The bull market runs in the grains are now mature, but they are still alive and well. Grain futures markets are not far below their recent multi-year highs and price uptrends are still in place on a longer-term basis. Also, the planting and growing season for U.S. crops is just over the horizon, and that’s when weather markets pop up more years than not. The grain markets will be extra sensitive to the weather this year, given their tight supply and demand balance in place. Stay tuned!– Jim
Daily Morning Report
Rising bond yields starting to worry stock market bulls
Monday, February 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The stock market traders are taking note of the competing asset class of government bonds, as the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is currently fetching 1.369%, a one-year high. Still, one stock market analyst said U.S. T-Note yields would have to rise to around 4% to become competitive with the U.S. technology stock sector, on a return on investment basis. And overall trader and investor risk sentiment remains low, as the U.S. government is set to roll out a new, big financial stimulus package for Americans. Also, Covid-19 infections are on the decline while vaccines are continuing to ramp up.
Inflation concerns in the marketplace are on the rise. Broker SP Angel said Monday morning in an email dispatch: “As the U.S., China, EU, U.K. and beyond all look to roll out their own packages of environmental initiatives, the post-crisis consumption of industrial metals is widely expected to outstrip near-term and medium-term supply. Inflation expectations have also helped base metals, with copper prices rising 18% for every 1% in consumer prices since 1992. Goldman Sachs reported last week the copper market is facing the largest deficit in a decade this year, with a high risk of scarcity over the coming months.” Many raw commodity futures market prices are trending up at present.
The marketplace is looking ahead to Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell’s testimony on U.S. monetary policy to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday.
The key “outside markets” today sees Nymex crude oil futures prices are up and trading around $59.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index, leading economic indicators, and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,914.50 and then at the record high of 3,936.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,861.25 and then at 3,840.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,500.00 and then at 13,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,300.00 and then at 13,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 163 2/32 and then at 163 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 162 2/32 and then at 161 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are down in early U.S. trading and hit a contract low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 135.14.5 and then at 135.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 135.01.0 and then at 134.28.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has been choppy. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.2150 and then at the February high of 1.2176. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2096 and then at 1.2050. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend firmly in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $60.18 and then at $61.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $58.82 and then at $58.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices mostly trending up—both on a near-term and longer-term basis. Overall supply and demand fundamentals remain bullish for the grains.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Stock market bulls eyeing rising bond yields
Friday, February 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Global equity markets are ending a mixed week on a quiet note. Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index was broadly unchanged, while Japan’s Topix index closed 0.7% lower. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was up a bit.
Said broker SP Angel in an email dispatch this morning: “Copper and nickel prices continued to rally on Friday, powering to multi-year highs along with tin as the world looks to build its way out of a Covid-fueled recession. Investors are starting to appreciate that there is insufficient mine capacity to enable rapid transition to a more environmentally conscious global economy. As the U.S., China, EU, U.K. and beyond all look to roll out their own packages of environmental initiatives, the post-crisis demand for industrial metals is widely expected to outstrip near-term and medium-term supply.” As these industrial metals rise, it could be that safe-haven gold and silver markets could be pulled along for the ride.
The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index trading lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are solidly down and trading around $59.00 a barrel. The U.S. wants to talk with Iran on its nuclear ambitions, and that could put more Iranian oil on the world market in the coming months. The U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield is fetching 1.308%. Government bond yields are on the rise, offering a more competitive asset class that may be pulling money away from the stock markets.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. flash service and manufacturing PMIs, and existing home sales. U.S. economic data is suggesting the world’s largest economy is picking up steam, highlighted by this week’s retail sales report for January showing an unexpected surge.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Thursday’s high of 3,936.00 and then at the record high of 3,959.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,880.50 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,785.00 and then at the record high of 13,900.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,550.00 and then at this week’s low of 13,468.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a contract low on Wednesday. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 164 22/32 and then at Thursday’s high of 165 8/32. Shorter-term support lies at 164 even and then at the contract low of 163 17/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are down in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a contract low Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 135.28.5 and then at Thursday’s high of 136.02.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 135.20.0 and then at the contract low of 135.15.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has been choppy. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2150 and then at the February high of 1.2176. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.2100 and then at the overnight low of 1.2087. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
March Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading on profit taking after hitting a 13-month high Thursday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend firmly in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $60.20 and then at $61.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $58.59 and then at $58.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures are mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are not trading too far below their recent highs. Overall supply and demand fundamentals are bullish for the grains. Right now the path of least resistance for grain prices remains sideways to higher.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
USDX languishes near term, but longer-term bearish
The U.S. dollar index is a basket of six major world currencies stacked up against the U.S. dollar. See on the daily bar chart that the USDX is trading in choppy fashion at lower price levels. However, the weekly USDX chart shows that despite the recent sideways price action in the greenback, prices are still in a steep longer-term downtrend. The devaluation of the U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market argues for higher inflationary price pressures, given that the dollar is still the world’s reserve currency and that most commodities on the world market are priced in U.S. dollars—making then cheaper to purchase in non-U.S. currency. Read that as better demand for those commodities. Stay tuned!– Jim
Rising bond yields in focus
Thursday, February 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed but mostly weaker overnight. Mainland China markets were open Thursday after being closed several days for the Lunar New Year holiday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. There is still scant risk aversion in the marketplace at present and that’s bullish for equities.
However, rising government bond yields are a focus of the marketplace this week and that competing asset does have the stock market bulls a bit worried. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note reached its highest yield in a year earlier this week and is currently fetching 1.282%. If U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, investors would be more inclined lock in those higher returns. For perspective, the German 10-year bond (bund) yield stands at -0.359% and the U.K. bond (gilt) yield is 0.585%.
Copper futures prices hit a nine-year high Thursday, as the red industrial metal is surging on ideas of strong demand in the coming months as major economies shift into high gear with the pandemic likely tamped down.
The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index trading lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly lower and trading around $61.00 a barrel.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, the new house price index, new residential construction and building permits, import and export prices, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting a contract and record high Tuesday. Bulls still have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,936.00 and then at the record high of 3,959.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,896.50 and then at 3,878.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are down on profit taking after hitting a record high Tuesday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at overnight high of 13,723.25 and then at 13,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,543.00 and then at 13,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a contract low on Wednesday. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 165 8/32 and then at this week’s high of 165 28/32. Shorter-term support lies at 164 even and then at the contract low of 163 17/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a contract low Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 136.02.0 and then at 136.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 135.24.0 and then at 135.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but trading has been choppy. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 1.2112 and then at 1.2150. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.2029 and then at 1.2000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
March Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and hit a 13-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend firmly in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $62.26 and then at $63.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $59.43 and then at $59.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures are mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. The bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are not trading too far below their recent highs. Overall supply and demand fundamentals are bullish for the grains. Right now the path of least resistance for grain prices remains sideways to higher.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Stock markets pause ahead of busy U.S. data day
Wednesday, February 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. Mainland China markets remain closed for the Lunar New Year holiday but will open Thursday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward steady to weaker openings and new record highs when the New York day session begins. There remains little risk aversion in the marketplace, what with the pandemic loosening its grip on many major countries and economies expected to rebound strongly as this year progresses.
It’s a very busy day for U.S. economic data Wednesday, including the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, retail sales, the producer price index, industrial production and capacity utilization, manufacturing and trade inventories, the NAHB housing market index and the FOMC minutes.
Bitcoin hit another record high overnight and traded well above $50,000. The keener investor interest in Bitcoin and other crypto currencies could be taking away some of the allure for historical safe-haven assets gold and silver.
The platinum futures market this week hit a 6.5-year high. An email dispatch from the broker SP Angel said the following: “Europe takes the lead in the race for hydrogen in a move which will likely drive platinum prices higher. Most of the world’s planned hydrogen projects and the biggest chunk of related investments this decade are expected to be in Europe. The EU has made hydrogen a key plank in its aim to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, with plans to install 40GW of electrolyzers this decade. Of the 228 hydrogen projects announced globally, 55% of them (126) are in Europe. Hydrogen Council members–including Royal Dutch Shell Plc, BMW, Microsoft Corp and Sinopec–plan to increase hydrogen investments six-fold through to 2025, from 2019 levels. Platinum catalysts for reforming hydrogen and for fuel cells are likely to see increasing demand from the new drive to produce and use hydrogen.”
The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index trading higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are firmer and trading around $60.75 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is currently fetching around 1.3%–the highest level in a year.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract and record high Tuesday. Bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 3,959.25 and then at 3,980.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,900.00 and then at 3,878.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down after hitting a record high Tuesday. Bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 13,900.50 and then at 14,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,694.00 and then at 13,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low overnight. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 165 even and then at this week’s high of 165 28/32. Shorter-term support lies at 164 even and then at the overnight contract low of 163 17/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up and hit a contract low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 135.28.5 and then at 136.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 135.17.0 and then at 135.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.2100 and then at the overnight high of 1.2112. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.2050 and then at 1.2000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
March Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend firmly in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $60.95 and then at $62.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $59.51 and then at $59.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures are mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. The bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Overall supply and demand fundamentals are bullish for the grains. Right now the path of least resistance for grain prices remains sideways to higher.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff