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Daily Morning Report

Rising bond yields in keen focus

March 4, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

The U.S. Treasury bond and note futures markets have recently hit contract lows, while the cash Treasury markets have seen the key 10-year note yield rise to a one-year high. Rising bond yields have spooked the stock market bulls and have reignited fears of problematic price inflation. Many market watchers look for inflation to continue to up-tick in the coming months as major economies are set to spring out of the pandemic in strong fashion. Stay tuned!– Jim

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Stock markets wobbly amid rising bond yields

March 4, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, March 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are keeping a wary eye on government bond yields, which have been generally rising recently, and which have again made stock markets wobbly late this week. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently trading around 1.462% for its yield.

The marketplace today will closely scrutinize a speech around noon EST by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell today at a jobs summit. Traders are hoping Powell will talk about rising government bond yields and inflation prospects.

Traders are also awaiting Friday morning’s Employment Situation Report for February from the U.S. Labor Department—arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen up 210,000 in February.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices weaker and trading around $61.00 a barrel. An OPEC meeting began Thursday that the marketplace will closely monitor. It could be that with oil prices above $60 a barrel that the cartel opens up its oil spigots some more, after curbing production in recent months to prop up prices. Early reports say Saudi Arabia and Russia are discussing a joint output increase of 1 million barrels a day. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is firmer early today.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, revised productivity and costs, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, and monthly chain store sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and hit a four-week low. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,809.75 and then at 3,850.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,767.00 and then at 3,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker and hit a two-month low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,696.00 and then at 12,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,503.00 and then at 12,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading on tepid short covering. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 159 even and then at 160 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 157 27/32 and then at 157 14/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 133.16.0 and then at this week’s high of 133.23.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.27.5 and then at 132.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field amid recent choppy trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2088 and then at this week’s high of 1.2139. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2053 and then at this week’s low of 1.2019. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $62.00 and then at $63.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $60.52 and then at $60.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mostly firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Markets may remain choppy and sideways up until the late-March USDA planting intentions report, which is one of the most important grain market reports of the year. Grain market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are mostly trending up—both on a near-term and longer-term basis.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

U.S. ADP employment report on tap Wednesday

March 3, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, March 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Marketplace attitudes are upbeat at mid-week after President Biden said on Tuesday all Americans wanting a Covid vaccine should be able to get one by the end of May. Also, the U.S. government is getting closer to rolling out its newest pandemic assistance package that totals $1.9 trillion. “We can see light at the end of the tunnel of the pandemic,” said one market analyst.

In overnight news, the Euro zone services purchasing managers index (PMI) in February came in at 45.7 compared to 45.4 in January. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector.

The U.S. data point of the day will be the ADP national employment report for February, which is expected to come in at up 225,000 jobs, following a 174,000 gain in January. This report is a precursor to Friday morning’s employment situation report from the U.S. Labor Department—arguably the most important U.S. economic report of the month.

Traders and investors are still keeping one eye on government bond yields, which have been generally rising recently, and which have made stock markets a bit wobbly at times. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently trading around 1.446% for its yield. Many veteran market watchers believe U.S. Treasury yields will continue to climb in the coming months.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices higher and trading around $61.85 a barrel. There is an OPEC meeting on Thursday that the marketplace will closely monitor. It could be that with oil prices above $60 a barrel that the cartel opens up its oil spigots some more, after curbing production in recent months to prop up prices. The U.S. dollar index is a bit firmer early today.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the U.S. services purchasing managers index (PMI), the ISM report on business services, the global services PMI, the Federal Reserve’s beige book and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are not far below the recent contract and record high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,901.75 and then at last week’s high of 3,924.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 3,855.25 and then at 3,825.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,181.00 and then at this week’s high of 13,316.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,945.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 159 29/32 and then at this week’s high of 160 26/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 158 18/32 and then at 158 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 133.23.0 and then at 133.28.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.06.5 and then at this week’s low of 133.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field amid recent choppy trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2139 and then at 1.2175. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.2050 and then at this week’s low of 1.2019. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of $61.21 and then at $62.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $59.24 and then at $59.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, on profit taking from the shorter-term traders. Not much new. Markets may be quieter up until the late-March USDA planting intentions report, which is one of the most important grain market reports of the year. Grain market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are mostly trending up—both on a near-term and longer-term basis.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Crude oil continues to climb

March 2, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Nymex crude oil futures prices are trading above $60.00 a barrel amid a solid uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Some energy analysts are predicting crude oil prices will go much higher in the coming months, as world economies spring out of the pandemic in strong fashion. Right now, there are no early chart clues to suggest the uptrend in crude oil prices will end anytime soon. Stay tuned!– Jim

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Stock markets pause Tuesday

March 2, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, March 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly down overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins, after strong gains posted Monday. Government bond yields generally pulled back a bit Monday, which assuaged stock market traders for the moment. However, Asian markets were rattled overnight when a top banking official in China said the U.S. and other stock markets were in bubbles that are bound to eventually correct. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently trading around 1.445% for its yield. Many veteran market watchers believe U.S. Treasury yields will continue to climb in the coming months.

In other overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index for February came in at up 0.9% compared to a 0.9% gain in January. Once again, inflation data coming from a major global economy is nowhere near suggesting problematic price inflation down the road. However, inflation data later this year will probably be more indicative, if any major economies are indeed starting to run too hot.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices near steady and trading around $60.65 a barrel. There is an OPEC meeting on Thursday that the marketplace will closely monitor. The U.S. dollar index is a bit higher early today.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the ISM New York report on business, the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index, and domestic auto industry sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices a bit weaker in early U.S. trading after Monday’s solid gains. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 3,901.75 and then at last week’s high of 3,924.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,856.50 and then at 3,825.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after good gains seen Monday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,316.75 and then at 13,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,152.50 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 160 1/32 and then at this week’s high of 160 26/32. Shorter-term support lies at 158 16/32 and then at 158 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.17.0 and then at 133.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 133.00.0 and then at 132.28.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage as a price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2077 and then at 1.2100. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2019 and then at 1.2000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $61.00 and then at $62.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $59.45 and then at $59.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed to lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. Not much new. Markets may be quieter up until the late-March USDA planting intentions report, which is one of the most important grain market reports of the year. Grain market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are mostly trending up—both on a near-term and longer-term basis.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Bond yields back off a bit Monday

March 1, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, March 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Global bond market yields have down-ticked a bit to start the trading week, which has given some buoyancy to the stock markets that got hit last week when the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield moved above 1.6% to a one-year high. The U.S. 10-year on Monday is currently fetching 1.445%.

President Biden’s $1.9 trillion U.S. stimulus bill was passed by the House of Representatives on Saturday and now moves to the Senate. With some unemployment support measures running out in two weeks, the focus for lawmakers is on getting the bill passed through the Senate and ready for Biden’s signature as quickly as possible. 

In overnight news, the Euro zone February manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 57.9 versus 54.8 in January. Meantime, China’s private survey Caixin PMI came in at 50.9 in February from 51.5 in January. A reading above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector. U.S. PMI numbers are out this morning.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices higher and trading around $62.25 a barrel. There is an OPEC meeting on Thursday that the marketplace will closely monitor. The U.S. dollar index is a bit higher early today.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index, the ISM business report on manufacturing, construction spending and the global manufacturing purchasing managers index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices higher and rebounding from a three-week low hit Friday. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,846.75 and then at 3,875.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,800.00 and then at last week’s low of 3,775.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a seven-week low last Friday. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,120.75 and then at 13,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,945.00 and then at 12,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a contract low last week. Bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 160 26/32 and then at 161 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 159 6/32 and then at 159 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.16.5 and then at 133.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 133.00.0 and then at 132.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading on more profit taking after hitting a six-week high late last week. Bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage as a price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2125 and then at 1.2150. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2058 and then at 1.2025. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend firmly in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $63.81 and then at $64.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $61.34 and then at $61.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are mostly trending up—both on a near-term and longer-term basis. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

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Disclaimer

There is a risk of financial loss in futures and options trading. Futures trading is neither easy nor an easy way to make money. It takes hard work to have success. Please use sound money management when trading futures. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing on this website is intended to be a trading recommendation to buy or sell futures or options. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Readers are solely responsible for how they use the information on this website.

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