government bond yields are trending up, with the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note presently fetching 1.444%, a one-year high. Stock market bulls have taken note of the rising bond yields and are a bit worried about it. At least one big Wall Street investment bank is predicting a “commodity super-cycle” is just under way that will see raw commodity prices appreciate for quite some time to come. Many commodity futures markets such as the grains, crude oil and some softs have seen their prices hit multi-month and even multi-year highs this year.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell’s testimony to the U.S. Congress this week saw the central bank chief reiterate that U.S. money policy will remain very easy until U.S. employment has reached more normal levels coming out of the pandemic. This did work to assuage the stock index bulls a bit as prices have rebounded from early-week lows.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices slightly up and trading around $63.30 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is lower early today as the bulls have faded recently.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the second estimate of four-quarter gross domestic product, durable goods orders, pending home sales and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,934.50 and then at the contract high of 3,959.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Wednesday’s low of 3,851.75 and then at 3,825.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,353.75 and then at 13,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at 12,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower and hit another contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 160 16/32 and then at 161 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 159 26/32 and then at 159 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 2.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 135.00.0 and then at the overnight high of 135.09.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 134.17.5 and then at 134.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are solidly higher and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2242 and then at 1.2300. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.2200 and then at the overnight low of 1.2160. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and hit a 13-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend firmly in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $63.79 and then at $64.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $62.00 and then at $61.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. The bulls are having a good week and have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are mostly trending up—both on a near-term and longer-term basis. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. The path of least resistance for grain futures prices remains sideways to higher.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, February 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with Asian shares mostly down and European shares mostly up. A big government tax hike on trading shares in Hong Kong hit markets there and in London. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. This week marks the one-year anniversary of markets starting to get hit by the Covid-19 pandemic.

The marketplace pretty much took in stride Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony on U.S. monetary policy to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday. He speaks to lawmakers again today. In his testimony Tuesday, Powell said the U.S. central bank is committed to a very accommodative monetary policy as long as the economy remains negatively impacted by the pandemic. “The economy is a long way from our employment and inflation goals,” he said. Powell said he expects a temporary rise in U.S. inflation, maybe over the next year, but not larger or persistent price increases, adding that he believes the big stimulus packages from the U.S. government will not cause problematic price inflation. As for rising bond yields recently, Powell said that is just “a statement of confidence” for an improving U.S. economic outlook.

The “reflation trade,” whereby notions that inflationary price pressures will rise and thus support upside price action in raw commodity futures markets, is gaining in popularity recently—or at least in marketplace discussions. Longtime market analyst Jeff Wilson of Pro Farmer has pointed out something which has apparently flown under the radar screen of much of the marketplace, but yet is still a significant development. The CME Group has successfully lobbied the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to raise for many markets (and some dramatically) the speculative futures contract trading limits that any one trader can hold, effective March 15. For example, in silver futures the limitation on one trader holding spot-month futures contracts was doubled from 1,500 to 3,000. Gold was left unchanged at 6,000 contracts. So what does this mean? It suggests to me that CME Group officials are suspecting much bigger trading volumes are coming in many futures markets later this year as the world comes out of the pandemic and amid a global financial system awash in cash from government central bank stimulus programs. This is potentially very good news for raw commodity market bulls and suggests there could be much bigger participation in trading raw commodity futures markets from the long side in the coming months, including gold and silver.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices up and trading around $62.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly weaker early today as the bulls have faded recently. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.371%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, new residential sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report. Several Federal Reserve officials are also slated to speak today.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage but have faded a bit this week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of 3,896.00 and then at this week’s high of 3,914.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,851.75 and then at 3,825.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading badly this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,263.00 and then at Tuesday’s high of 13,335.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,027.00 and then at 12,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit another contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 162 29/32 and then at this week’s high of 163 13/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 161 21/32 and then at 161 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and not far above this week’s contract low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 135.23.0 and then at 135.28.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Tuesday’s low of 135.06.5 and then at the contract low of 135.01.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have restarted a price uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.2186 and then at 1.2200. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2147 and then at this week’s low of 1.2096. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend firmly in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $63.00 and then at $64.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $60.97 and then at $60.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are mostly trending up—both on a near-term and longer-term basis. Overall supply and demand fundamentals remain bullish for the grains. The “reflation trade” is gaining steam at present, and that is also bullish for the grains. The path of least resistance for grain futures prices remains sideways to higher.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff