Daily Morning Report

Friday, February 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Many Asian markets were closed late this week as the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday began, and markets will remain closed until the middle of next week. U.S. markets are closed on Monday for the President’s Day holiday. There is a bit more risk aversion late this week as the newer, highly contagious Covid-19 strain called the South African coronavirus has arrived in the U.S. This strain of the virus is also possibly more resistant to the vaccines. One news headline reads: “U.K. scientist warns new Covid variant will ‘sweep the world.’” Still, it can be argued a late-week pullback in the U.S. stock indexes is just a pause in a bull market run that has seen the indexes hit new record highs this week.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index trading higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are weaker and trading around $57.75 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is currently fetching 1.155%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and seeing some mild profit taking after hitting record highs Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 3,928.50 and then at 3,950.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,878.20 and then at 3,860.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading on profit taking, and not far below Wednesday’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 13,769.25 and then at 13,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 13,612.50 and then at this week’s low of 13,516.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading on short covering. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 168 even and then at 168 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at 167 even and then at 166 21/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are  slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 137.02.0 and then at 137.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 136.25.5 and then at 136.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls had the better week. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.2157 and then at 1.2200. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.2100 and then at 1.2055. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are weaker on more routine profit taking after hitting a 13-month high Wednesday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $58.91 and then at $60.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $57.00 and then at $56.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are slightly up in early U.S. pre-market trading. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but did get dented this week. How the grain futures markets close out the week on Friday will be critical for near-term price direction. Closing levels Friday that are at or near the weekly lows would be a clue that near-term market tops are in place. Still, overall supply and demand fundamentals are bullish for the grains. The key question for traders is, has all the bullish news been factored into futures prices. Remember that a strong bull market needs to be fed  fresh, bullish fundamental news on a regular basis.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, February 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings and near record highs when the New York day session begins. Declining Covid-19 infection rates in the U.S. amid ramped up vaccinations, as well as a new government pandemic relief package likely coming for Americans soon, have lifted trader and investor risk appetite recently.

The Chinese Lunar New Year holiday began today and markets in mainland China will be closed the next several days.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech to the Economic Club of New York Wednesday afternoon saw the central bank chief reiterate the Fed will maintain its highly accommodative monetary policy by keeping U.S. interest rates very low and continuing its bond-buying program (quantitative easing).

Meantime, the European Union Commission said Thursday the Euro zone economy is set to contract by 0.9% in the first quarter of this year, but then rebound in good fashion by the second half of the year. The more highly contagious strain of Covid-19 is expected to continue to constrict businesses and consumer activity in the Euro zone in the first quarter.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index trading slightly higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are weaker and trading around $58.30 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is currently fetching 1.135%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes weekly jobless claims report, expected to show new claims of 760,000 compared to 769,000 last week.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are modestly higher in early U.S. trading and near the record high scored Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 3,928.50 and then at 3,950.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,878.20 and then at 3,860.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and not far below Wednesday’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 13,769.25 and then at 13,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,612.50 and then at this week’s low of 13,516.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading on short covering. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 168 even and then at 168 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at 167 even and then at 166 21/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are  slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 137.02.0 and then at 137.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 136.24.0 and then at 136.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are having a good week. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.2151 and then at 1.2168. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.2100 and then at 1.2055. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are weaker on routine profit taking after hitting a 13-month high Wednesday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $58.91 and then at $60.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $57.00 and then at $56.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading, following solid losses on Wednesday. Profit taking was the feature Wednesday. The bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, how the markets close out the week on Friday will be critical for near-term price direction. Closing levels Friday that are at or near the weekly lows would be a clue that near-term market tops are in place. Still, overall supply and demand fundamentals are bullish for the grains. The key question for traders is, has all the bullish news been factored into futures prices. Remember that a strong bull market needs to be fed  fresh, bullish fundamental news on a regular basis.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, February 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. China’s Shanghai stock index hit a 5.5-year high, on the last day of trading before the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday begins. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings and record highs when the New York day session begins.

Upbeat trader and investor attitudes this week continue to drive share prices up. New Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations in the U.S. are declining, vaccinations are ramping up, and the U.S. Congress is likely to pass a big financial stimulus package for Americans by the time spring arrives. Corporate earnings reports have also been generally positive lately.

The U.S. data point of the day at mid-week is the consumer price index for January, expected to come in at up 0.3% from December and up 1.5%, year-on-year. Despite the “reflation trade” being in favor in the marketplace at present, data from most major economies does not show inflation numbers even close to being problematic.

Another U.S. marketplace feature Wednesday is Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech to the Economic Club of New York at 2:00 p.m. eastern time.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index trading slightly lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and hit another 13-month high overnight, and are trading around $58.70 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is currently fetching 1.16%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the consumer price index, real earnings, the monthly Treasury budget statement and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit another record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight record high of 3,924.00 and then at 3,950.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,885.50 and then at 3,860.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit another record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 13,769.25 and then at 13,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,596.00 and then at 13,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 167 19/32 and then at 168 even. Shorter-term support lies at 166 16/32 and then at the contract low of 166 3/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 136.26.0 and then at 136.29.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 136.14.5 and then at 136.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading, on more short covering. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2151 and then at 1.2168. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.2100 and then at Tuesday’s low of 1.2055. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and hit another 13-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $59.00 and then at $60.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $57.00 and then at $56.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. Profit taking is the feature at mid-week. The bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Overall supply and demand fundamentals are still bullish for the grains. The key question now for traders is, has all the bullish news been factored into futures prices. Price action the rest of this week will go a long way in helping to answer that question—especially how prices close out the trading week on Friday.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, February 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins, after setting record highs Monday. U.S. stock market bulls are taking a pause Tuesday, but risk sentiment remains upbeat as new U.S. Covid-19 cases are starting to decline as vaccinations continue to roll out. Also, hopes are high that the Biden administration will implement a big financial stimulus package by springtime.

The “reflation trade” remains a feature in the global marketplace. Raw commodity markets are rallying, led by crude oil, while U.S. bond yields are rising. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note stands at 1.165%. Following is an edited comment from an Asian broker in an email dispatch this morning: “Inflation looks increasingly likely in the West as the yuan appreciates and companies look to restock supply chains as logistics and shortages present greater risk. Rising raw materials costs will be increasingly passed onto consumers. The Chinese yuan has strengthened to Rmb 6.44/U.S. dollar from 7.15 in May 2020, causing the cost of Chinese goods to the West to rise. Raw materials prices are rising, transport costs are higher. Disruption is an increasing cost as shipping containers are blocked or simply not readily available. Western manufacturers, which have enjoyed the benefit of low Asian component costs and fast, reliable and low-cost logistics–all this is changing. Unit costs will rise as manufacturers struggle to raise utilization rates as logistics become less reliable.” To many longtime market watchers it seems unfathomable that all the monetary policy stimulus from central banks and government assistance programs implemented the past year cannot avoid creating problematic price inflation in the not-too-distant future.

In another feature this week, Bitcoin-U.S. dollar prices are higher and hit a new all-time high above $48,000 in early U.S. trading Tuesday. The BC bulls got an electric jolt to the upside when it was just announced Monday morning that Tesla will invest $1.5 billion in Bitcoin and that the electric vehicle maker will incorporate Bitcoin into its car-purchasing operation. More and more it appears that Bitcoin is gaining credibility among the veteran market watchers that may have been early naysayers to the cryptocurrency asset class. It appears that safe-haven gold and silver may be gaining some buying interest from the Bitcoin surge this week, possibly due to notions the growing move by investors into Bitcoin as an asset class will take away some of the allure of the U.S. dollar being what many consider the ultimate safe-haven asset. Bitcoin bulls are in solid technical control to suggest still more upside in the near term.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower on profit taking after hitting a 13-month high overnight, and are trading around $57.70 a barrel.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the NFIB small business index, weekly chain store sales, and the Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading and hit a new record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight record high of 3,913.25 and then at 3,935.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at last Friday’s low of 3,860.00 and then at 3,830.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading and did hit a new record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 13,698.00 and then at 13,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last Friday’s low of 13,519.50 and then at 13,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a contract low on Monday. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 167 24/32 and then at 168 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 166 28/32 and then at 166 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 136.25.0 and then at 136.29.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 136.19.5 and then at this week’s low of 136.14.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Prices are still trending lower and the bears have the slight overall near-term chart advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2125 and then at 1.2168. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2055 and then at this week’s low of 1.2028. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and did hit a 13-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $58.62 and then at $59.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $57.00 and then at $56.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed to higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The “inflation trade” mentioned above is helping to fuel the bull run in grains. Focus in the grains remains on strong worldwide demand for grains. There are no strong, early chart clues to suggest market tops are close at hand. Supply and demand fundamentals are bullish for the grains. The big event in the grain markets this week is Tuesday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff