Daily Morning Report

Monday, March 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with Asian indexes mostly lower and European indexes mostly higher. Asian shares were pressured by more overtures by the Chinese government that suggest consumer debt and stock market speculation will be reined in. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Rising government bond yields remain in the spotlight to start the trading week and remain a bearish element for stock markets. The U.S. 10-year Treasury note was trading around 1.61% this morning.

Tensions are rising in the Middle East after a drone attack by Iran-backed Houthi rebels on a major Saudi Arabian oil facility over the weekend. The Saudis said the attack will not impact overall Saudi oil production levels. Still, the matter deserves close monitoring as any further Saudi Arabia-Iran military conflicts could impact oil flowing out of the Persian Gulf.

In other overnight news, China reported its exports rose a whopping 60.6% in the January-February period, while imports were up 22.2%, year-on-year. Both numbers handily beat market expectations and further suggest the world’s second-largest economy has shifted into high gear.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices higher, hitting a 14-month high, and trading around $66.25 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is higher and hit another 3.5-month high overnight.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index and monthly wholesale trade.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but trading has been choppy at higher levels. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,856.00 and then at 3,880.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,786.50 and then at 3,775.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading as prices have been trending down for three weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral to bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,600.00 and then at the overnight high of 12,751.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,363.25 and then at last week’s low of 12,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and near last Friday’s contract low. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 157 16/32  and then at 158 even. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 155 27/32 and then at 155 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and near Friday’s contract low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.05.0 and then at Friday’s high of 132.17.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 131.23.0 and then at 131.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower and hit a nearly four-month low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum amid the recent steep sell off. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1957 and then at 1.2000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1850 and then at 1.1825. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and hit a 14-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $67.00 and then at the overnight high of $67.98. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $65.76 and then at $65.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. The data point of the week for the grain markets is the monthly USDA supply and demand report near midday Tuesday. Markets may remain choppy and sideways up until the late-March USDA planting intentions report, which is one of the most important grain market reports of the year. Grain market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are mostly trending up—both on a near-term and longer-term basis.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, March 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s Employment Situation Report for February from the U.S. Labor Department—arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen up 210,000 in February. A big miss from expectations on the non-farm jobs number would likely significantly move markets.

The marketplace is still buzzing about a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Thursday at a jobs summit. Powell said he does not see inflation becoming long-term problematic but it may see a short-term spike as the U.S. economy recovers from the pandemic later this year. Powell added that the recent rise in government bond yields is notable but also probably not a longer-term phenomenon. He also said the U.S. still faces a long road to full economic recovery. What traders took away from the speech is that the Fed appears willing to let bond yields rise (prices fall) without intervention from the central bank. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note saw its yield quickly push toward 1.6% after Powell’s comments, despite many analysts calling Powell’s remarks overall dovish on U.S. monetary policy. It’s been said many times that bond traders are the smartest traders around. What the bond market is telling the marketplace is that bond traders really do not believe Powell’s assessment that inflation will not continue to heat up in the coming months, and that higher inflation in the coming months could prompt the Fed to raise interest rates much sooner than many had reckoned up until just recently. The U.S. Treasury’s 10-year note was yielding 1.54% early Friday morning.

In other overnight news, China’s economic leaders set the world’s second-largest economy’s annual growth rate for 2021 at 6% or above. That figure was seen as modest by some economists, who are predicting China’s gross domestic product to advance at an 8% clip this year. On the inflation front, China’s officials are looking for around 3% consumer price inflation on the year.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices solidly higher, hitting a 14-month high, and trading around $65.50 a barrel. An OPEC meeting this week saw the cartel and Russia ostensibly stand pat on crude oil production levels, when most thought the members would ramp up production levels by at least 500,000 barrels a day, if not 1 million. Crude oil prices shot higher as that news hit the wires on Thursday.

Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is higher is higher and hit a 3.5-month high overnight, supported by the rise in U.S. Treasury yields.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the international trade report and consumer credit.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading after hitting a four-week low on Thursday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,800.00 and then at Thursday’s high of 3,832.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,710.50 and then at 3,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly weaker after hitting a nearly three-month low on Thursday. Bulls are fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,500.00 and then at 12,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,296.50 and then at 12,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and near the recent contract low. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 157 15/32  and then at 158 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 156 14/32 and then at the contract low of 156 8/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and near the recent contract low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.17.0 and then at 132.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.05.5 and then at the contract low of 131.31.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower and hit a more-than-three-month low in early U.S. trading. Bears have gained the overall near-term technical advantage amid the recent sell off. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2000 and then at 1.2050. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1940 and then at 1.1900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher and hit a 14-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $66.00 and then at $67.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $63.82 and then at $63.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Markets may remain choppy and sideways up until the late-March USDA planting intentions report, which is one of the most important grain market reports of the year. Grain market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are mostly trending up—both on a near-term and longer-term basis. Grains may be impacted more by the outside markets in the near term, if they become significantly more volatile, such as the stock, bond and currency markets.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, March 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are keeping a wary eye on government bond yields, which have been generally rising recently, and which have again made stock markets wobbly late this week. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently trading around 1.462% for its yield.

The marketplace today will closely scrutinize a speech around noon EST by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell today at a jobs summit. Traders are hoping Powell will talk about rising government bond yields and inflation prospects.

Traders are also awaiting Friday morning’s Employment Situation Report for February from the U.S. Labor Department—arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen up 210,000 in February.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices weaker and trading around $61.00 a barrel. An OPEC meeting began Thursday that the marketplace will closely monitor. It could be that with oil prices above $60 a barrel that the cartel opens up its oil spigots some more, after curbing production in recent months to prop up prices. Early reports say Saudi Arabia and Russia are discussing a joint output increase of 1 million barrels a day. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is firmer early today.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, revised productivity and costs, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, and monthly chain store sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and hit a four-week low. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,809.75 and then at 3,850.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,767.00 and then at 3,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker and hit a two-month low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,696.00 and then at 12,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,503.00 and then at 12,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading on tepid short covering. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 159 even and then at 160 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 157 27/32 and then at 157 14/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 133.16.0 and then at this week’s high of 133.23.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.27.5 and then at 132.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field amid recent choppy trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2088 and then at this week’s high of 1.2139. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2053 and then at this week’s low of 1.2019. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $62.00 and then at $63.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $60.52 and then at $60.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mostly firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Markets may remain choppy and sideways up until the late-March USDA planting intentions report, which is one of the most important grain market reports of the year. Grain market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are mostly trending up—both on a near-term and longer-term basis.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, March 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Marketplace attitudes are upbeat at mid-week after President Biden said on Tuesday all Americans wanting a Covid vaccine should be able to get one by the end of May. Also, the U.S. government is getting closer to rolling out its newest pandemic assistance package that totals $1.9 trillion. “We can see light at the end of the tunnel of the pandemic,” said one market analyst.

In overnight news, the Euro zone services purchasing managers index (PMI) in February came in at 45.7 compared to 45.4 in January. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector.

The U.S. data point of the day will be the ADP national employment report for February, which is expected to come in at up 225,000 jobs, following a 174,000 gain in January. This report is a precursor to Friday morning’s employment situation report from the U.S. Labor Department—arguably the most important U.S. economic report of the month.

Traders and investors are still keeping one eye on government bond yields, which have been generally rising recently, and which have made stock markets a bit wobbly at times. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently trading around 1.446% for its yield. Many veteran market watchers believe U.S. Treasury yields will continue to climb in the coming months.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices higher and trading around $61.85 a barrel. There is an OPEC meeting on Thursday that the marketplace will closely monitor. It could be that with oil prices above $60 a barrel that the cartel opens up its oil spigots some more, after curbing production in recent months to prop up prices. The U.S. dollar index is a bit firmer early today.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the U.S. services purchasing managers index (PMI), the ISM report on business services, the global services PMI, the Federal Reserve’s beige book and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are not far below the recent contract and record high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,901.75 and then at last week’s high of 3,924.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 3,855.25 and then at 3,825.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,181.00 and then at this week’s high of 13,316.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,945.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 159 29/32 and then at this week’s high of 160 26/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 158 18/32 and then at 158 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 133.23.0 and then at 133.28.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.06.5 and then at this week’s low of 133.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field amid recent choppy trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2139 and then at 1.2175. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.2050 and then at this week’s low of 1.2019. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of $61.21 and then at $62.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $59.24 and then at $59.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, on profit taking from the shorter-term traders. Not much new. Markets may be quieter up until the late-March USDA planting intentions report, which is one of the most important grain market reports of the year. Grain market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are mostly trending up—both on a near-term and longer-term basis.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff