Daily Morning Report

Monday, November 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk sentiment is more upbeat to start the trading week, as another vaccine trial, this time from the U.K.’s Oxford University and AstraZeneca, was shown to be 90% effective. There is a general consensus in the marketplace that by the second half of 2021 the pandemic will be tamped down and economies will be well on the road to returning to normal. Still, there were more than 142,000 new U.S. Covid-19 infections reported Sunday and record hospitalizations for the 13th straight day, suggesting the pandemic is still raging out of control. Europe is also reeling from the impact of the virus.

The Euro zone flash purchasing managers index (PMI) showed the region heading toward a possible double-dip recession, with November’s data the first since severe lockdown measures were re-introduced in many areas. The flash composite PMI fell to 45.1 in November vs 50.0 in October. The Euro zone manufacturing PMI fell to 53.6 vs 54.8 last month and 53.1 expected. The services PMI fell to 41.3 vs 46.9 in October and 42.5 expected.

The U.S. dollar index is lower early today and hit a seven-week low. The other important outside market sees January Nymex crude oil futures prices firmer and trading around $42.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading at 0.85%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index, the U.S. flash manufacturing PMI, and the flash services PMI.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and prices are not far below the recent high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,600.00 and then at last week’s high of 3,637.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 3,542.25 and then at 3,525.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, but stiff resistance layers lie just above the market. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 12,096.25 and then at the October high of 12,249.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,891.50 and then at last week’s low of 11,804.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 174 even and then at last week’s high of 174 9/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 173 13/32 and then at 173 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 138.17.5 and then at last week’s high of 138.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 138.09.0 and then at 138.04.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the November high of 1.1954 and then at 1.2000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1890 and then at 1.1850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit an 11-week high. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $43.36 and then at $44.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $42.29 and then at Friday’s low of $41.61. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are solidly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. The grain market bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place in all three markets. There are no strong, early clues to suggest that market tops are close at hand. On tap today will be the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, November 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. It appears traders and investors are caught between a surge in Covid-19 infections and the hopes for a vaccine. Positive vaccine news continues to be reported, with some of the general public possibly starting to get inoculated as soon as next month. Yet, Covid cases in the U.S. and Europe are raging and new infections are setting record highs by the day. More and more U.S. and European businesses are being restricted as local and state governments work to slow down the pandemic’s spread.

Hopes for a U.S. financial aid package American workers dimmed further on Thursday when U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin declined to extend U.S. emergency loan programs and requested the Federal Reserve return to the Treasury yet-unused funds used in those programs, which are set to expire at the end of the year. The Fed declined, saying those programs are still working to stabilize the U.S. economy. This move appears to be in concert with other ongoing Trump administration efforts to not recognize the incoming president, Joe Biden, or at the very least make his transition into office as rocky as possible.

In other news reports said investors pulled $4 billion from gold-backed exchange traded funds last week, which is the largest-ever weekly outflow, according to Bank of America.

The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early today. The other important outside market sees January Nymex crude oil futures prices firmer and trading around $42.30 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading at 0.84%.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and prices are not far below the recent spike high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,600.00 and then at this week’s high of 3,637.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,542.25 and then at 3,525.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, but stiff resistance layers lie just above the market. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,096.25 and then at the October high of 12,249.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,923.50 and then at 11,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 174 9/32 and then at 175 even. Shorter-term support lies at 173 even and then at 172 24/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 138.28.0 and then at 138.24.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at Thursday’s low of 138.07 and then at 138.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1925 and then at the November high of 1.1954. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1849 and then at 1.1800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $42.68 and then at the November high of $43.33. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $41.61 and then at this week’s low of $40.40. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are higher to solidly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. The grain market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place in all three markets. There are no strong, early clues to suggest that market tops are close at hand.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, November 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Increasing restrictions on businesses and the public in the U.S. and Europe, to fight off the out-of-control Covid-19 pandemic, are starting to bite global equity markets, after they had been looking past the matter because of the upbeat vaccine news recently. Hope has been clashing with fear in the marketplace, and on this day it appears fear is winning the battle. New U.S. Covid infections topped 170,000 Wednesday and the U.S. death toll has moved above a quarter-million citizens.

News reports said Goldman Sachs is forecasting bull markets in raw commodities as a hedge against impending inflation. Goldman forecast a return of around 27% over the next 12-months on the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) index, with a 19% return for precious metals, 40% for energy, 3% for industrial metals and a -1% return on agriculture. The grain futures markets are already in a major bull run. Goldman reportedly kept its target of $2,300 an ounce for gold and $30 an ounce for silver.

The U.S. dollar index is higher early today on a corrective bounce from selling pressure earlier this week. Many analysts are predicting further depreciation in the coming months for the greenback on the foreign exchange market. The other important outside market sees crude oil prices lower and trading around $41.15 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading at 0.85%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, existing home sales, leading economic indicators, and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and prices are not far below the recent spike high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,600.00 and then at this week’s high of 3,637.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,542.50 and then at 3,525.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are modestly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, but stiff resistance layers lie just above the market. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,000.00 and then at this week’s high of 12,096.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,804.50 and then at 11,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 173 15/32 and then at 174 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 172 24/32 and then at 172 5/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 138.13.0 and then at this week’s high of 138.16.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 138.07 and then at 138.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1886 and then at this week’s high of 1.1925. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1849 and then at 1.1800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $42.08 and then at this week’s high of $42.68. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $41.57 and then at this week’s low of $40.40. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. Profit taking from recent gains is featured. Also, today’s risk-off trader mentality is negative for the grains. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. The grain market bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place in all three markets.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, November 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up overnight, while U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is presently grappling with the specter of a Covid-19 vaccine coming to the public in the coming months that will likely give economies a strong boost, while at the same time realizing it’s going to be a grim winter as the pandemic continues to rage in many areas around the globe, including the U.S. and parts of Europe.

Also weighing on trader/investor sentiment is the likelihood that no new U.S. government stimulus package is on horizon despite millions of Americans struggling after Covid wiped out their jobs.

In overnight news, the Euro zone October consumer price index rose 0.2% from September and was down 0.3%, year-on-year. Those numbers were in line with market expectations and still don’t show any signs of problematic inflation any time soon. Once the pandemic is under control and economies start to recover rapidly, that’s likely when producer and consumer prices could start to rise at a faster clip.

The U.S. dollar index is lower again early today and the greenback bears are having a good week. The other important outside market sees crude oil prices firmer and trading around $41.80 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading at 0.86%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, new residential construction and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and prices are not far below the recent spike high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,637.00 and then at the November high of 3,668.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,585.75 and then at 3,550.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,096.25 and then at the October high of 12,249.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,851.75 and then at 11,775.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 173 15/32 and then at 174 even. Shorter-term support lies at 172 even and then at this week’s low of 171 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 138.16.5 and then at 138.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 138.00 and then at this week’s low of 137.27.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1925 and then at the November high of 1.1954. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1849 and then at 1.1800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $42.09 and then at the November high of $43.06. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $41.08 and then at this week’s low of $40.15. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are narrowly mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. The grain market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place in all three markets. While there are no overwhelming technical clues that market tops are close at hand in the grains, there are a few technical signals that are suggesting market tops are probably close at hand. Watch for my bi-weekly newsletter that will be out later this week.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff